{"id":56825,"date":"2015-04-27T12:00:40","date_gmt":"2015-04-27T11:00:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=56825"},"modified":"2015-05-05T21:25:49","modified_gmt":"2015-05-05T20:25:49","slug":"eurasia-as-we-knew-it-is-dead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2015\/04\/eurasia-as-we-knew-it-is-dead\/","title":{"rendered":"Eurasia as We Knew It Is Dead"},"content":{"rendered":"

The U.S. Knew It Too<\/em><\/p>\n

Move over, Cold War 2.0. The real story, now and for the foreseeable future, in its myriad declinations, and of course, ruling out too many bumps in the road, is a new, integrated Eurasia forging ahead.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s immensely ambitious New Silk Road project will keep intersecting with the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEC). And that will be the day when the EU wakes up and finds a booming trade\/commerce axis stretching from St. Petersburg to Shanghai. It\u2019s always pertinent to remember that Vladimir Putin sold a similar, and even more encompassing, vision in Germany a few years ago \u2013 stretching from Lisbon to Vladivostok.<\/p>\n

It will take time \u2013 and troubled times. But Eurasia\u2019s radical face lift is inexorable. This implies an exceptionalist dream \u2013 the U.S. as Eurasia hegemon, something that still looked feasible at the turn of the millennium \u2013 fast dissolving right before anyone\u2019s eyes.<\/p>\n

Russia Pivots East, China Pivots West<\/strong><\/p>\n

A few sound minds in the U.S. remain essential as they fully deconstruct the negatives, pointing to the dangers<\/a> of Cold War 2.0. The Carnegie Moscow Center\u2019s Dmitri Trenin, meanwhile, is more concerned with the positives<\/a>, proposing a road map for Eurasian convergence.<\/p>\n

The Russia-China strategic partnership \u2013 from energy trade to defense and infrastructure development \u2013 will only solidify, as Russia pivots East and China pivots West. Geopolitically, this does not mean a Moscow subordinated to Beijing, but a rising symbiotic relationship, painstakingly developed in multiple stages.<\/p>\n

The BRICs \u2013 that dirty word in Washington \u2013 already have way more global appeal, and as much influence as the outdated G-7. The BRIC New Development Bank, ready to start before the end of 2015, is a key alternative to G7-controlled mechanisms and the IMF.<\/p>\n

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is bound to include India and Pakistan at their upcoming summer summit in Russia, and Iran\u2019s inclusion, post-sanctions as an official member, would be virtually a done deal by 2016. The SCO is finally blossoming as the key development, political\/economic cooperation and security forum across Asia.<\/p>\n

Putin\u2019s \u201cgreater Europe\u201d from Lisbon to Vladivostok \u2013 which would mean the EU + EEC \u2013 may be on hold while China turbo-charges the its New Silk Road in both its overland and maritime routes. Meanwhile, the Kremlin will concentrate on a parallel strategy \u2013 to use East Asian capital and technology to develop Siberia and the Russian Far East. The yuan is bound to become a reserve currency across Eurasia in the very near future, as the ruble and the yuan are about to rule for good in bilateral trade.<\/p>\n

The German Factor<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cGreater Europe\u201d from Lisbon to Vladivostok inevitably depends on a solution to the German puzzle. German industrialists clearly see the marvels of Russia providing Germany \u2013 much more than the EU as a whole \u2013 with a privileged geopolitical and strategic channel to Asia-Pacific. However, the same does not apply as yet to German politicos. Chancellor Angela Merkel, whatever her rhetoric, keeps toeing the Washington line.<\/p>\n

The Russian Pipelineistan strategy was already in place \u2013 via Nord Stream and South Stream \u2013 when interminable EU U-turns led Moscow to cancel South Stream and launch Turk Stream (which will, in the end, increase energy costs for the EU). The EU, in exchange, would have virtually free access to Russia\u2019s wealth of resources, and internal market. The Ukraine disaster means the end of all these elaborate plans.<\/p>\n

Germany is already the defacto EU conductor for this economic express train. As an export powerhouse, its only way to go is not West or South, but East. Thus, the portentous spectacle of an orchestra of salivating industrialists when Xi Jinping went to Germany in the spring of 2104. Xi proposed no less than a high-speed rail line linking the New Silk Road from Shanghai to Duisburg and Berlin.<\/p>\n

A key point which shouldn\u2019t be lost on Germans: a vital branch of the New Silk Road is the Trans-Siberian high-speed rail remix. So one of the yellow BRIC roads to Beijing and Shanghai boasts Moscow as a strategic pit stop.<\/p>\n

