{"id":76358,"date":"2016-07-18T12:00:12","date_gmt":"2016-07-18T11:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=76358"},"modified":"2016-07-14T14:46:26","modified_gmt":"2016-07-14T13:46:26","slug":"from-brexit-in-the-uk-to-austerity-in-spain-europe-is-on-the-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2016\/07\/from-brexit-in-the-uk-to-austerity-in-spain-europe-is-on-the-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"From Brexit in the UK to Austerity in Spain, Europe is on the Edge"},"content":{"rendered":"

European elites are blaming “stupid” voters for turning against an economic system that hasn’t worked for them. <\/em><\/p>\n

\"<\/a>

(Photo: Pixaby)<\/p><\/div>\n

7 Jul 2016 – <\/em>On the surface, the June 23 Brexit and the June 26 Spanish elections don\u2019t look comparable.<\/p>\n

After a nasty campaign filled with racism and Islamophobia, the British \u2014 or rather, the English and the Welsh \u2014 took a leap into darkness and voted to leave the European Union. Spanish voters, on the other hand, rejected change and backed a center-right party that embodies the policies of the Brussels-based trade organization.<\/p>\n

But deep down the fault lines in both countries converge.<\/p>\n

For the first time since Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan rolled out a variety of neoliberal capitalism and globalization that captured much of the world in the 1980s, that model is under siege. The economic strategy of regressive taxes, widespread privatization, and deregulation has generated enormous wealth for the few, but growing impoverishment for the many. The top 1 percent now owns more than 50 percent of the world\u2019s wealth.<\/p>\n

The British election may have focused on immigration and the fear of \u201cthe other\u201d \u2014 Turks, Syrians, Greeks, Poles, etc. \u2014 but this xenophobia stems from the anger and despair of people who have been marginalized or left behind by the globalization of the labor force that has systematically hollowed out small communities and destroyed decent paying jobs and benefits.<\/p>\n

\u201cGreat Britain\u2019s citizens haven\u2019t been losing control of their fate to the EU,\u201d wrote Richard Eskow<\/a> of the Campaign for America\u2019s Future. \u201cThey\u2019ve have been losing it because their own country\u2019s leaders \u2014 as well as those of most Western democracies \u2014 are increasingly in thrall to corporate and financial interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

While most of the mainstream media reported the Spanish election as a \u201cvictory\u201d for acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy\u2019s conservative People\u2019s Party and defeat for the left, it was more a reshuffle<\/a> than a major turn to the right. If Rajoy manages to cobble together a government, it is likely to be fragile and short lived.<\/p>\n

The Shadow of Brexit<\/strong><\/p>\n

It was a dark couple of nights for pollsters in both countries.<\/p>\n

British polls predicted a narrow defeat for the Brexit, and Spanish polls projected a major breakthrough for Spain\u2019s left \u2014 in particular Unidos Podemos (UP), a new alliance between Podemos and the Communist\/Green United Left bloc.<\/p>\n

Instead, the Brexit passed easily and the UP lost 1 million votes from the last election, ending up with the same number of seats they had in the old parliament. In contrast, the People\u2019s Party added 14 seats, although it fell well short of a majority.<\/p>\n

A major reason for the Spanish outcome was the Brexit, which roiled markets all over the world but had a particularly dramatic effect<\/a> on Spain. The Ibex share index plunged more than 12 percent and blue-chip stocks took a pounding, losing about $70 billion. It was, according to Spain\u2019s largest business newspaper, \u201cthe worst session ever.\u201d Rajoy \u2014 as well as the center-left Socialist Party \u2014 flooded the media with scare talk about stability, and it partly worked.<\/p>\n

The Popular Party poached eight of its 14 new seats from the center-right Ciudadanos Party and probably convinced some potential Podemos voters to shift to the mainstream Socialists. But Rajoy\u2019s claim<\/a> that \u201cWe won the election. We demand the right to govern\u201d is a reach. His party has 137 seats, and it needs 176 seats to reach a majority in the 350-seat parliament.<\/p>\n

The prime minister says he plans to join with Ciudadanos. But because the latter lost seats in the election, such an alliance would put Rajoy seven votes short. An offer for a \u201cgrand alliance\u201d with the Socialists doesn\u2019t seem to be going anywhere either. \u201cWe are not going to support Rajoy\u2019s investiture or abstain,\u201d said Socialist Party spokesman Antonio Hernando<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Which doesn\u2019t mean Rajoy can\u2019t form a government. There are some independent deputies from the Basque country and the Canary Islands who might put Rajoy over the top, but it would be the first coalition government in Spain \u2014 and a fragile one at that.<\/p>\n

