{"id":53890,"date":"2015-02-16T12:47:50","date_gmt":"2015-02-16T12:47:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=53890"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:26:05","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:26:05","slug":"from-minsk-to-brussels-its-all-about-germany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2015\/02\/from-minsk-to-brussels-its-all-about-germany\/","title":{"rendered":"From Minsk to Brussels, it\u2019s all about Germany"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Pepe<\/a>

Pepe Escobar<\/p><\/div>\n

13 Feb 2015 – <\/em>Germany holds the key to where Europe goes next. A fragile deal may have been reached on Ukraine, but there\u2019s still no deal with Greece. In both cases, there\u2019s much more than meets the eye.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start with the grueling Eurogroup negotiation in Brussels over the Greek debt.<\/p>\n

Greek officials swear they never received a draft of a possible agreement<\/a> leaked by Eurogroup bureaucrats to the Financial Times. This draft, crucially, referred to an agreement \u201camending and extending and successfully concluding,\u201d the current austerity-heavy bailout.<\/p>\n

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble cut off \u201camending\u201d. This is the draft that was leaked. But then Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis called Prime Minister Tsipras – and the statement, still not signed, was rejected. So this was a top Tsipras decision.<\/p>\n

Tsipras could not possibly balk \u2013 not after previously raising the stakes \u2013 as in promising to boost the Greek minimum wage and halt privatizations. He\u2019s still betting the house that the Troika won\u2019t allow a \u2018Grexit\u2019. Yet he may be wrong; the possibility of \u2018Grexit\u2019 is hovering around 35 percent to 40 percent, and it will be much higher if no deal is reached on the next crunch meeting, Monday.<\/p>\n

Tsipras and Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem at least agreed that Greek officials and the Troika (EC, ECB, IMF) should start talking \u201cat a technical level.\u201d Translation: they will be comparing the current austerity nightmare with new Greek proposals.<\/p>\n

Athens essentially has only two choices. Either the Troika accedes to some form of debt repudiation – real or as a sleight of hand (that\u2019s Syriza\u2019s proposal \u2013 an arrangement that fosters growth); or \u2018Grexit\u2019 ensues, with Athens creating its own central bank and currency as an independent nation. There\u2019s no third choice; a debt of 175 percent of Greece\u2019s GDP is totally unpayable.<\/p>\n

As much as the Troika and its institutional derivatives spin \u2018Grexit\u2019 won\u2019t be a big deal, the fact is a Greek debt default could have a more devastating effect than the Lehman Brothers case. It was not the fundamentals at Lehman that caused widespread panic when it went down; but the fear that their derivative exposures would bring down the system.<\/p>\n

And cutting through all the spin, what remains, essentially, is what European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told Le Figaro a few days ago; it\u2019s out of the question to suppress the Greek debt and, most of all, \u201cthere can be no democratic option against European treaties.\u201d There it is, crystal clear: EU institutions work against democracy.<\/p>\n

Plan B remains a distinct possibility. Moscow has already invited Tsipras to meet with Putin. And Beijing has invited Tsipras to meet with Prime Minister Li Keqiang. These are the \u201cR\u201d and the \u201cC\u201d in BRICS in action.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s worth remembering Greek Defense Minister Panos Kammenos when he articulated if not a majority view, at least a substantial perception among Greek public opinion; \u201cWe want a deal. But if there is no deal, and if we see that Germany remains rigid and wants to blow Europe apart, then we will have to go to Plan B\u2026 We have other ways of finding money. It could be the United States at best, it could be Russia, it could be China or other countries.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Alea jacta est<\/em>. Troika or RC?<\/p>\n

And it\u2019s all about NATO<\/p>\n

\"Greek<\/a>

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras addresses a news conference after a European Union leaders summit in Brussels February 12, 2015. (Reuters \/ Francois Lenoir)<\/p><\/div>\n

Then there\u2019s Minsk. What was achieved<\/a> after nearly 17 hours of a grueling marathon is not exactly, in French President Francois Hollande\u2019s words, a \u201cglobal\u201d agreement and a \u201cglobal ceasefire\u201d in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s every possibility the ceasefire will be nullified only a few minutes after its implementation at midnight this Saturday [14 Feb 2015] \u2013 irony of ironies, at the end of Valentine\u2019s Day. Significantly, the final statement bears no important signatures: Putin, Merkel, Hollande and Poroshenko.<\/p>\n

German Foreign Minister Steinmeier was cautious, warning Minsk 2.0 is not exactly a breakthrough, but at least de-escalates matters. Merkel preferred to spin that Putin had to pressure the Eastern Ukraine federalists of the DNR and the LNR to agree to the ceasefire.<\/p>\n

Predictably, like clockwork, even before the ceasefire, the IMF \u2013 under Washington\u2019s orders \u2013 suddenly announced it would continue to rape, sorry, help bailout bankrupt, failed state Ukraine with a tranche of$17.5 billion, part of a large $40 billion, four-year \u201crescue\u201d package. Translation: Kiev\u2019s goons now have fresh cash to throw at a war they don’t want to give up on.<\/p>\n

Poroshenko himself took no time to torpedo the ceasefire \u2013 spinning there\u2019s no autonomy granted to the areas controlled by the federalists, and refusing to confirm Putin\u2019s assertion that Kiev has agreed to terminate the vicious economic blockade of Donbass.<\/p>\n

The precise contours of the demilitarized zone \u2013 bordering one frontline in September and a very different frontline five months later \u2013 remain a mystery. And Washington immediately turned the \u201cwithdrawal of foreign forces\u201d clause into a joke. The Pentagon has already announced it will begin training Ukraine\u2019s National Guard next month.<\/p>\n