That Empire of Chaos \u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s Go West strategy overland is blissfully free of hyperpower meddling \u2013 from the Trans-Siberian remix to the rail\/road routes across the Central Asian \u201cstans\u201d all the way to Iran and Turkey. Moreover, Russia sees it as a symbiosis, considering a win-win as Central Asian stans jump simultaneously aboard the EEU and what Beijing dubs the Silk Road Economic Belt.<\/p>\n

On other fronts, meanwhile, Beijing is very careful to not antagonize the U.S., the reigning hyperpower. See for instance this quite frank but also quite diplomatic interview to the Financial Times by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang<\/a>.<\/p>\n

One key aspect of the Russia-China strategic partnership is that both identify Washington\u2019s massively incoherent foreign policy as a prime breeder of chaos \u2013 exactly as I argue in my book\u00a0Empire of Chaos<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In what applies specifically to China and Russia, it\u2019s essentially chaos as in divide and rule. Beijing sees Washington trying to destabilize China\u2019s periphery (Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang), and actively interfering in the South China Sea disputes. Moscow sees Washington obsessed with the infinite expansion of NATO and taking no prisoners in preventing Russia\u2019s efforts at Eurasian integration.<\/p>\n

Thus, the certified death of Russia\u2019s previous geopolitical strategy. No more trying to feel included in an elite Western club such as the G-8. No more strategic partnership with NATO.<\/p>\n

Always expert at planning well in advance, Beijing also sees how Washington\u2019s relentless demonization of not only Putin, but Russia as a whole (as in submit or else), constitute a trial run on what might be applied against China in the near future.<\/p>\n

Meet the Imponderables<\/strong><\/p>\n

All bets are off on how the fateful U.S.-China-Russia triangle will evolve. Arguably, it may take the following pattern: The Americans talk loud and carry an array of sticks; the Russians are not shy to talk back while silently preparing strategically for a long, difficult haul; the Chinese follow a modified \u201cLittle Helmsman\u201d Deng Xiaoping doctrine \u2013 talk very diplomatically while no longer keeping a low profile.<\/p>\n

Beijing\u2019s already savvy to what Moscow has been whispering: Exceptionalist Washington \u2013 in decline or not \u2013 will never treat Beijing as an equal or respect Chinese national interests.<\/p>\n

In the great Imponderables chapter, bets are still accepted on whether Moscow will use this serious, triple threat crisis \u2013 sanctions, oil price war, ruble devaluation \u2013 to radically apply structural game changers and launch a new strategy of economic development. Putin\u2019s recent\u00a0Q&A<\/a>, although crammed with intriguing answers, still isn\u2019t clear on this.<\/p>\n

Other great imponderable is whether Xi, armed with soft power, charisma and lots of cash, will be able to steer, simultaneously, the tweaking of the economic model and a Go West avalanche that does not end up alienating China\u2019s multiple potential partners in building the New Silk roads.<\/p>\n

A final, super-imponderable is whether (or when, if ever) Brussels will decide to undertake a mutually agreed symbiosis with Russia. This, vs. its current posture of total antagonism that extends beyond geopolitical issues. Germany, under Merkel, seems to have made the choice to remain submitted to NATO, and thus, a strategic midget.<\/p>\n

So what we have here is the makings of a Greater Asia from Shanghai to St. Petersburg \u2013 including, crucially, Tehran \u2013 instead of a Total Eurasia that extends from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Total Eurasia may be broken, at least for now. But Greater Asia is a go. There will be a tsunami of efforts by the usual suspects, to also break it up.<\/p>\n

All this will be fascinating to watch. How will Moscow and Beijing stare down the West \u2013 politically, commercially and ideologically \u2013 without risking a war? How will they cope with so much pressure? How will they sell their strategy to great swathes of the Global South<\/a>, across multiple Asian latitudes?<\/p>\n

One battle, though, is already won. Bye, bye Zbigniew Brzezinski. Your grand chessboard hegemonic dream is over.<\/p>\n

_______________________________<\/p>\n

Pepe Escobar, from Brazil, is the roving correspondent for Asia Times\/Hong Kong, an analyst for RT and a frequent contributor to websites and radio shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the author of <\/em><\/em>Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2007), <\/em>Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2007), and <\/em>Obama does Globalistan<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2009). His new <\/em>book is Empire of Chaos<\/a>.<\/em> He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

This piece first appeared at Asia Times<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 counterpunch.org<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Move over, Cold War 2.0. The real story, now and for the foreseeable future, is a new, integrated Eurasia forging ahead. China\u2019s immensely ambitious New Silk Road project will keep intersecting with the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union, a booming trade\/commerce axis stretching from St. Petersburg to Shanghai.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56825"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56825\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}