Austerity on the Horizon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Part of that fragility is a scandal over an email<\/a> between Rajoy and Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the European Commission, that was leaked to the media. The Commission is part of the \u201ctroika\u201d with the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank that largely decides economic policy in the EU.<\/p>\n

During the election, Rajoy promised to cut taxes and moderate the troika-imposed austerity measures that have driven Spain\u2019s national unemployment rate to 22 percent, and a catastrophic 45 percent among young people. But in a confidential email to Juncker, the prime minister pledged, \u201cIn the second half of 2016, once there is a new government, we will be ready to take further measures to meet deficit goals.\u201d<\/p>\n

In short, Rajoy lied to the voters. If his party had won an absolute majority, that might not be a problem, but a coalition government is another matter. Would Ciudadanos and the independents be willing to associate themselves with such deceit and take the risk that the electorate would not punish them, given that such a government is not likely to last four years?<\/p>\n

Unidos Podemos supporters were deeply disappointed in the outcome, although the UP took the bulk of the youth vote and triumphed<\/a> in Catalonia, Spain\u2019s wealthiest province, and the Basque country. What impact UP\u2019s poor showing will have on divisions within the alliance isn\u2019t clear, but predictions of the organization\u2019s demise are premature. \u201cWe represent the future,\u201d party leader Pablo Iglesia said after the vote.<\/p>\n

There is a possible path to power for the left, although it leads through the Socialist Party. The SP dropped from 90 seats to 85 for its worst showing in history, but if it joins with the UP it would control 156 seats. If such a coalition includes the Catalans that would bring it to 173 seats, and the alliance could probably pick up some independents to make a majority. This is exactly what the left, agreeing to shelve their differences for the time being, did in Portugal after the last election.<\/p>\n

The problem is that the SP refuses to break bread with the Catalans because separatists dominate the province\u2019s delegation and the Socialist Party opposes letting Catalonia hold a referendum on independence. Podemos also opposes Catalan separatism, but it supports the right of the Catalans to vote on the issue.<\/p>\n

Europe\u2019s House Divided<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rajoy may construct a government, but it will be one that supports the dead-end austerity policies that have encumbered most of the EU\u2019s members with low or flat growth rates, high unemployment, and widening economic inequality. Support for the EU is at an all time low<\/a>, even in the organization\u2019s core members, France and Germany.<\/p>\n

The crisis generated by the free market model is hardly restricted to Europe. Here in the United States, much of Donald Trump\u2019s support comes from the same disaffected cohort that drove the Brexit. And while \u201cThe Donald\u201d is down in the polls, so were the Brexit and the Spanish People\u2019s Party.<\/p>\n

The next few years will be filled with opportunity, as well as danger. Anti-austerity forces in Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland are organizing and beginning to coordinate resistance to the troika. But so too are parties on the far right: France\u2019s National Front, Hungary\u2019s Jobbik, Greece\u2019s Golden Dawn, Britain\u2019s United Kingdom Independence Party, Austria\u2019s Freedom Party, Denmark\u2019s People\u2019s Party, and the Sweden Democrats.<\/p>\n

Instead of reconsidering the policies that have spread so much misery through the continent, European elites were quick to blame \u201cstupid\u201d and \u201cracist\u201d voters for the Brexit. \u201cWe are witnessing the implosion of the postwar cultural and economic order that has dominated the Euro-American zone for more than six decades,\u201d writes Andrew O\u2019Helir of Salon<\/em>.<\/a> \u201cClosing our eyes and hoping that it will go away is not likely to be successful.\u201d<\/p>\n

A majority of Britain said \u201cenough,\u201d and while the Spanish right scared voters into backing away from a major course change, those voters will soon discover that what is in store for them is yet more austerity.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe need to end austerity to end this disaffection and this existential crisis of the European project,\u201d said a UP statement<\/a> following the election. \u201cWe need to democratize decision making, guarantee social rights, and respect human rights.\u201d<\/p>\n

The European Union is now officially a house divided. It is not clear how long it can stand.<\/p>\n

\u00a0_____________________________________<\/em><\/p>\n

Conn M. Hallinan is an independent journalist who holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of California, Berkeley. He oversaw the journalism program at the University of California at Santa Cruz for 23 years, and won the UCSC Alumni Association\u2019s Distinguished Teaching Award, as well as UCSC\u2019s Innovations in Teaching Award, and Excellence in Teaching Award. \u00a0He was also a college provost at UCSC, and retired in 2004. He is a winner of a Project Censored \u201cReal News Award,\u201d and lives in Berkeley, California.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 fpif.org<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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