{"id":50745,"date":"2014-12-08T12:00:21","date_gmt":"2014-12-08T12:00:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=50745"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:27:13","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:27:13","slug":"turk-stream-huge-win-for-turkey-big-win-for-russia-historic-loss-for-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2014\/12\/turk-stream-huge-win-for-turkey-big-win-for-russia-historic-loss-for-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;Turk Stream&#8221;: Huge Win for Turkey &#8211; Big Win For Russia &#8211; Historic Loss for EU"},"content":{"rendered":"<ul>\n<li><em>EU&#8217;s obstruction of South Stream blew black in its face<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Russia gets more gas infrastructure regardless<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Turkey won&#8217;t pass a chance to benefit from Eurasian ties<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div id=\"attachment_50746\" style=\"width: 410px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/turkey-russia-east-pipeline-eu.si_-putin-erdogan.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-50746\" class=\"size-full wp-image-50746\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/turkey-russia-east-pipeline-eu.si_-putin-erdogan.jpg\" alt=\"Keyword is 'national interest'\" width=\"400\" height=\"225\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/turkey-russia-east-pipeline-eu.si_-putin-erdogan.jpg 400w, https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/turkey-russia-east-pipeline-eu.si_-putin-erdogan-300x168.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-50746\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Keyword is &#8216;national interest&#8217;<\/p><\/div>\n<p>So the EU \u201cdefeated\u201d Putin by forcing him to cancel the South Stream pipeline. Thus ruled Western corporate media.<\/p>\n<p>Nonsense.<\/p>\n<p>Facts on the ground spell otherwise. This \u201c<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.tomdispatch.com\/post\/175050\/pepe_escobar_welcome_to_pipelineistan\" >Pipelineistan<\/a>\u201d gambit will continue to send massive geopolitical shockwaves all across Eurasia for quite some time.<\/p>\n<p>In a nutshell, a few years ago Russia devised Nord Stream \u2013 fully operational \u2013 and South Stream \u2013 still a project \u2013 to bypass unreliable Ukraine as a gas transit nation.<\/p>\n<p>Now Russia devised a new deal with Turkey to bypass the \u201c<em>non-constructive<\/em>\u201d (Putin\u2019s words) approach of the European Commission (EC).<\/p>\n<p>Background is essential to understand the current game.<\/p>\n<p>Five years ago I was following in detail Pipelineistan\u2019s <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.tomdispatch.com\/blog\/175123\/tomgram:_pepe_escobar,_pipelineistan%27s_ultimate_opera\/\" >ultimate opera<\/a> \u2013 the war between rival pipelines South Stream and Nabucco.<\/p>\n<p>Nabucco eventually became road kill. South Stream may eventually resurrect, but only if the EC comes to its senses (don\u2019t bet on it.)<\/p>\n<p>The 3,600 kilometer long South Stream should be in place by 2016, branching out to Austria and the Balkans\/Italy. Gazprom owns 50 percent of it &#8211; along with Italy\u2019s ENI (20 percent), French EDF (15 percent) and German Wintershall, a subsidiary of BASF (15 percent).<\/p>\n<p>As it stands these European energy majors are not exactly beaming \u2013 to say the least. For months Gazprom and the EC were haggling about a solution. But in the end Brussels predictably succumbed to its own.<\/p>\n<p>Russia still gets to build a pipeline under the Black Sea \u2013 but now redirected to Turkey and, crucially, pumping the same amount of gas South Stream would. Not to mention Russia gets to build a new LNG (liquefied natural gas) central hub in the Mediterranean. Thus Gazprom has not spent $5 billion in vain (finance, engineering costs).<\/p>\n<p>The redirection makes total business sense. Turkey is Gazprom\u2019s second biggest customer after Germany. And much bigger than Bulgaria, Hungary, and Austria combined.<\/p>\n<p>Russia also advances a unified gas distribution network capable of delivering natural gas from anywhere in Russia to any hub alongside Russia\u2019s borders.<\/p>\n<p>And as if it was needed, Russia gets yet another graphic proof that its real growth market in the future is Asia, especially China \u2013 not a fearful, stagnated, austerity-devastated, politically paralyzed EU.<\/p>\n<p>The evolving Russia-China strategic partnership implies Russia as complementary to China, excelling in major infrastructure projects from building dams to laying out pipelines. This is business with a sharp geopolitical reach \u2013 not ideology-drenched politics.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Russian \u201cdefeat\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Turkey also made a killing. It\u2019s not only the deal with Gazprom; Moscow will build no less than Turkey\u2019s entire nuclear industry, apart from increased soft power interaction (more trade and tourism).<\/p>\n<p>Most of all, Turkey is now increasingly on the verge of becoming a full member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO); Moscow is actively lobbying for it.<\/p>\n<p>This means Turkey acceding to a privileged position as a major hub simultaneously in the Eurasian Economic Belt and of course the Chinese New Silk Road(s).<\/p>\n<p>The EU blocks Turkey? Turkey looks east. That\u2019s Eurasian integration on the move.<\/p>\n<p>Washington has tried very hard to create a New Berlin Wall from the Baltics to the Black Sea to \u201cisolate\u201d Russia. Now comes yet another Putin judo\/chess\/go counterpunch \u2013 which the opponent never saw coming. And exactly across the Black Sea.