{"id":78335,"date":"2016-08-29T12:00:00","date_gmt":"2016-08-29T11:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=78335"},"modified":"2016-08-28T14:51:37","modified_gmt":"2016-08-28T13:51:37","slug":"the-sky-above-turkey","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2016\/08\/the-sky-above-turkey\/","title":{"rendered":"The Sky above Turkey"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"richard<\/a>23 Aug 2016 – An earlier version was published by <\/em>Middle East Eye on\u00a0August 10. It seems so important at this time for the sake of the future of Turkey that the West look at the country and its political circumstances in a far more balanced way than how the situation has been portrayed since the coup. How to explain this imbalance is another matter that should be explored at some point, but for now is largely put aside.<\/em><\/p>\n

Much uncertainty remains in Turkey, but there is enough evidence of positive tendencies to raise a tentative banner of hope. Being a witness to the political atmosphere in Turkey\u00a0that has emerged\u00a0after the failed coup of July 15th<\/sup> puts me at odds with the secular consensus in the West, which looks up at the sky and sees only dark, ominous clouds of human rights abuse and autocratic leadership. What I have experienced and observed so far is quite different, a sky with much blue in it.<\/p>\n

There are two opposed, although overlapping, tendencies present that seemed to be responsive to the political priorities that top the post-coup government agenda: sustaining the anti-coup unity by shifting political gears within the AKP leadership circles in the direction of \u201cinclusive democracy\u201d\u00a0and pragmatism, and with it, a retreat from the polarizing claims of \u201cmajoritarian democracy\u201d that greatly intensified after the 2011 national elections and were particularly evident in the clumsy, unacceptable way the Turkish government handled the Gezi Park demonstrations two years later.<\/p>\n

The most important concrete embodiment of this post-15 July\u00a0move toward inclusiveness has been a series of initatives intended to create a common front between the three leading political parties in the country, including the CHP (secular mainstream) and MHP (nationalist rightest) opposition parties. This has been reinforced by several other developments, including a pragmatic approach to foreign policy and a decision by Recip Tayyip Erdo\u011fan to drop the many law suits under a Turkish law that makes it a civil wrong to insult the president.<\/p>\n

The Ataturk Effect<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is also a reinforcement of these developments with clear evidence of an AKP appreciation of Kemal Ataturk as heroic founder of the country and defender of its political independence and unity, which had been notably absent from the AKP political profile ever since it initially took power in 2002.<\/p>\n

It was notable that Erdo\u011fan at his dramatic press conference at the Istanbul Airport on the night of the attempted coup spoke below a giant portrait of Ataturk. This gesture was reinforced by the dominance of huge poster pictures of Erdo\u011fan and Ataturk, and no one else, behind the speaker stage at the immense\u00a0 August\u00a07th<\/sup> Democracy Watch rally, and even more so by a long Ataturk quotation in the course of Erdo\u011fan\u2019s speech, the highlight of the event.\u00a0This emphasis on Ataturk\u2019s guidance has also been notable in the CHP effort to interpret the defeat of the coup as a great victory of Turkish democracy, as well as a historic moment of national unity and patriotic fervor. It needs to be understood that invoking the image and thought of Ataturk are ways of expressing two realities:\u00a0most significantly, a reaffirmation of the secularist orientation of the Turkish state accompanied by recognition that Turkey was experiencing a supreme \u201cpatriotic moment\u201d that took precedence over all the pre-coup political divisions that had created such toxic polarization prior to July 15th.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Learning from Mistakes<\/strong><\/p>\n

Also notable, and a return to an earlier style, has been the generally calm tone and restrained substance of Erdogan\u2019s leadership.\u00a0In the domestic pro-AKP media, there have been references back to Erdo\u011fan\u2019s then controversial advice to the Egyptian people to insist on a secular foundation for the governing process following the Tahrir uprising that overthrew Mubarak, a position at the time deeply resented by the Muslim Brotherhood as an intrusion on Egyptian internal politics and distrusted or ignored by the secular opposition to Erdo\u011fan in Turkey and abroad.<\/p>\n

Looking back, Egypt would almost certainly have benefitted greatly if it had followed Erdo\u011fan\u2019s advice, with the \u0138implication that Turkey\u2019s present crisis was brought about by allowing the religiously oriented movement of Fetullah G\u00fclen to penetrate so deeply into the sinews of government.<\/p>\n

Of course, anti-AKP voices insist, with reason, that Erdo\u011fan failed to adhere to his own guidelines, both by insinuating political Islam into the appointment and policy process of the Turkish state in recent years and also by striking an opportunistic bargain with G\u00fclen forces that years earlier paved the way for this exercise of pernicious religious influence within the Turkish state. Perhaps it is possible to learn from this past while admitting past mistakes (as Erdo\u011fan has done by his extraordinary apology to the nation for past collaboration with and trust in the G\u00fclen movement).<\/p>\n

\u2018As Many Friends as Possible\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n

Another facet of the present understanding of July 15th\u00a0is the widespread agreement across the Turkish political spectrum that the US was involved to some degree in relation to the coup. To what degree is a matter of wildly divergent beliefs ranging from active complicity to passive and indirect support. There is even the opinion present in Turkey that the timing of the coup reflected US government nervousness about Ankara\u2019s seeming turn toward Mosow, and at minimum, if the coup had succeeded, Washington it seems would have shed few tears (just as it did after the democratically elected government was overthrown by a coup in 2013).<\/p>\n