Minsk 2.0 hardly qualifies as a band-aid. Ukraine is unredeemable. It would only come back from the dead if a tsunami of cash \u2013 almost equivalent to the cost of German reunification \u2013 were poured in. Needless to add, no one in Europe wants to dish out even a few devalued euro.<\/p>\n

This was, remains, and will continue to be, essentially about NATO expansion. Washington and the Kiev marionettes will never allow any constitutional reform that lets the Donbass block NATO embedded in Ukraine. So the \u2018Empire of Chaos\u2019, in a nutshell, won\u2019t cease from using Ukraine to bully Russia. The \u2018Empire of Chaos\u2019 is not exactly in the business of nation building \u2013 quite the contrary.<\/p>\n

Crossing the German bridge <\/strong><\/p>\n

And that brings us to the crucial role played by Germany \u2013 with France as sidekick.<\/p>\n

Chancellor Merkel had to go to Moscow to negotiate with Putin because she saw which way the wind was blowing – counterproductive sanctions; Ukrainian economy in free fall; Kiev\u2019s goons defeated on the battlefield. That was as much an imperative as a crucial demarcation away from the imperial NATO expansion obsession.<\/p>\n

As Immanuel Wallerstein has observed<\/a> Moscow is pursuing \u201ca careful policy. Not totally in control of the Donetsk-Lugansk autonomists, Russia is nonetheless making sure that the autonomists cannot be eliminated militarily. The Russian price for real peace is a commitment by NATO that Ukraine is not a potential member.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

So Merkel may have defused the Obama administration\u2019s drive to weaponize Kiev \u2013 but only for a moment. There\u2019s no evidence \u2013 yet \u2013 that the Obama administration and its embedded neo-con cells have admitted that the self-proclaimed People\u2019s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (DPR and LPR) are essentially \u201clost\u201d to Kiev\u2019s influence.<\/p>\n

Hollande provided the perfect cover for Merkel. It was Hollande who publicly supported autonomy \u2013 as in federalization – for the DPR and the LPR. At the same time, both Merkel and Hollande know that Kiev will never de facto accept it (and even a substantial portion of the Donbass only accepts federalization as a stepping stone to eventual secession and union with Russia.)<\/p>\n

Merkel \u2013 at least in terms of German public opinion \u2013 did manage to achieve her goal, emerging as a victor (\u201cThe world chancellor,\u201d as the tabloid Bild coined it) after her frequent-flyer marathon. Putin also emerged a victor of sorts – as Merkel essentially rehashed proposals he made months ago. So yes, whichever angle we look at it, this was in fact a Moscow-Berlin deal.It\u2019s easy to see who is extremely disgruntled and will do everything to bomb it; Washington, Kiev, London, Warsaw and the hysterical \u201cRussia is invading\u201d Baltic states.<\/p>\n

Last but not least, let\u2019s call attention to the monumental white elephant in the room. Minsk 2.0 was conducted in the total absence of the \u2018Empire of Chaos\u2019 and the (increasingly irrelevant) \u201cspecial relationship\u201d British minions.<\/p>\n

Slowly but surely, public opinion across Europe \u2013 and especially Germany – is experiencing a tectonic shift. The obsession by the \u2018Empire of Chaos\u2019 to further weaponize Kiev has horrified millions \u2013 resurrecting the specter of a war in Europe\u2019s eastern borderlands. Not only in Germany but also in France, Italy, Spain, there is a growing continental consensus against NATO.<\/p>\n

Even at the height of a vicious Russia demonization campaign unleashed by virtually the whole German corporate media, a Deutschland Trend survey revealed<\/a> that most Germans are against NATO troops in Eastern Europe. And no less than 49 percent would rather see Germany position itself as a bridge between East and West. The leadership in Beijing definitely took note.<\/p>\n

So it’s tempting to hop on the Merkel\/Hollande peace train as the heart of Europe finally exercising their sovereignty and frontally defying the \u2018Empire of Chaos\u2019. Perhaps that could be the embryo of a German-French partnership for peace in Europe and even beyond, from the Middle East to Africa.<\/p>\n

That would frontally antagonize NATO\u2019s screenplay \u2013 which implies the \u2019Empire of Chaos\u2019 ruling uncontested over Europe, the Middle East and even across Eurasia, with continental European powers, especially Germany, France and yes, Russia, at the margins.<\/p>\n

Sooner or later European politicians will have to wake up and smell the coffee; the notion of a German-French-Russian pan-European peace\/trade partnership is way more popular than reflected in failed corporate media.<\/p>\n

Now it\u2019s up to Germany to clean up its act on Greece. The choice is stark. The EU may embark on a quadruple-dip recession as the ECB further destroys what is left of the European middle class. Or Germany, reflecting the thinking among its captains of industry, may tell the EU \u2013 Troika included \u2013 that the way to go is to shift the strategic, trade and political focus from West to the East. That would start by stuffing the corporate US-devised TTIP treaty \u2013 that\u2019s NATO on trade. After all, this is going to be the Eurasian century \u2013 and this train has already left the station.<\/p>\n

_______________________________<\/p>\n

Pepe Escobar, from Brazil, is the roving correspondent for Asia Times\/Hong Kong, an analyst for RT and a frequent contributor to websites and radio shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the author of <\/em><\/em>Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2007), <\/em>Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2007), and <\/em>Obama does Globalistan<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2009). His new <\/em>book is Empire of Chaos<\/a>.<\/em> He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 rt.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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