{"id":66891,"date":"2015-11-30T12:00:55","date_gmt":"2015-11-30T12:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=66891"},"modified":"2015-11-30T12:20:28","modified_gmt":"2015-11-30T12:20:28","slug":"2016-the-year-of-india-and-the-last-chance-for-an-organized-systemic-global-transition","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2015\/11\/2016-the-year-of-india-and-the-last-chance-for-an-organized-systemic-global-transition\/","title":{"rendered":"2016: The Year of India\u2026 And the Last Chance for an Organized Systemic Global Transition"},"content":{"rendered":"

When LEAP launched the GEAB in January 2006 with the object of describing a \u201cglobal systemic crisis\u201d in the making, one of its aims was to help raise awareness amongst Europeans of the US\u2019 weakness and of the opportunity which then existed to complete the continent\u2019s independence process. This objective was not only motivated by a purely European interest, it was based on a strong prediction that we often repeated here: the transition of a Western centred world towards a multi-polar one would go very badly if Europe was unable to extricate itself from the Western camp in which a \u201chard-line America\u201d shut it. Indeed, combined with Europe, this America had no further reason to question itself and could implement a pure power strategy to try and keep its global leadership.<\/p>\n

\"Pic-GEAB-97-366x204<\/a><\/p>\n

American Judo Hold on Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n

We have thus begun to identify and analyze all the signals of Europe\u2019s attempts to gain independence for almost 10 years. Sadly, despite some worthy genuine attempts, Europe didn\u2019t sufficiently seize the opportunity of the half decade from 2008 to 2013 (in particular the choice of a black president to lead the US lulled it to sleep).<\/p>\n

A weakened US needed Europe\u2019s force to maintain its supremacy; the control of this force was there for the taking since the EU had \u201comitted\u201d to do what was necessary to anchor its political legitimacy; and since the spot was already occupied, European \u201cinsouciance\u201d did the rest. In 2014 the US put a true judo hold on Europe, turning European force against itself and blocking our continent.<\/p>\n

Since the Ukrainian crisis and despite the relative \u201cfreezing\u201d of the situation linked to the Euro-Russian Minsk agreements, the bad news on Europe piles up: non-resolution of the Greek crisis, disastrous elections in Poland<\/a>[1]<\/a>, deployment of US troops on various parts of the continent, blocking of the Euro exchange rate at near parity with the dollar<\/a>[2]<\/a>, disruptive waves of immigration, support of the anti-change political forces at the head of a completely disrupted UK, European inability to implement the measures imposed by the huge crisis, aggressive takeovers of the European economy\u2019s flagships by US businesses<\/a>[3]<\/a>, etc. The more the world frees itself of the US, the more the US hand tightens around the European neck.<\/p>\n

Thus Europe finds itself dragged into the crazy strategy of a hard-line America: attack the multi-polar world from all directions\u2026 of which Europe was, of course, potentially iconic. Russia eliminated from the international game thanks to the Ukraine; China eliminated from the international monetary and financial system thanks to the IMF rejection to include the Yuan in the SDR<\/a>[4]<\/a>\u00a0; Brazil reduced to the rank of speculative borrowers by the US rating agencies<\/a>[5]<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n

Of course, the crisis itself undermines everyone \u00abnaturally\u00a0\u00bb, but malicious action is now so visible that we can\u2019t ignore it without sinking into naivety: the world is bad enough so that acts of intransigence and non-cooperation can\u2019t be interpreted other than the result of a deliberate wish that things should get even worse\u2026 for anything that isn\u2019t American. As we have strongly emphasized throughout the first half of 2015, the solutions and cooperation to introduce around the crisis are henceforth sufficiently obvious so that the acts consistent with hijacking them cannot be anything other than malicious.<\/p>\n

India to the World\u2019s Rescue: Convergence of Characteristics<\/strong><\/p>\n

That said, we still see a last chance for the world to stay on the path of a non-destructive organized transition; and that chance is India.<\/p>\n

We believe that India should profit from a window of opportunity in 2016 which would enable it to be a positive catalyst in the transition towards a multi-polar world. The central argument is as follows: in 2016 India will combine the characteristics which should enable it to interconnect with two other \u201cmajor\u201d BRICS \u2013 Russia and China \u2013 and tip the scales towards a multi-polar world irresistible to Western eyes, with Europe in the front row.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/a>

Figure 1 \u2013 Estimated ages of the Indian and Chinese populations in 2040. Source : Guruprasad.<\/p><\/div>\n

