{"id":75609,"date":"2016-06-27T12:00:32","date_gmt":"2016-06-27T11:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=75609"},"modified":"2016-06-25T15:41:13","modified_gmt":"2016-06-25T14:41:13","slug":"why-the-uk-said-bye-bye-to-the-eu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2016\/06\/why-the-uk-said-bye-bye-to-the-eu\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the UK Said Bye Bye to the EU"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"pepeescobar\"<\/a>So what started as a gamble by David Cameron on an outlet for domestic British discontent, to be used as a lever to bargain with Brussels for a few more favors, has metastasized into an astonishing political earthquake about the dis-integration of the European Union.<\/em><\/p>\n

24 Jun 2016 – <\/em>The irrepressibly mediocre Donald Tusk, president of\u00a0the European Council, posing as\u00a0a \u201chistorian\u201d, had warned that Brexit, \u201ccould be the beginning of\u00a0the destruction of\u00a0not only the EU but\u00a0Western political civilization in\u00a0its entirety\u201d.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s foolish. Brexit proved that it\u2019s immigration, stupid. And once again, it\u2019s the economy, stupid (although the British neoliberal establishment never paid attention). But serious bets can be made the EU system in\u00a0Brussels won\u2019t learn anything from\u00a0the shock therapy \u2013 and won\u2019t reform itself. There will be rationalizations that after\u00a0all the UK was always classically whiny, obtrusive and demanding special privileges when dealing with\u00a0the EU. As for \u201cWestern political civilization\u201d, what will end \u2013 and this is a big thing\u00a0\u2014 is the special transatlantic relationship between\u00a0the US and the EU with\u00a0Britain as\u00a0an American Trojan Horse.<\/p>\n

So of\u00a0course this all goes monumentally beyond\u00a0a mere match between\u00a0a hopelessly miscalculating Cameron, now fallen on\u00a0his sword, and the recklessly ambitious court jester Boris Johnson \u2013 a Donald Trump with\u00a0better vocabulary and speech patterns.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

So of\u00a0course this all goes monumentally beyond\u00a0a mere match between\u00a0a hopelessly miscalculating Cameron, now fallen on\u00a0his sword, and the recklessly ambitious court jester Boris Johnson \u2013 a Donald Trump with\u00a0better vocabulary and speech patterns.<\/p>\n

\"uk<\/a><\/p>\n

Scotland, predictably, voted Remain, and may probably hold a new referendum\u00a0\u2014 and leave the UK\u00a0\u2014 rather than\u00a0be dragged out\u00a0by white working class English votes. Sinn Fein already wants a vote on\u00a0united Ireland. Denmark, the Netherlands and even Poland and Hungary will want special status inside\u00a0the EU, or else. Across Europe, the extreme right stampede is on. Marine Le Pen wants a French referendum. Geert Wilders wants a Dutch referendum. As for\u00a0the vast majority of\u00a0British under-25s who voted Remain, they may be contemplating one-way tickets not to\u00a0the continent, but\u00a0beyond.<\/p>\n

Show me the people<\/strong><\/p>\n

Anglo-French historian Robert Tombs has remarked that when Europeans talk about\u00a0history they refer to\u00a0the Roman Empire, the Renaissance and the Enlightenment. Great Britain is somewhat overlooked. In reciprocity, quite a few Britons still consider Europe an entity that should be kept at\u00a0a safe distance.<\/p>\n

To compound the problem, this is not a \u201cEurope of\u00a0peoples\u201d. Brussels absolutely detests European public opinion, and the system exhibits an iron resistance to\u00a0reform. This current EU project that ultimately aims at\u00a0a federation, modeled on\u00a0the US, does not cut it in\u00a0most of\u00a0Britain. Arguably this is one of\u00a0the key reasons behind\u00a0Brexit \u2013 which for\u00a0its part has already disunited the kingdom and may eventually downgrade it into\u00a0a tiny trading post on\u00a0the edge of\u00a0Europe.<\/p>\n

