High profile European politicians are worried that the skirmishes in the Ukraine are the start of another major revolution. Charles McPhedran explains what led protestors to occupy Kiev.<\/i><\/p>\n
Back in early November, Germany was confident, even cocky, about the political direction Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovich would take going forward. Ukraine would soon be in its camp, officials hinted at the time.<\/p>\n
The country\u2019s head of state, Joachim Gauck, had just intervened personally in the case of Yulia Timoshenko, the jailed Ukrainian opposition leader, demanding she be freed to fly to Germany for medical treatment.<\/p>\n
In November, German diplomats felt sure this would soon happen. Staff at the German embassy in Kiev told a source that they expected Ukraine to release Timoshenko in a matter of weeks. Freeing her was thought to be one of the last obstacles preventing the country entering an economic and political pact with the European Union.<\/p>\n
But Yanukovich had other ideas. His supporters in parliament rejected Timoshenko\u2019s release and the president made the EU deal contingent on a 20 billion euro bailout from Brussels, the German government now says. Kiev is near broke because it cannot effectively finance itself on the markets. When it borrows, the country has to pay higher interest rates than Greece does.<\/p>\n
Europe, say German officials, could not accept those terms for a deal then. A big bailout for Ukraine would have required unanimous approval by heads of government. Given Yanukovich\u2019s anti-democratic reputation, the bailout was a politically unpalatable idea. German voters, already angered by bailouts to Southern European EU states, would have viewed the idea very unfavourably indeed.<\/p>\n
So Europe said no. And then Yanukovich told the EU he wasn\u2019t interested in a pact. The bloc reacted with a show of outrage. The Lithuanian government released a behind-the-scenes video showing German Chancellor Angela Merkel ticking off Yanukovich at a EU summit on 29 November.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe see you here,\u201d says Merkel in the video, her face slightly contorted and her body language standoffish. \u201cBut we expected more.\u201d<\/p>\n
A day later, large protests began in Kiev. And they have since gained momentum with each attempt of the government to disperse the crowds. Protestors\u2019 anger was stoked further when, in mid-December, Vladimir Putin granted Yanukovich the bailout he had sought from Brussels.<\/p>\n
Yet only two weeks ago was a turning point reached. The Ukrainian president signed a decree banning several forms of protest. Thereafter, protestors began answering to police truncheons with Molotov cocktails and burning barricades.<\/p>\n
On 19 January, the crowds, with far-right extremists on the frontline, tried to break through police lines and storm the country\u2019s parliament. Protestors also attacked opposition leader Vitali Klitschko, arguably the most high profile of Ukraine\u2019s parliamentary opposition leaders abroad.<\/p>\n
That night triggered subsequent days of bloodletting in the country. Protestors unleashed a medieval armory \u2014 including burning rags, catapults and stones \u2014 on police. Officers responded by firing water cannons in sub-zero temperatures.<\/p>\n
Just over a week later, facing an unmanageable situation as protests spread throughout the country, Prime Minister Mykola Azarov, a man whom demonstrators viewed as a hardliner, resigned his post. The cabinet quit too. And days later, the target of the protest’s anger, President Yanukovich, went on sick leave.<\/p>\n
The government has made major concessions to protesters. Even so, Europe now worries that the situation in Ukraine is headed towards civil war or revolution. German officials compare developments in the country with those in Russia nearly a century ago:<\/p>\n
\u201cIn ten of 27 provinces, there\u2019s now been a change in government,\u201d Merkel\u2019s Russia coordinator Gernot Erler told a media conference on Thursday. \u201cIn the east, bands of veterans equipped with truncheons have mobilised to stop that happening.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cIn Lviv [a major city in Western Ukraine], a people\u2019s parliament and executive have been formed. They remind me personally of the October [Bolshevik Russian] Revolution.\u201d<\/p>\n
All the same, protestors do not share the Bolsheviks\u2019 ideology. Since that new violent phase in the protests began two weeks ago, Kiev\u2019s demonstrators have become more and more radical.<\/p>\n
What began as a pro-European movement is now increasingly dominated by the far right. Ukraine\u2019s opposition leaders, European diplomats and politicians assert, have lost control of the crowds. Even the anti-immigration, anti-liberal-democratic Svoboda Party is no longer right wing enough for many people.<\/p>\n
Kiev\u2019s Independence Square, at the heart of the protests for over two months, is now in the grip of two opposition factions: Pravy Sektor and Spilna Sprava. The former is a group of far-right militias, its composition ranging from monarchists to football hooligans. The latter is a loose grouping of patriotic but pro-European militants, whose aim is the toppling of the government through occupations.<\/p>\n