These characteristics are as follows:<\/p>\n

. Demographics:<\/strong> it is generally accepted that India will surpass China in population size by 2030, perhaps even earlier<\/a>[6]<\/a>. As an anticipatory effect, India is therefore upgrading on a not insignificant point (demographic size) with the world number one in this area. This simple fact is in a position to help the West better understand this notion of a multi-polar world which it currently seems to be incapable of imagining, preferring to focus on the prospect of replacing US leadership by a less familiar Chinese one.<\/p>\n

. Youth and dynamism:<\/strong> unlike its two neighbours to the East and West, India displays the energy and youth of its society<\/a>[7]<\/a>, a dynamic and innovative youth that necessarily attracts sympathy, an optimistic social fabric and visibly the bearer of an irresistible future for the world economic players.<\/p>\n

. A consumer society:<\/strong> here, where it still only a goal for China, India already has an economic model oriented towards domestic consumption<\/a>[8]<\/a> and the emergence of an already well represented middle class; it\u2019s a strong asset for stability and the guarantee of greater independence for the country.<\/p>\n

. Connection to the world:<\/strong> Indian society, particularly through its vast global diaspora<\/a>[9]<\/a> \u00a0but also because of its expertise in new technologies<\/a>[10]<\/a>, is very well connected to the world, a world which it understands better since its deepest domestic diversity doesn\u2019t make it see the rest of the world as something very complex. Here again there is a marked difference with China particularly, and with Russia to a lesser extent, two countries which relatively recently emerged from the confinement that we saw.<\/p>\n

. Service economy:<\/strong> if Russia\u2019s wealth makes it depend on highly conflicting energy and raw material international markets and if Chinese industrial power still heavily depends on its ability to export to the major overseas consumer markets, India completes the threesome with its service economy<\/a>[11]<\/a>, more flexible and modern and certainly less dependent on the exterior.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/a>

Figure 2 \u2013 Contribution of services, industry and agriculture to the Indian economy, 1951 \u2013 2013. Source: Wikipedia<\/p><\/div>\n

. Religious diversity:<\/strong> in this multi-polar world which must reinvent religion\u2019 s place in society as Malraux<\/a>[12]<\/a> anticipated, India\u2019s religious diversity makes this country a valuable asset in solving the huge tensions in this area. The major question of Islam\u2019s place in the 21st<\/sup> century world may find a source of understanding and resolution in the Indian model of religious tolerance<\/a>[13]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"Figure<\/a>

Figure 3 \u2013 Religious groups in India: Hindu, Islam, Christian, Sikh, others. Source: Wikipedia<\/p><\/div>\n

. Democracy:<\/strong> here, India enjoys a positive image according to Western standards. Often called \u201cthe largest democracy in the world\u201d (in size) by Westerners themselves<\/a>[14]<\/a>, the imperfections of the Indian political system are easily excused given the difficulty of carrying out the democratic process in such a complex country<\/p>\n

. Strong leadership:<\/strong> Narenda Modi\u2019s \u00ab\u00a0tidal wave\u201d victory last year<\/a>[15]<\/a> favoured India with a very strong leadership which allows it to take important decisions and carry out the changes necessary for the country and beyond. Modi has a real can-do attitude\u2026 perhaps more than anyone else in the world today.<\/p>\n

. Independence:<\/strong> several previous characteristics have shown that India has a good potential for independence. The nationalism displayed by Modi is a further guarantee that his can-do attitude is well placed to serve his country\u2019s interests, interests that can\u2019t exist without a balance with foreign powers. In fact, we see that Modi maintains good relations with the US (putting into practice the partnership agreement with the U.S. Army<\/a>[16]<\/a>) whilst asserting that it must improve those with China<\/a>[17]<\/a> (\u201cyou can\u2019t choose your neighbours\u201d)\u2026<\/p>\n

. Positive international image:<\/strong> the absence of a Communist past, the history of the country\u2019s terrible suffering under British colonization, the heroic character of a peaceful independence process, the memory of the great political leader Gandhi\u2026 and even still the country\u2019s \u201cthird-world\u201d image are just so many factors that make any undermining of the country\u2019s image abroad difficult, especially in Europe.<\/p>\n

. BRICS Presidency:<\/strong> finally, and this isn\u2019t just a detail, India will chair the BR ICS in 2016<\/a>[18]<\/a>, which will make cooperation with Russia and China particularly a state priority and create the conditions for further increased rapprochement. Modi\u2019s exceptional activity internationally<\/a>[19]<\/a> is unlikely to diminish with the responsibility for an agenda of a global nature related to this Presidency.<\/p>\n

This list of characteristics converges in an indication of a strengthened international role for India in 2016, with the strong potential of building on India\u2019s positive image, a positive image for the BRICS and, therefore, for the multi-polar world and blow away all the reservations associated with this development in the West\u2019s eyes.<\/p>\n

