{"id":44112,"date":"2014-07-07T12:00:23","date_gmt":"2014-07-07T11:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=44112"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:33:42","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:33:42","slug":"tooling-up-for-war-can-japan-benefit-from-lifting-the-arms-export-ban","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2014\/07\/tooling-up-for-war-can-japan-benefit-from-lifting-the-arms-export-ban\/","title":{"rendered":"Tooling Up for War: Can Japan Benefit from Lifting the Arms Export Ban?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"abe<\/a><\/p>\n

28 Jun 2014 – Abe\u2019s decision to end the nation\u2019s four-decade ban on selling weapons in April reflected an intention to take a hard-nosed approach that builds military and technical alliances to counterbalance China\u2019s rise. But what does it all mean? And, more importantly, who is expected to benefit from the deal?<\/em><\/p>\n

The Paris-based Eurosatory is one of the world\u2019s biggest defense and security industry trade shows, drawing specialists from nearly 90 countries to view the latest in military hardware. Among the tanks, drones, military helicopters and police riot vehicles that were exhibited last month, 13 Japanese companies set up shop for the first time.<\/p>\n

The Japanese delegation included the country\u2019s largest military contractor, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, along with some of its biggest corporate stars: Mitsubishi Electronics, Kawasaki Steel, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Toshiba and NEC. They brought with them tank engines, radars, missile technology and other high-tech goodies.<\/p>\n

Although small in scale, the delegation was one of the clearest signs yet that Japan\u2019s military contractors are touting for business in the wake of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe\u2019s surprise decision earlier this year to end the nation\u2019s four-decade ban on selling weapons and military hardware. The decision is another milestone in the country\u2019s steady retreat from its postwar pacifism.<\/p>\n

Japanese troops have not fired a weapon in war since the military was defanged by the U.S. Occupation in 1945, and the nation\u2019s corporate sector has more or less observed a total ban on weapons exports since the 1970s. In April, Abe announced a change in Japan\u2019s three principles of \u201carms exports\u201d to \u201cdefense equipment transfer.\u201d<\/p>\n

Washington welcomed the decision.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe believe this is a good step,\u201d U.S. State Department spokesperson Marie Harf said. \u201cWhat the change really does is allow Japan to modernize its defense industry and processes so it can participate in the 21st-century global acquisition marketplace.\u201d<\/p>\n

The shift away from Japan\u2019s core anti-war principles is far from popular. A poll in the liberal Asahi newspaper in April said 77 percent of voters are against ending the weapons ban. A survey by Kyodo News in June found opposition to Abe\u2019s attempt to end the ban on collective self-defense growing \u2014 up from about 48 to 55 percent in a single month \u2014 despite the staunch support of the nation\u2019s largest newspaper, the conservative Yomiuri.<\/p>\n

Perhaps for this reason, the defense shift is sugarcoated in innocuous language to avoid ringing alarm bells at home and ruffling diplomatic feathers in Asia.<\/p>\n

The new export guidelines will \u201chelp maintain global peace and security,\u201d the government says.<\/p>\n

In 2013, Abe told the United Nations that Japan will \u201cnewly bear\u201d the flag of \u201cproactive pacifism,\u201d an unintentionally Orwellian-sounding phrase that stands in for a potentially more controversial one: confronting rising China.<\/p>\n

A month before Abe\u2019s U.N. speech, Japan launched the Izumo, a 250-meter-long \u201cflat-topped destroyer\u201d loaded with helicopters destined for \u201chumanitarian missions.\u201d Named after a World War II armored cruiser that was sunk by the U.S. Navy in 1945, the warship joins two other helicopter ships that China and others have branded \u201cquasi-aircraft carriers.\u201d<\/p>\n

The distinction in terminology is crucial, said Mark Rowson, a defense specialist with Thales, a multinational defense contractor based in France. Aircraft carriers imply a projection of force well beyond Japan\u2019s shores, he said. The Izumo is almost certainly equipped to carry small numbers of F-35 jets, a generation of fighter aircraft, including vertical takeoff versions, produced by a consortium of U.S. allies led by contractor Lockheed Martin.<\/p>\n

