{"id":49477,"date":"2014-11-10T12:00:40","date_gmt":"2014-11-10T12:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=49477"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:29:32","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:29:32","slug":"time-to-take-the-russia-china-axis-seriously","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2014\/11\/time-to-take-the-russia-china-axis-seriously\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to Take the Russia-China Axis Seriously"},"content":{"rendered":"

The current partnership between Russia and China is far from temporary.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Image<\/a>

Image Credit: Russian Presidential Press and Information Office.<\/p><\/div>\n

If you haven\u2019t already read it, Gilbert Rozman has an\u00a0incisive essay over at\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/a>\u00a0that explains why the contemporary iteration of close bilateral ties between Russia and China is here to stay. Rozman argues that we\u2019re not about to see a rehash of the Sino-Soviet split anytime soon for a variety of reasons \u2014 most related to national identity and ideology. What makes Rozman\u2019s argument remarkably convincing in my view is the complete absence of the United States\u2019 policy and position in Asia as a causal force in driving China and\u00a0Russia\u00a0together. Indeed, under Putin and Xi, China and Russia have come together organically as both countries\u2019 ideological directions and geopolitical impulses have converged. While the two aren\u2019t formal allies (and won\u2019t be anytime soon<\/a>), their potential combined impact on international relations in Asia and the world at large should not be understated.<\/p>\n

At the core of today\u2019s convergence between Russia and China is the common idea that the existing international order needs at least an alternative, and at most a complete overhaul. Both countries\u2019 elites experienced the global financial crisis of 2008 in similar ways and walked away from that experience with a degree of vindication that the Western way was by no means adequate. Similarly, Rozman notes that contemporary intellectual elites in both Russia and China have convincingly cast the West as a nefarious imperialist force, culpable for current unrest in Ukraine and Hong Kong. Given the prevalence of these narratives in both countries, nationalism remains directed at the West and not at the other.<\/p>\n

To be sure, Russia-China bilateral relations are by no means free of conflicting geopolitical interests. For example, Russia continues to serve as a primary source of arms for India and Vietnam \u2014 two countries with which China continues to actively wrangle over territorial issues. Based on open source information, it appears that Beijing has begrudgingly accepted the role that foreign military sales play in Russia\u2019s overall foreign policy. Meanwhile, as Putin prepares to turn his vision for a Eurasian Union into reality, it\u2019s hard to ignore Beijing\u2019s growing status as a regional and global leader. With\u00a0the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the\u00a0Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia<\/a>, BRICS and\u00a0its \u201cMarch West\u201d policy<\/a>, Beijing stands to overshadow Moscow in the Eurasian heartland in the coming decades. Although many of these institutions include Russia, Beijing\u2019s influence outweighs Moscow\u2019s considerably. As Rozman notes in his essay, Russian officials are wary of directly referencing China\u2019s rise in official rhetoric to avoid the uncomfortable nationalist impulses that arise from acknowledging a decline in relative power\u00a0vis-\u00e0-vis a neighbor. Instead, Russia-China diplomatic rhetoric is squarely focused on the positive sum \u2014 one prominent recent example includes the $400 billion natural gas deal<\/a> the two countries signed this summer.<\/p>\n

Rozman and other optimists about the strength of current China-Russia ties stop short of acknowledging the increasing lopsidedness of the partnership. In essence, under the current economic and geopolitical realities, Russia needs China far more than China needs Russia. Amid worsening ties with Europe (just as the price of oil nosedives), Russia has little option but to tether itself to the former Soviet space and to China. China is aware of Putin\u2019s fragile position. Informed speculation regarding the terms of the natural gas deal signed between Russia and China earlier this year suggests that Russia\u00a0may have conceded on pricing<\/a>\u00a0to seal in the deal \u2014 a coup for Putin in the short term, but a potential financial sinkhole for Russia over the 30-year term of the agreement.<\/p>\n

As I reflect on Rozman\u2019s arguments, another potential weak link that stands out in China-Russia ties is the potential departure of Putinism from Russian politics. While this seems unimaginable today, seeing as how a \u201cPutin doctrine<\/a>\u201d colors every corner of Russian foreign policy, short of an actual autocratic revolution, Russia will have a new leader in the future. Assuming current economic trends persist, Russia\u2019s next leader may be elected solely on the basis of economic revival. In this context, it\u2019s imaginable that a moderate, Medvedev-esque figure could return to the helm at the Kremlin with an Atlantic gaze, proffering better relations with Europe and the United States. While much of this remains in the realm of speculation, there are good reasons to believe that Putin\u2019s surge in popularity following Russian chauvinism in Ukraine will be ephemeral.<\/p>\n

A stable and long-term alignment between Russia and China will undoubtedly be a formidable force in international relations. Both states are serious participants in international diplomacy as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, and play critical roles in specialized diplomatic processes such as the ongoing nuclear negotiations with Iran and the Six Party Talks with North Korea. If, as Ian Bremmer has argued, we\u2019re heading into an\u00a0uncertain era of G-Zero<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 a world where U.S. hegemony is moribund with no clear successor \u2014 Russia and China will almost certainly emerge as a powerful bloc.<\/p>\n

At this point, everyone takes the rise of China seriously while dismissing Russia as a sick old bear, led by elites nostalgic for its Soviet\u00a0heyday. The current U.S. president dismissed Russia as\u00a0a weak regional power<\/a>. While that may be the case, it is too soon to write off the current convergence between Russia and China as a temporary marriage of convenience. With a powerful confluence of ideology and national interests, it\u2019s time for policymakers, especially in the West, to take the China-Russia partnership seriously.<\/p>\n

________________________________<\/p>\n

Ankit Panda is Associate Editor of\u00a0<\/em>The Diplomat. <\/em>He was previously a Research Specialist at Princeton University where he worked on international crisis diplomacy, international security, technology policy, and geopolitics. He has traveled extensively in Asia, and has lived in India, Malaysia, and Japan. He is a graduate of Princeton\u2019s Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 thediplomat.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Under Putin and Xi, China and Russia have come together organically as both countries\u2019 ideological directions and geopolitical impulses have converged. While the two aren\u2019t formal allies (and won\u2019t be anytime soon), their potential combined impact on international relations in Asia and the world at large should not be understated.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49477","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49477","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49477"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49477\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49477"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49477"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49477"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}