{"id":55341,"date":"2015-03-16T12:00:02","date_gmt":"2015-03-16T12:00:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=55341"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:25:59","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:25:59","slug":"from-preventing-to-making-peace-in-ukraine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2015\/03\/from-preventing-to-making-peace-in-ukraine\/","title":{"rendered":"From Preventing to Making Peace in Ukraine"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Jan-Oberg-150x150\"<\/a>

Jan Oberg<\/p><\/div>\n

March 13, 2015- If the parties continue this way, there will be no peace in Ukraine but probably war in Europe. With a little out-of-the-box thinking, we could move in a safer direction<\/em><\/p>\n

You\u2019ve heard everybody involved in the Ukraine conflict solemnly declared that there is no military solution.<\/p>\n

And what do they all do? Right, they militarise the situation further, use bellicose language, speak bad about each other, take provocative steps, use propaganda and flex their military muscles. It\u2019s thought provokingly thoughtless.<\/p>\n

These men \u2013 sorry, but they are all men \u2013 who are competent in war and violence run our world. They are conflict and peace illiterates embedded with MIMACs \u2013 Military-Industrial-Media-Academic Complexes \u2013 which exist in Russia, EU, NATO and the U.S.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not about evil \u2013 they are probably all good spouses, nice to their children or grandchildren and enjoy literature, painting or music in their few hours of leisure. But the system they operate inside is as evil as it is dangerous for us all, for the world\u2019s future.<\/p>\n

Their problem \u2013 and thus your and my problem \u2013 is that they just don\u2019t have a clue about peace-making. No education, institutions or advisers in civilian conflict-management.<\/p>\n

And since they lack that they fall back on the convenient but proven illusion that peace will come if we just force \u201cthe other\u201d to back down.<\/p>\n

And since there is no lack of (tax payers\u2019) money to fund weapons (only to fund social and cultural development) and these weapons are on the government shelves that\u2019s what they use \u2013 instead of their intelligence and empathy.<\/p>\n

Far fetched?<\/strong><\/p>\n

If you think so, take a look at these facts:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. We have Minsk II \u2013 a fragile ceasefire agreement but we have no enforcement capacity, no way of securing that violence won\u2019t break out again.<\/li>\n
  2. There are no all-party peacebuilding initiatives, no forums or processes where possible future solutions are being brainstormed, mediated impartially and hammered out in text for a peace agreement. Not even consultations.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    That is, not one single fall-back plan\/process in case the ceasefire breaks down.<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Russia seems to have up to 10,000 \u201cforces\u201d in Ukraine \u2013 some of them private mercenaries<\/a> \u2013 according to a new RUSI report<\/a>. And controls Crimea (but rushed to arrange a referendum (better at least than bombing Serbia to pieces to make Kosovo independent, but still) and forgot to offer autonomy for non-Russians).<\/li>\n
    2. The UK sends limited \u201cforces\u201d into Ukraine to train its army<\/a>.<\/li>\n
    3. These very days, NATO holds at least 3 significant military exercises (non-provocative, it says, just re-assuring allies) \u2013 Atlantic Resolve<\/a>(see interesting maps on the link) in the Baltic region, Joint Viking<\/a> in Northern Norway and one in the Black Sea<\/a> \u2013 coincidentally, we must assume, all around Russia. This comes in continuation of NATO\u2019s earlier decision to set up a new Rapid Reaction Force of about 30,000 troops<\/a> in six East European countries.<\/li>\n
    4. Ukraine, on the verge of economic collapse, seeks weapons in the UAE<\/a> and asks for more weapons from the West and gets some \u201cnon-lethal\u201d equipment and private mercenaries<\/a>. The West has introduced a funny category called \u201cdefensive\u201d weapons that may fit the case (meaning that everything else they themselves have in their arsenals is offensive \u2013 but assumed to be used only for defence\u2026).<\/li>\n
    5. All sides take confrontational steps to show off \u2013 such as sanctions and use of the oil\/gas weapon \u2013 and make the distance to \u201cthe others\u201d larger. Where there used to be confidence, even common exercises, there is now no communication, only mistrust.<\/li>\n
    6. As if this was not enough, Jean-Claude Juncker, the EU Commission President, says that we must have a new EU Army<\/a> to face up to Russia (whose military expenditures is as small as 10% of NATO\u2019s should anyone bother about the military (un)balance.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      If there is no military solution \u2013 why then all these military steps and no single move, no sending of signals, in the direction of confidence-building and peace?<\/p>\n