Many analysts see the launch of the Izumo as the first step in the buildup of an eventual battle carrier group.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s the sort of reverse of China,\u201d a regional security analyst said, speaking on condition of anonymity. China has \u201ca couple of big toys\u201d \u2014 notably its Liaoning aircraft carrier, bought second-hand from Ukraine and refitted \u2014 but it \u201cdoesn\u2019t know how to use them,\u201d he said. \u201cJapan is building up capabilities the other way round, steadily building knowledge, capability, operational know-how and integrating steadily more advanced platforms and missions with the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Defense Ministry will not officially admit to these claims. \u201cIn my opinion, that\u2019s the reason Japan could not explain why it had rejected a competing bid by the Eurofighter Typhoon (in 2011),\u201d said Michel Theoval, a defense analyst and senior vice chairman of the European Business Council in Japan. \u201cJapan wants to use it to carry the carrier-borne F-35.\u201d The Ministry of Defense denies this claim.<\/p>\n

\u2018Hothouse industry\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

For years, Japanese defense contractors such as Mitsubishi Heavy and Kawasaki Steel have made small numbers of expensive submarines, tanks, fighters and other weapons for a single customer \u2014 the Self-Defense Forces. The price tag for a single Soryu, the world\u2019s largest diesel submarine, built by Mitsubishi Heavy and Kawasaki Heavy, for example, is reportedly $2 billion.<\/p>\n

Lance Gatling, a leading Tokyo-based military analyst and broker, called defense in Japan a \u201chothouse industry producing at tremendous cost.\u201d<\/p>\n

Pressure for change has long been building but Gatling said it was the F-35, what he called the world\u2019s largest, most expensive military program, that tipped the balance. \u201cJapan said, \u2018We want to take part in this too,\u2019\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n

The country\u2019s pacifist rules severely restricted cooperation with the multinational consortium that builds the jet.<\/p>\n

Relaxing these rules and allowing domestic firms to sell abroad will cut unit costs and allow economies of scale, said Narushige Michishita, a security specialist at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.<\/p>\n

\u201cAt the height of the Cold War we maintained perhaps 1,200 tanks. Now we have 300,\u201d he said. \u201cIt\u2019s a waste of money making 300 tanks.\u201d<\/p>\n

The move will also help Japan modernize its weaponry, boost what the industry calls \u201cinteroperability\u201d and weed out uncompetitive contractors. And with big military contracts such as the F-35 and missile defense, it will allow a bigger say in what gets built, and why.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe cost and effort required to develop high-tech fighters and missiles has become so huge, we can\u2019t just throw money at it,\u201d Michishita said. \u201cNow, our concerns will be incorporated into the design of new equipment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Underlying the drive away from the country\u2019s pacifist principles, however, is a deeper concern, say analysts: American decline.<\/p>\n

Earlier this year, Yosuke Isozaki, a security adviser to Abe, became the latest conservative politician to forecast this decline, and its consequences for Japan.<\/p>\n

\u201cTruth be told, the U.S. can no longer afford to play the world\u2019s policeman,\u201d he told a conservative seminary sponsored by the Yomiuri. \u201cThis is no longer an era when Japan is permitted to do nothing and count on America to protect it. It\u2019s become extremely important we do our own share alongside the U.S.\u201d<\/p>\n

Shigeru Ishiba, secretary-general of Abe\u2019s Liberal Democratic Party, has long held similar views.<\/p>\n

\u201cChina\u2019s defense spending will continue its double-digit growth, enhancing its relative strength and reducing America\u2019s power,\u201d he told delegates at the same meeting.<\/p>\n

Such fears have prompted Japan to end its long decline in military spending. Global military spending actually fell 1.9 percent last year to $1.75 trillion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. But military expenditure in Asia and Oceania was up 3.6 per cent, mostly thanks to a 7.4 per cent increase by China, which spent an estimated $188 billion.<\/p>\n

Some Western nations refuse to sell weapons to China but while lagging far behind the U.S. and Europe, the planet\u2019s second largest economy has become an increasingly sophisticated and self-sufficient military power. Its capacity to project this power across the seas around Japan will grow as it bumps up against the historical limits imposed on it by once stronger powers.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe may have to come up with an Asian version of NATO,\u201d Narushige said. \u201cLoosely defined, loosely networked and excluding China.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2018Change in mindset\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is against this background that Abe announced the three new defense export principles. Although the prime minister rhetorically insists Japan\u2019s door for dialogue with Beijing is open, Abe increasingly appears to favor a hard-nosed approach that builds military and technical alliances to counterbalance China\u2019s rise.<\/p>\n