What lends some credibility to such suspicions is that a major foreign policy reset was underway and in motion prior to the coup attempt. It was centered upon diplomatic initiatives seeking to restore positive diplomatic and economic relations with Russia and Israel, and possibly even with Syria, Iran, and Egypt.\u00a0Prospects for normalisation with Egypt took a turn for the worse as a result of Cairo\u2019s seeming sympathy with the coup attempt, including possible receptivity to an asylum request from Fettulah G\u00fclen.<\/p>\n

Yet what seems in many respects to be a second coming of Turkey\u2019s pre-Arab Spring approach of \u201czero problems with neighbours\u201d has been reformulated by the current prime minister, Binali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m, in a similar formula: \u201cas many friends as possible, and as few enemies.\u201d<\/p>\n

This apparent move away from the sort of ideological foreign policy that Turkey has pursued since 2011 may not be pleasing to hardliners in the US and Europe, but it certainly makes sense from the perspective of Turkish national interests, given current national and regional realities.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Atmosphere of Fear<\/strong><\/p>\n

Having pointed to some positive responses by the Turkish government to the crisis following the coup attempt, let me mention a few disturbing negative features of the present atmosphere.\u00a0Erdo\u011fan mobilized mass street support on the night of the failed coup, an initiative that even most of his critics here in Turkey treat as a stroke of political genius that probably turned the tide of battle on the fateful evening of July 15th<\/sup>. Yet some\u00a0fear that the nightly continuation of populist demonstration that continued for three weeks were leading the country back in the direction of majoritarian democracy and reawakened polarization, and something even worse, if the temporary consensus with the opposition starts to fray.<\/p>\n

Also extremely worrisome are mass detentions, arrests, dismissals, and suspensions involving many thousands of people, many of whom are viewed as innocent of any incriminating involvement. There are also reliable reports of torture and abuse involving some of those being held, creating a widespread atmosphere of fear and intimidation, making some people even scared to voice their views.<\/p>\n

Given the fresh memories of the coup attempt, its brutal violence, and the realistic worry that pro-coup elements remain strategically situated in the governing structures of society, great pressure to strengthen internal security exists and should be interpreted with a measure of sympathy, or at least understanding. There is some reason to be guardedly hopeful as many individuals have been cleared and released, and the leadership has repeatedly promised to proceed in accord with the rule of law, including making diligent efforts not to confuse G\u00fclen conspirators with anti-AKP critics.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Populist Pressure<\/strong><\/p>\n

There is also reason to be concerned about Erdogan\u2019s demagogic appeals that seem designed to mobilize populist pressures on Parliament to restore capital punishment for the intended purpose of prosecuting and punishing Fetullah G\u00fclen. It should be better appreciated in Turkey that any attempted application of capital punishment to Gulen would be unacceptably retroactive, and a violation of the rule of law as universally understood.<\/p>\n

Among other effects, such a prospect would give the United States a credible legal pretext to deny the pending extradition request, which in turn would create a storm of anti-American resentment in Turkey. It is helpful to do a thought experiment that captures the Turkish political mood. The overwhelming majority of Turks feel what Americans would have felt if after the 9\/11 attacks a supposedly friendly government had given safe haven to Osama Bin Laden.<\/p>\n

The most shortsighted aspect of the current approach is the evident decision by Erdo\u011fan to stop short of including the pro-Kurdish political party, HDP or People\u2019s Democratic Party, in the national unity approach, and the absence of any show of a willingness to renew a peace process with the Kurdish national movement, including representatives of the PKK. The government contends that this is not possible to do so long as the PKK engages in armed struggle, which proceeds on a daily basis.<\/p>\n

Given ongoing concerns with the Islamic State (IS) group and spillovers from the Syrian war, the future of Turkey will seem far brighter if the Kurdish dimension can be constructively addressed.<\/p>\n

\u00a0Concluding Observation<\/strong><\/p>\n

What remains after this look at present pros and cons is a core reality of uncertainty, yet I believe there is presently enough evidence of positive tendencies, to raise a tentative banner of hope about the Turkish future. Such a banner is also justified as a counter to the banner of despair and rage being waved so vigorously by anti- Erdo\u011fan zealots around the world with much support given by mainstream media and not a few governments in the West who withheld support of the Turkish government in its hour of need and have been reluctant to accept the allegations that the coup was the work of the movement headed by Fetullah G\u00fclen from his informal headquarters in Pennsylvania. It is hardly surprising that Ankara should be looking elsewhere for friends, and even contemplating turning its back on Europe, and conceivably even NATO. It could be that a major geopolitical realignment is underway, or maybe not. If it occurs it will be the most significant change in the geopolitical landscape since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the aftermath of the Cold War.<\/p>\n

__________________________________<\/p>\n

Richard Falk is a member of the TRANSCEND Network<\/a>, an international relations scholar, professor emeritus of international law at Princeton University, author, co-author or editor of 40 books, and a speaker and activist on world affairs.\u00a0In 2008, the United Nations Human Rights Council<\/a> (UNHRC) appointed Falk to a six-year term as a United Nations Special Rapporteur<\/a> on “the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories<\/a> occupied since 1967.” Since 2002 he has lived in Santa Barbara, California, and taught at the local campus of the University of California in Global and International Studies, and since 2005 chaired the Board of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation. His most recent book is <\/em>Achieving Human Rights (2009).<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 richardfalk.wordpress.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

23 Aug 2016 – It seems so important at this time for the sake of the future of Turkey that the West look at the country and its political circumstances in a far more balanced way than how the situation has been portrayed since the coup. How to explain this imbalance is another matter that should be explored at some point, but for now is largely put aside.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78335","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-middle-east-north-africa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78335","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=78335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/78335\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=78335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=78335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=78335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}