{"id":70998,"date":"2016-03-21T13:11:07","date_gmt":"2016-03-21T13:11:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=70998"},"modified":"2016-03-21T13:11:07","modified_gmt":"2016-03-21T13:11:07","slug":"prime-minister-lula-the-brazilian-game-changer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2016\/03\/prime-minister-lula-the-brazilian-game-changer\/","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Prime Minister\u2019 Lula: The Brazilian Game-Changer"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Pepe<\/a>16 Mar 2016 – <\/em>Compared to the political\/economic rollercoaster in Brazil, House of Cards is kindergarten play.<\/p>\n

Only three days after massive street demonstrations calling for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, and less than two weeks after his legally dubious four-hour detention for questioning, former Brazilian President Lula is about to spectacularly re-enter the Brazilian government as a Minister, actually a Super-Minister.<\/p>\n

This is Rousseff\u2019s one and only chess move left amidst an unprecedented political\/economic crisis. Predictably, she will be accused on all fronts \u2013 from comprador elites to Wall Street \u2013 of having abdicated in favor of Lula, while Lula will be accused of hiding from the two-year-old Car Wash corruption investigation.<\/p>\n

Lula and his prot\u00e9g\u00e9 Dilma had two make-or-break, face-to-face meetings in Brasilia, Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, discussing the detailed terms of his re-entry. At first, Lula would only accept a post in government if he becomes Government Secretary \u2013 in charge of political articulation; he would then be part of the hardcore hub that really decides Brazilian policy.<\/p>\n

But then, according to a government minister, who requested anonymity, surged the suggestion of Lula as Chief of Staff \u2013 the most important ministry post in Brazil.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s certain is that Lula is bound to become a sort of \u2018Prime Minister\u2019 \u2013 implying carte blanche to drastically change Dilma\u2019s wobbly economic policy and forcefully reconnect with the Workers\u2019 Party\u2019s large social base, which is mired in deep distress under massive cuts in social spending. If Lula pulls it off \u2013 and that\u2019s a major \u201cif\u201d \u2013 he will also be perfectly positioned as a presidential candidate for the 2018 Brazilian elections, to the despair of the right-wing media-old elite-economic complex.<\/p>\n

Lula\u2019s next role, institutionally, will combine coordinating measures to re-start Brazil\u2019s growth while at the same time realigning the government\u2019s base in Brazil\u2019s notoriously corrupt Congress. He will be immune from the Car Wash investigation \u2013 but he can still be investigated by the Brazilian Supreme Court.<\/p>\n

\"Former<\/a>

Former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff. \u00a9 Reuters<\/p><\/div>\n

The comeback kid?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Lula\u2019s task is nothing short of Sisyphean. How much political capital the former most admired politician in the world retains (Obama: \u201cThat\u2019s the guy\u201d) is open to serious questioning. Even a whiff of the prime ministerial possibility being floated early in the week was enough to plunge the Sao Paulo stock market and drive the US dollar up again. His\u00a0fight<\/a> with the Goddess of the Market will be classic High Noon.<\/p>\n

Lula always privileged balanced budgets and the government\u2019s credibility. For instance, as he ascended to power way back in 2003, he placed former BankBoston ace Henrique Meirelles at the Central Bank and immediately went for a fiscal adjustment, sanitizing expenses and taming inflation.<\/p>\n

Lula is not against a fiscal adjustment per se \u2013 which Brazil badly needs; the problem is Dilma\u2019s own, bumbled adjustment went really hardcore on the Brazilian working classes and lower middle classes, including a raid on unemployment insurance. Lula is essentially against the working classes being excessively punished \u2013 which will only depress the economy even further. The proof that what he did in 2003 was the right thing \u2013 and was part of a calculated long game \u2013 is that Brazil was growing at 7.5 percent a year in 2010.<\/p>\n

A media beast as effective as Bill Clinton in his glory days, Lula will also switch to non-stop PR offensive \u2013 something that the Dilma administration simply does not master. When in power, he always explained his policies in layman\u2019s terms, for instance exhorting people to go shopping and to use the credit his administration was providing. But these were the good old times; now it\u2019s a toxic environment of no consumption, no investment, and no credit.<\/p>\n