\u201cCooperation in military equipment must be part of Japan\u2019s proactive peace strategies,\u201d he said earlier this year.<\/p>\n

Defense analysts are still trying to determine what this will mean in practice. In the view of Keidanren, Japan\u2019s largest business lobby, Abe\u2019s initiative will cut red tape and create what Satoshi Tsuzukibashi, head of its defense-production committee, called \u201ca change in mindset\u201d in the domestic defense industry.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fact that we can cooperate with foreign companies is important,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He predicts the initial impact, however, will be small. The big contractors will try to sell more, and work more closely with foreign partners.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut companies that aren\u2019t directly involved in defense now, such as Sony, will be careful about their image,\u201d Tsuzukibashi said. He said other Japanese companies with interests in China will tread warily for fear of a backlash.<\/p>\n

One immediate likely impact of Abe\u2019s announcement will be increased sales of patrol vessels and military equipment to Vietnam, the Philippines and other regional allies, analysts say. Japan and India have already reportedly agreed to promote the export of the ShinMaywa US-2 amphibious rescue aircraft, Japan\u2019s first overseas military sales since 1967. Australia is in talks to buy the 4,200-ton Soryu submarine.<\/p>\n

A steady trickle of representatives from European defense companies has visited Japan in the last year to discuss tie-ups. One possible French project is the creation of an underwater, unmanned vehicle for mine hunting, using Mitsubishi Heavy Industries technology. Japan\u2019s main military research lab, the Technical Research and Development Institute, has agreed to collaborate with the United Kingdom to develop chemical and biological protective suits for the battlefield.<\/p>\n

\u201cJapan seems to be saying \u2018OK, let\u2019s try a small step, then we\u2019ll try another one,\u2019\u201d said Robin Wilson, chairman of the European Business Council\u2019s Defense Committee.<\/p>\n

He predicted that Japan\u2019s restrictions on collaboration and exports will continue.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere won\u2019t be a mass opening of the floodgates,\u201d Wilson said. Instead, he said Japanese companies selling more niche or dual-use technologies: radar and communications technologies, command and control systems and optical sensors.<\/p>\n

Most analysts agree that Japan will not be a big player in the global arms industry \u2014 at least for now. For one thing, 70 years of pacifism means its weaponry is not battle tested \u2014 a major selling point for U.S. and Russian military contractors, said Robert Dujarric, director of the Institute of Contemporary Asian Studies at Temple University Japan.<\/p>\n

For another, Japan has little experience in the global military marketplace and cannot offer the same sales support as its competitors.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen the U.S. sells arms to Japan or Korea, it\u2019s implicitly part of the bigger package of American military support,\u201d Dujarric said. \u201cJapan can\u2019t offer protection.\u201d<\/p>\n

Gatling agreed, saying the end of the ban raises \u201cinteresting possibilities\u201d but its impact remains to be seen.<\/p>\n

One key testing point will be missile technology. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is Japan\u2019s prime contractor for the Patriot missile defense system developed by Raytheon, one of the world\u2019s largest military contractors, producing high-tech missiles, bombs and battlefield control systems. The missile-defense system is designed to shoot down incoming missiles and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries helps builds its guidance system and rocket motor. U.S. defense officials have been pressuring Japan to export this technology, according to the Asian Nikkei Review.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe new rules pave the way for shipments of both prototypes and mass-produced items,\u201d the Asian Nikkei Review said.<\/p>\n

Amplified through a largely servile domestic media, Abe and his Cabinet argue that all of this is needed to \u201cdefend\u201d Japan and maintain \u201cpeace\u201d in Asia.<\/p>\n

An alternative view \u2014 that it could trigger an arms race and create the opposite effect \u2014 is less often heard, although it was recently aired by former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama.<\/p>\n