      Each of these moves, posturings and signals \u2013 and their tit-for-tat accumulated effect over time \u2013 pushes the situation closer to war than to peace. It even seems divisive within NATO<\/a>.<\/p>\n

      European citizens \u2013 also way outside Ukraine \u2013 have reasons to fear where this could end. They have no influence on what all these MIMACS do \u2013 also not in democratic countries.<\/p>\n

      They have no way of saying no to their tax money being used to their own security. It may not be in our name, but it is certainly by our taxes.<\/p>\n

      If they knew what peace could be and how to make it<\/strong><\/p>\n

      If parliamentarians, ministers, presidents and mainstream\u00a0media were not \u2013 of course with some few exceptions \u2013 part of the vested MIMAC interests and could think freely outside the box, they would come up with some self-evident proposals such as these (not linear and with no priorities or who should do what first):<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Stop trying to get Ukraine into NATO.<\/li>\n
      2. Let Ukraine join both the EU and whatever Russian-lead civilian organisation all Ukrainians can agree on.<\/li>\n
      3. Withdraw all kinds of forces from Eastern Ukraine.<\/li>\n
      4. Let a robust UN peacekeeping force \u2013 with a military, a civil affairs and a police element \u00e0 la Yugoslavia \u2013 operate in the whole Eastern region together with the OSCE.<\/li>\n
      5. Begin confidence- and peacebuilding consultations, with professional, impartial mediators \u2013 leading over the years (yes it takes time) to a peace agreement with civilian and military modalities for the future.<\/li>\n
      6. Discuss possible futures for Ukraine \u2013 unitary, federated, con-federated, autonomous regions, governance etc. ending with referendum for all Ukrainians voting on 2-3 possible structures.<\/li>\n
      7. Respect the new opinion poll of all Ukrainians<\/a> which shows that they are more united around accepting a neutral status \u2013 or equidistance \u2013 to Russia and the West than any other alternative and that they want their country\u2019s unity preserved.<\/li>\n
      8. Withdraw NATO\u2019s new rapid force from the six East European countries and get back to the spirit of the 1997 Founding Act on Mutual Relations between Russia and NATO<\/a>.<\/li>\n
      9. A massive economic aid and development package to Ukraine \u2013 financed by Russia, EU and the US together.<\/li>\n
      10. Dropping all sanctions and other economic warfare whichever way and re-connect. All parties in this conflict have a crystal clear win-win situation in front of them if they could only recognise it.<\/li>\n
      11. People-to-people activities crisscross, reconciliation and closure and stopping mass media propaganda warfare, stereotyping, demonising and self-righteous coverage.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Peace won\u2019t come easy or quick but it is fully possible.<\/p>\n

        But not with the stone-age, peace-preventing policies we\u2019ve witnessed on all sides the last year. If some of these proposals were implemented, we could see a 12th emerge:<\/p>\n

        A Russian-Ukrainian-EU Academy of Peace \u2013 the first throughout the area filled with military academies \u2013 where students from these countries would pursue an MA and PhD, become peace professionals and good mediators \u2013 helping us all to prevent in the future the tragic but avoidable situation we are in now.<\/p>\n

        _______________________________<\/p>\n

        TFF Director Prof. Jan Oberg is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace, Development and Environment.<\/em><\/p>\n

        Go to Original \u2013 transnational.org<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        You\u2019ve heard everybody involved in the Ukraine conflict solemnly declared that there is no military solution. And what do they all do? Right, they militarise the situation further, use bellicose language, speak bad about each other, take provocative steps, use propaganda and flex their military muscles. These men \u2013 sorry, but they are all men \u2013 who are competent in war and violence run our world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-55341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-transcend-members"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=55341"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/55341\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=55341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=55341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=55341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}