Lacking a \u201cEuropean people\u201d, the Brussels system could not but\u00a0be articulated as\u00a0a Kafkaesque, unelected bureaucracy. Moreover, the representatives of\u00a0this people-deprived Europe in\u00a0Brussels actually defend what they consider to\u00a0be their national interest, and not the \u201cEuropean\u201d interest.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Brexit<\/a> though does not mean Britain will be free from\u00a0the dictates of\u00a0the European Commission (EC). The EC does propose policy, but\u00a0nothing can be followed through\u00a0without decisions from\u00a0the European Parliament and the Council of\u00a0Ministers, which group representatives of\u00a0all elected governments of\u00a0member states.<\/p>\n

Arguably Remain, in\u00a0the best possible case, would have led to\u00a0some soul-searching in\u00a0Brussels, and a wake-up call, translating into\u00a0a more flexible monetary policy; a push to\u00a0contain immigration inside\u00a0African borders; and more opening towards\u00a0Russia. The UK would remain in\u00a0Europe giving more weight to\u00a0countries outside\u00a0the eurozone while Germany would concentrate on\u00a0the 19-member eurozone nations.<\/p>\n

So Remain would have led to\u00a0the UK increasing its politico-economic weight in\u00a0Brussels while Germany would be more open to\u00a0moderate growth (instead of\u00a0austerity). Although Britain arguably would wince at\u00a0the notion of\u00a0a future eurozone Treasure Minister, a European FBI and a European Minister of\u00a0the Interior, in\u00a0fact the whole notion of\u00a0a complete economic and monetary union<\/a>.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s all water under\u00a0the bridge now. Additionally, don\u2019t forget the mighty single market drama.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The UK not only will lose duty-free access to\u00a0the EU\u2019s single market of\u00a0500 million people; it will have to\u00a0renegotiate every single trade deal with\u00a0the rest of\u00a0the world since\u00a0all of\u00a0them have been EU-negotiated. French economy minister and presidential hopeful Emmanuel Macron has already warned that, \u201cif the UK wants a commercial access treaty to\u00a0the European market, the British must contribute to\u00a0the European budget like\u00a0the Norwegians and the Swiss do. If London doesn\u2019t want that, then it must be a total exit.\u201d Britain will be locked out\u00a0of the single market \u2013 to\u00a0which over\u00a050% of\u00a0its exports go\u00a0\u2014 unless it pays almost all that it currently pays. Moreover, London must still accept freedom of\u00a0movement, as\u00a0in European immigration.<\/p>\n

The City gets a black eye<\/strong><\/p>\n

Brexit defeated an overwhelming array of\u00a0what Zygmunt Bauman defined as\u00a0the global elites of\u00a0liquid modernity; the City of\u00a0London, Wall Street, the IMF, the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), major hedge\/investment funds, the whole interconnected global banking system.<\/p>\n

The City of\u00a0London, predictably, voted Remain by\u00a0over 75%.\u00a0 An overwhelming $2.7 trillion is traded every day in\u00a0the \u201csquare mile\u201d, which employs almost 400,000 people. And it\u2019s not only the square mile, as\u00a0the City now also includes Canary Wharf (HQ of\u00a0quite a few big banks) and Mayfair (privileged hang out\u00a0of hedge funds).<\/p>\n

The City of\u00a0London \u2013 the undisputed financial capital of\u00a0Europe\u00a0\u2014 also manages a whopping $1.65 trillion of\u00a0client assets, wealth literally from\u00a0all over\u00a0the planet. In\u00a0Treasure Islands<\/a>, Nicholas Shaxson argues, \u201cfinancial services companies have flocked to\u00a0London because it lets them do what they cannot do at\u00a0home\u201d.<\/p>\n