Speaking at the World Peace Forum in Beijing last month, Hatoyama said the purpose of \u201cproactive pacifism\u201d and using what he called the \u201cthreat of China\u201d was to push Japanese people toward accepting remilitarization.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere will be a day when Japan places the same emphasis on its relations with China as it does on the U.S. today,\u201d Hatoyama said.<\/p>\n

But first, he added, the two sides must avoid the \u201cspiral into conflict.\u201d<\/p>\n

*************<\/p>\n

Under the Peace Radar<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite being a pacifist country, Japan has a surprisingly large defense industry.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Japan is hardly the only ostensibly pacifist country with a large defense industry. Peace-loving Sweden is the world\u2019s third-largest weapons exporter per capita, after Israel and Russia. Sweden\u2019s anti-tank missiles and other items have ended up in Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and other countries with spotty human rights records, critics say.<\/p>\n

Like Japan, Germany has kept its troops at home since the end of World War II but sells more weapons than any other country besides the United States and Russia, according to The Economist.<\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s policy on exports has long contrasted to Japan\u2019s, said Robin Wilson, chairman of the European Business Council\u2019s Defense Committee. \u201cGermany is more about noninvolvement of its people in foreign conflict,\u201d he said, \u201cnot in proscribing equipment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Moreover, Japan\u2019s arms ban has always allowed \u201cexceptions.\u201d The Self-Defense Forces and its main domestic suppliers have long exchanged equipment and technology with the United States. The U.S. military uses Panasonic Corp.\u2019s laptop computers to guide drones, several sources say. Toyota\u2019s ubiquitous Land Cruiser is the vehicle of choice for guerilla fighters across the Middle East.<\/p>\n

Behind its own borders, Japan has built up a formidable military supply chain. It has more submarines than Britain and France put together and one of the largest navies in the world.<\/p>\n

The Defense Ministry and SDF deal with 4,568 private companies, 675 of which are in weapons manufacturing, according to business magazine Diamond Weekly. Only a handful, however, specialize in weapons.<\/p>\n

Japan\u2019s market for munitions sales is small and ranks outside the world\u2019s top 30.<\/p>\n

However, the end of Japan\u2019s weapons ban could still reverse this trend. The country\u2019s large manufacturers have a strong record in military equipment: Mitsubishi Heavy built the Zero fighter plane, Kawasaki Heavy built the \u201cHien\u201d Type 3 fighter. Dozens of electronics manufacturers also play core roles in the defense industry.<\/p>\n

In addition, the Defense Ministry\u2019s main weapons research facility, the Technical Research and Development Institute, was given a 55 percent annual budget increase last year \u2014 to \u00a5166 billion, according to Reuters.<\/p>\n

After years of staying low-key on defense, Japan is \u201ctooling up\u201d in the words of one analyst.<\/p>\n

*************<\/p>\n

Top 10 Domestic Munitions Companies<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries <\/strong>Fighter planes, helicopters, submarines, tanks and other army vehicles<\/p>\n

2. Mitsubishi Electronics<\/strong> Missiles, radar, communications systems<\/p>\n

3. Kawasaki Heavy Industries <\/strong>Submarines, engines for battleships, maritime patrol aircraft<\/p>\n

4. NEC<\/strong> Radar, sonar, communications\u2019 systems<\/p>\n

5. Ishikawajima-Harima Heavy Industries<\/strong> Escort ships, fighter planes, rockets<\/p>\n

6. Fujitsu<\/strong> Communications systems, radar<\/p>\n

7. Komatsu<\/strong> Tanks and special vehicles, guns for tanks<\/p>\n

8. Toshiba<\/strong> Missiles, radar, communications\u2019 systems<\/p>\n

9. Hitachi <\/strong>Sonar, mines detectors, ammunition carriers<\/p>\n

10. Daikin <\/strong>Missile heads, guns for tanks, ammunition<\/p>\n

Source: Diamond Weekly<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 japantimes.co.jp<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

28 Jun 2014 – Abe\u2019s decision to end the nation\u2019s four-decade ban on selling weapons in April reflected an intention to take a hard-nosed approach that builds military and technical alliances to counterbalance China\u2019s rise. But what does it all mean? And, more importantly, who is expected to benefit from the deal?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44112","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=44112"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/44112\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=44112"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=44112"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=44112"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}