<\/p>\n<p>A key Turkish strategic imperative is to configure itself as the indispensable energy crossroads from East to West \u2013 transiting everything from Iraqi oil to Caspian Sea gas. Oil from Azerbaijan already transits Turkey via the Bill Clinton\/Zbig Brzezinski-propelled BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan) pipeline.<\/p>\n<p>Turkey would also be the crossroads if a Trans-Caspian pipeline is ever built (slim chances as it stands), pumping natural gas from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan, then transported to Turkey and finally Europe.<\/p>\n<p>So what Putin\u2019s judo\/chess\/go counterpunch accomplished with a single move is to have stupid EU sanctions once again hurt the EU. The German economy is already hurting badly because of lost Russia business.<\/p>\n<p>The EC brilliant \u201cstrategy\u201d revolves around the EU\u2019s so-called Third Energy Package, which requires that pipelines and the natural gas flowing inside them must be owned by separate companies.<\/p>\n<p>The target of this package has always been Gazprom \u2013 which owns pipelines in many Central and Eastern European nations. And the target within the target has always been South Stream.<\/p>\n<p>Now it\u2019s up to Bulgaria and Hungary \u2013 which, by the way, have always fought the EC \u201cstrategy\u201d \u2013 to explain the fiasco to their own populations, and to keep pressing Brussels; after all they are bound to lose a fortune, not to mention get no gas, with South Stream out of the picture.<\/p>\n<p>So here\u2019s the bottom line; Russia sells even more gas \u2013 to Turkey; and the EU, pressured by the US, is reduced to dancing like a bunch of headless chickens in dark Brussels corridors wondering what hit them. The Atlanticists are back to default mode \u2013 cooking up yet more sanctions while Russia is set to keep buying more and more gold.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Watch those spears<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>This is not the endgame \u2013 far from it. In the near future, many variables will intersect.<\/p>\n<p>Ankara\u2019s game may change \u2013 but that\u2019s far from a given. President Erdogan \u2013 the Sultan of Constantinople \u2013 has certainly identified a rival Caliph, Ibrahim of ISIS\/ISIL\/Daesh fame, trying to steal his mojo.<\/p>\n<p>Thus the Sultan may flirt with mollifying his neo-Ottoman dreams and steer Turkey back to its previously ditched \u201czero problems with our neighbors\u201d foreign policy doctrine.<\/p>\n<p>The House of Saud is like a camel in the Arctic. The House of Saud\u2019s lethal game in Syria always boiled down to regime change so a Saudi-sponsored oil pipeline from Syria to Turkey might be built \u2013 dethroning the proposed, $10 billion Iran-Iraq-Syria \u201cIslamic\u201d pipeline.<\/p>\n<p>Now the Saudis see Russia about to supply all of Turkey\u2019s energy needs \u2013 and then some. And \u201cAssad must go\u201d still won\u2019t go.<\/p>\n<p>US neo-cons are also sharpening their spears. As soon as early 2015 there may be a Ukrainian Freedom Act approved by the US Congress. Translation: Ukraine as a \u201cmajor US non-NATO ally\u201d which means, in practice, a NATO annexation. Next step; more turbo-charged neo-con provocation of Russia.<\/p>\n<p>A possible scenario is vassal\/puppies such as Romania or Bulgaria \u2013 pressed by Washington \u2013 deciding to allow full access for NATO vessels into the Black Sea. Who cares this would violate the current Black Sea agreements that affect both Russia and Turkey?<\/p>\n<p>And then there\u2019s a Rumsfeldian \u201cknown unknown\u201d; how the weak Balkans will feel subordinated to the whims of Ankara. As much as Brussels keeps Greece, Bulgaria and Serbia in a strait jacket, in energy terms they will start depending on Turkey\u2019s goodwill.<\/p>\n<p>For the moment, let\u2019s appreciate the magnitude of the geopolitical shockwaves. There will be more, when we least expect them.<\/p>\n<p>________________________________<\/p>\n<p><em>Pepe Escobar, from Brazil, is the roving correspondent for Asia Times\/Hong Kong, an analyst for RT and a frequent contributor to websites and radio shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He <em>is the author of <\/em><\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/exec\/obidos\/ASIN\/0978813820\/simpleproduction\/ref=nosim\" >Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War<\/a> <em>(Nimble Books, 2007), <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Red-Zone-Blues-snapshot-Baghdad\/dp\/0978813898\" >Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge<\/a> <em>(Nimble Books, 2007), and <\/em><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Obama-Does-Globalistan-Pepe-Escobar\/dp\/1934840831\" >Obama does Globalistan<\/a> <em>(Nimble Books, 2009). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/russia-insider.com\/en\/export\/1562\" >Go to Original \u2013 russia-insider.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>So the EU \u201cdefeated\u201d Putin by forcing him to cancel the South Stream pipeline. Thus ruled Western corporate media. Nonsense. Facts on the ground spell otherwise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[197],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50745","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-special-feature"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50745","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50745"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50745\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50745"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50745"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50745"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}