Unbridled deregulation coupled with\u00a0unrivalled influence on\u00a0the global economic system amount to\u00a0a toxic mix. So Brexit may also be interpreted as\u00a0a vote against\u00a0corruption permeating England\u2019s most lucrative industry.<\/p>\n

Things will change. Drastically. There will be no more \u201cpassporting\u201d, by\u00a0which banks can sell products for\u00a0all 28 EU members, accessing a $19 trillion integrated economy. All it takes is a HQ in\u00a0London and a few satellite mini-offices. Passporting will be up\u00a0for fierce negotiation, as\u00a0well as\u00a0what happens to\u00a0London\u2019s euro-denominated trading floors.<\/p>\n

I followed Brexit out\u00a0of Hong Kong \u2013 which 19 years ago had its own Brexit, actually saying bye bye to\u00a0the British Empire to\u00a0join China. Beijing is worried that Brexit will translate into\u00a0capital outflows, \u201cdepreciation pressure\u201d on\u00a0the yuan, and disturbance of\u00a0the Bank of\u00a0China\u2019s management of\u00a0monetary policy.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Brexit could even seriously affect China-EU relations, as\u00a0Beijing in\u00a0thesis might lose influence in\u00a0Brussels without\u00a0British support. It\u2019s crucial to\u00a0remember that Britain backed an investment pact between\u00a0China and the EU and a joint feasibility study on\u00a0a China-EU free trade agreement.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

He Weiwen, co-director of\u00a0the China-US-EU Study Centre under\u00a0the China Association of\u00a0International Trade, part of\u00a0the Ministry of\u00a0Commerce, is blunt; \u201cThe European Union is likely to\u00a0adopt a more protectionist approach when dealing with\u00a0China. For Chinese companies which have set up\u00a0headquarters or branches in\u00a0the UK, they may not be able to\u00a0enjoy tariff-free access to\u00a0the wider European market after\u00a0Britain leave the EU.\u201d<\/p>\n

That applies, for\u00a0instance, to\u00a0leading Chinese high-tech companies like\u00a0Huawei and Tencent. Between 2000 and 2015, Britain was the top European destination for\u00a0Chinese direct investment, and was the second-largest trading partner with\u00a0China inside\u00a0the EU.<\/p>\n

Still, it may all revert into\u00a0a win-win for\u00a0China. Germany, France and Luxembourg \u2013 all of\u00a0them competing with\u00a0London for\u00a0the juicy offshore yuan business \u2013 will increase their role. Chen Long, economist with\u00a0Bank of\u00a0Dongguan, is confident \u201cthe European continent, especially Central and Eastern European countries, will be more actively involved in\u00a0China\u2019s \u2018One Belt, One Road\u2019 programs.\u201d<\/p>\n

So will Britain become the new Norway? It\u2019s possible. Norway did very well after\u00a0rejecting EU membership in\u00a0a 1995 referendum. It will be a long and winding road before\u00a0Article 50 is invoked and a two-year UK-EU negotiation in\u00a0uncharted territory starts. Former UK Chancellor of\u00a0the Exchequer Alistair Darling summed it all up; \u201cNobody has a clue what \u2018Out\u2019 looks like.\u201d<\/p>\n

__________________________________<\/p>\n

Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian independent geopolitical analyst. He is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. He has been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9\/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of \u201cGlobalistan<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cRed Zone Blues<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cObama does Globalistan<\/a>\u201d (2009) and \u201cEmpire of Chaos<\/a>\u201d (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is \u201c2030<\/a>\u201c, also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 sputiniknews.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

24 Jun 2016 – The irrepressibly mediocre Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, posing as a \u201chistorian\u201d, had warned that Brexit, \u201ccould be the beginning of the destruction of not only the EU but Western political civilization in its entirety\u201d. That\u2019s foolish. Brexit proved that it\u2019s immigration, stupid. And once again, it\u2019s the economy, stupid (although the British neoliberal establishment never paid attention).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-75609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75609"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75609\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}