{"id":49794,"date":"2014-11-17T12:34:44","date_gmt":"2014-11-17T12:34:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=49794"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:29:31","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:29:31","slug":"what-really-happened-in-beijing-putin-obama-xi-and-the-back-story-the-media-wont-tell-you","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2014\/11\/what-really-happened-in-beijing-putin-obama-xi-and-the-back-story-the-media-wont-tell-you\/","title":{"rendered":"What Really Happened in Beijing: Putin, Obama, Xi \u2014 And the Back Story the Media Won\u2019t Tell You"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ukraine, Iran’s nukes, the price of oil: There are ties worthy of a Bourne film, if the media connected the dots.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"Russian<\/a>

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, looks back at US President Barack Obama, left, as they arrive with Chinese President Xi Jinping, right, at the the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit plenary session at the International Convention Center, Yanqi, Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014 in Beijing. (AP Photo\/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, Pool) (Credit: Pablo Martinez Monsivais)<\/p><\/div>\n

By way of events on the foreign side, the past few weeks start to resemble some once-in-a-while event in the heavens when everyone is supposed to go out and watch as the sun, moon and stars align. There are lots of things happening, and if we put them all together, the way Greek shepherds imagined constellations, a picture emerges. Time to draw the picture.<\/p>\n

The situation on the ground in Ukraine is getting messy again. Equally, events of the past year now leave Ukraine\u2019s economy not far from sheer extinction. You have not read of this because it does not fit the approved story, but Ukraine\u2019s heart barely beats. Further east, we hear in the financial markets that the ruble\u2019s decline brings Russia to the brink of another financial collapse.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s see. Oil prices are now below $80 a barrel. It costs me nearly $20 less to put gasoline in my car than it did a year ago, and good enough. But why has the price of crude tumbled in so short an interval? It makes little sense when you gather the facts, and \u2014 goes without saying \u2014 you get no help with that from our media.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s keep on trucking. Secretary of State Kerry went to Oman for another round of talks on the Iranian nuclear question last weekend. Russia recently emerged as a potentially key part of a deal, which will be the make-or-break of Kerry\u2019s record. In effect, he now greets Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov with one hand and punches him well below the belt with the other. Somewhere beyond our view this must make sense.<\/p>\n

En avant!<\/em> Obama went to Beijing last week for a sit-down with Xi Jinping, who makes Vladimir Putin look like George McGovern when he wants to, which is not infrequently. Still in the Chinese capital, our president then attended a meeting with other Asian leaders to push a trade agreement, one primary purpose of which is to isolate China by bringing the rest of the region into the neoliberal fold. (Or trying to. Washington will never get the overladen, overimposing Trans-Pacific Partnership off the ground, in my view.)<\/p>\n

A big item on Xi\u2019s agenda \u2014 he was in on the Pacific economic forum, too \u2014 was the recent launch of an Asians-only lending institution intended to rival the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank affiliate doing the West\u2019s work in the East. Being entirely opposed to people helping themselves advance without American assistance and all that goes with it, Washington used all means possible to sink this ship. When Obama got off the plane in Beijing, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank had $50 billion in capital and 20 members, more to come in both categories.<\/p>\n

Xi, meantime, had a productive encounter \u2014 another \u2014 with the formidable Vlad. My sources in attendance tell me both put in strong performances. In short order, Russia will send enough natural gas eastward to meet much of China\u2019s demand and \u2014 miss this not \u2014 in the long run could price out American supplies in other Pacific markets, which are key to the success of the current production boom out West.<\/p>\n

This is a lot of dots to connect. As I see it, the running themes in all this are two: There is constructive activity and there is the destructive. Readers may think this oversimplifies, but for this there is the ever-lively comment box below. I am willing to listen.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s go back to early September. On the 5th,\u00a0Germany brokered a cease-fire between the Ukraine government in Kiev and the rebels in the eastern Donbass region. Washington made it plain it wanted no part of this, preferring to continue open hostilities. And then strange things happened.<\/p>\n

Less than a week after the Minsk Protocol was signed, Kerry made a little-noted trip to Jeddah to see King Abdullah at his summer residence. When it was reported at all, this was put across as part of Kerry\u2019s campaign to secure Arab support in the fight against the Islamic State.<\/p>\n

Stop right there. That is not all there was to the visit, my trustworthy sources tell me. The other half of the visit had to do with Washington\u2019s unabated desire to ruin the Russian economy. To do this, Kerry told the Saudis 1) to raise production and 2) to cut its crude price. Keep in mind these pertinent numbers: The Saudis produce a barrel of oil for less than $30 as break-even in the national budget; the Russians need $105.<\/p>\n

Shortly after Kerry\u2019s visit, the Saudis began increasing production, sure enough \u2014 by more than 100,000 barrels daily during the rest of September, more apparently to come. Last week they dropped the price of Arab Light by 45 cents a barrel, Bloomberg News just reported. This has proven a market mover, sending prices to $78 a barrel at writing.<\/p>\n

Think about this. Winter is coming, there are serious production outages now in Iraq, Nigeria, Venezuela and Libya, other OPEC members are screaming for relief, and the Saudis make back-to-back moves certain to push falling prices still lower? You do the math, with Kerry\u2019s unreported itinerary in mind, and to help you along I offer this from an extremely well-positioned source in the commodities markets: \u201cThere are very big hands pushing oil into global supply now,\u201d this source wrote in an e-mail note the other day.<\/p>\n

The Russians, meantime, are reported to be sending soldiers and artillery back across, or maybe just across, the Ukrainian border. This we read, but we read nothing as to why this may be so, assuming for argument\u2019s sake it is. We are invited to accept that there is no reason worth reporting.<\/p>\n

I decline the invitation. The possibility-likelihood-probability \u2014 it is impossible to say, we are so ill-informed \u2014 is that these reported deployments are in reaction to moves kept out of sight. Given Washington\u2019s disapproval of the Minsk accord and its underhanded manipulations in the oil markets since it was signed, I label this a likelihood, at least, maybe more.<\/p>\n

As to the Ukrainian economy, this is getting sordid even before the International Monetary Fund gets its mitts on the place. A Royal Bank of Scotland analyst in Hong Kong, Roland Hinterkoerner,\u00a0just published a tour d\u2019horizon,<\/em> a few of the highlights (or lowlights) being these:<\/p>\n