Still, Lula is bound to bring Meirelles \u2013 a Wall Street favorite \u2013 back to the Central Bank. Meirelles has already advanced deeply unpopular reforms are essential if Brazil wants to regain its competitiveness.<\/p>\n

\"lula\"<\/a><\/p>\n

All eyes on the Supreme Court<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Lula game-changer is not about to turn the whole complex chessboard upside down; it will instead make it even more unpredictable. The hegemonic judicial-politico-media-old elite-economic complex was screaming for Rousseff\u2019s impeachment as late as last weekend. Yet now nobody knows what post-impeachment Brazil would look like.<\/p>\n

Under the current juncture, a Rousseff impeachment \u2013 who has not been formally accused on any wrongdoing \u2013 translates as a white coup. One of the first acts of \u2018Prime Minister\u2019 Lula, a master negotiator, as he seizes the chessboard, will be to offer a \u2013 what else \u2013 negotiated solution to the crisis, which will imply this administration stays on, including Vice President Temer, whose political party is the PMDB, currently allied with the Workers\u2019 Party.<\/p>\n

In parallel, the Brazilian Attorney General has already collected information on the notorious coke snorting loser of the last presidential elections, right-wing opposition leader Aecio Neves, who among other feats maintains an illegal bank account in Liechtenstein under his mother\u2019s name. He\u2019s bound to be fully investigated<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The attorney general \u2013 based on the former government leader in the Senate ratting out a smatter of notables \u2013 actually is gearing up to\u00a0investigate<\/a> a cast of thousands, from Lula and Dilma\u2019s current Vice President Temer to Neves and the current Education Minister.<\/p>\n

At the same time the heavily politicized, Hollywood-worthy Car Wash investigation will keep firing on all cylinders even as the chief targets \u2013 Rousseff impeached and Lula in chains \u2013 become more elusive. Their key strategy is clear; to intimidate virtually everybody. The federal prosecutors behind Car Wash want to blow up any possibility of a political agreement in Brasilia \u2013 even at the price of plunging Brazil into civil war mixed with further economic depression.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s also clear that without the Brazilian Supreme Court effectively policing the myriad excesses of the Car Wash investigation, there is zero possibility of Brazil emerging from its dire politico-economic crisis.<\/p>\n

And all this while impeachment enters \u2018Walking Dead mode\u2019. Institutionally, an impeachment fast track could last only 45 days. That\u2019s all the time Lula would have to sew up a grand bargain by proving to the PMDB party that the Rousseff administration has become economically viable.<\/p>\n

Before the Lula game-changer, referring to the offensive against Lula, Dilma and the Workers\u2019 Party, crack historian Paulo Alves de Lima told me, \u201cWe\u2019re on the verge of a new stage of a rolling counter-revolution, of an even more restricted democracy, unbearably pregnant with arrogance and institutional violence. We\u2019re closer to Pinochet, to the ideal state enshrined by Friedmanesque neoliberalism. We\u2019re on the verge of mass fascism, which is a big novelty in Brazil.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Pinochet specter, of right-wingers seizing power just like in Brazil in 1964 and Chile in 1973, may be partially exorcized \u2013 for now. But make no mistake: the next few days are bound to be epic. Judge Moro, Car Wash\u2019s Elliot Ness, allied with the Globo media empire, will go no holds barred to prevent any possibility of a political agreement in Brasilia brokered by Lula. Because this would mean Lula not only as Prime Minister, but as President \u2013 again \u2013 in 2018. Total war starts now.<\/p>\n

___________________________________<\/p>\n

Pepe Escobar, from Brazil, is the roving correspondent for Asia Times\/Hong Kong, an analyst for RT and a frequent contributor to websites and radio shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the author of <\/em><\/em>Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2007), <\/em>Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2007), and <\/em>Obama does Globalistan<\/a> (Nimble Books, 2009). His new <\/em>book is Empire of Chaos<\/a>.<\/em> He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 rt.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Only three days after massive street demonstrations calling for the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, and less than two weeks after his legally dubious four-hour detention for questioning, former Brazilian President Lula is about to spectacularly re-enter the Brazilian government as a Minister, actually a Super-Minister. This is Rousseff\u2019s one and only chess move left amidst an unprecedented political\/economic crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[180],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-70998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70998","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70998"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70998\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70998"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70998"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70998"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}