That said our team prefers not to express any anticipation on the final outcome related to this potential. Instead we anticipate that because of this potential, India will experience unexpected difficulties in the next few months, even weeks.<\/p>\n

The players or apparatus programmed to prevent this transition will certainly make the same analysis as us and are undoubtedly taking steps already to weaken India. And, in fact, looking more closely, the problems which have surprisingly saved Modi since the beginning of his term of office are starting to appear. Here are two examples:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. the strange revolt by the Patels<\/a>[20]<\/a>, a middle-class caste which has violently attacked Modi\u2019s policies in recent weeks and has the characteristic of being the largest represented caste in the US<\/a>[21]<\/a>;<\/li>\n
  2. this article which begins to set the tone of the attacks of which Modi will be the target in the coming months: India on the way to a constitutional dictatorship<\/a>. The fact is that our team is surprised that the new Indian Prime Minister\u2019s \u201cskeletons\u201d as regards managing ethnic conflicts<\/a>[22]<\/a> haven\u2019t yet appeared. In its own good time\u2026<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    We expect that the Indian BRICS Presidency will take place in a context of major political tensions over India which could reduce the excellent convergence of traditional advantages presented by India in 2016 to nothing.<\/p>\n

    If India is pushed to failure on this point, then the prospects will be irreparably dark for the transition path that the world must take and which will correspond to the to the second of two narratives on the future by Franck Biancheri in 2010 in his book \u00abThe World Crisis\u00a0: The Path to the World Afterwards\u00bb<\/a>, <\/u>a \u201ctragic Twilight\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n

    \u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2014\u2013<\/p>\n

    NOTES:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    <\/a>[1]<\/a> The \u201cunexpected\u201d result of the last Polish elections in favour of the very anti-European and pro-NATO Duda, already commented upon in the last GEAB issue.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[2]<\/a> For several months now, the Euro has been unable to rise above 1.12 to the dollar\u2026 whatever the news: good news on the economy, Chinese sale of dollars, etc.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[3]<\/a> For example: recent revelations about what lies behind Alstom\u2019s takeover by GE (which, moreover, has just confirmed all the GEAB\u2019S analyses on the subject). Source\u00a0: France Inter<\/a>, 10\/09\/2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[4]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Wall Street Journal<\/a>, 19\/08\/2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[5]<\/a> Source\u00a0: The Guardian<\/a>, 10\/09\/2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[6]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Deutsche Welle<\/a>, 04\/09\/2015.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[7]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Economic Times of India<\/a>, 18\/11\/2014.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[8]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Economic Times of India<\/a>, 24\/08\/2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[9]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Indian Diaspora<\/a><\/p>\n

    <\/a>[10]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Economic Times of India<\/a>, 28\/07\/2014<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[11]<\/a> Source\u00a0: IBEF<\/a>, Ao\u00fbt 2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[12]<\/a> It would seem that \u00a0Malraux never actually spoke his famous phrase: \u201cthe 21st-century will be spiritual or will not be\u201d, but rather this one, more explicit and visionary: \u201cI think that the task for the next century, in the face of the most terrible menace that humanity has known, is going to be reinstating the gods\u201d. Source\u00a0: Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>\n

    <\/a>[13]<\/a> By chance, our team has come across this video<\/a> which says much about India\u2019s potential in terms of positive integration through religion and its social diversity.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[14]<\/a> For example, on the European Parliament site. Source\u00a0: Parlement europ\u00e9en<\/a><\/p>\n

    <\/a>[15]<\/a> Source\u00a0: The Telegraph<\/a>, 16\/05\/2014<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[16]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Reuters<\/a>, 14\/07\/2015.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[17]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Quartz<\/a>, 15\/05\/2015.<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[18]<\/a> Source\u00a0: lainfo<\/a>, 09\/07\/2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[19]<\/a> Source\u00a0: Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>\n

    <\/a>[20]<\/a> Source\u00a0: New York Times<\/a>, 07\/09\/2015<\/p>\n

    <\/a>[21]<\/a> See the \u00ab\u00a0Patel Motel\u00a0phenomenon\u00bb. Source\u00a0: Wikipedia<\/a><\/p>\n

    <\/a>[22]<\/a> Source\u00a0: New York Times<\/a>, 19\/08\/2015.<\/p>\n

    Go to Original \u2013 geab.eu<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The central argument is as follows: in 2016 India will combine the characteristics which should enable it to interconnect with two other \u201cmajor\u201d BRICS \u2013 Russia and China \u2013 and tip the scales towards a multi-polar world irresistible to Western eyes, with Europe in the front row.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-66891","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66891","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66891"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66891\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66891"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66891"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66891"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}