{"id":82480,"date":"2016-11-07T12:00:12","date_gmt":"2016-11-07T12:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=82480"},"modified":"2016-11-05T14:42:28","modified_gmt":"2016-11-05T14:42:28","slug":"threats-and-strategic-patience-havent-worked-with-north-korea-lets-try-serious-diplomacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2016\/11\/threats-and-strategic-patience-havent-worked-with-north-korea-lets-try-serious-diplomacy\/","title":{"rendered":"Threats and \u201cStrategic Patience\u201d Haven\u2019t Worked with North Korea, Let\u2019s Try Serious Diplomacy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"martinkevin\"<\/a><\/strong>5 Nov 2016 – <\/em>Last week, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper surprisingly told a House Intelligence Committee that getting North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons was probably a \u201clost cause.\u201d The assessment was not surprising, but rather the candor, an admission the Obama Administration\u2019s policy of \u201cstrategic patience\u201d \u2014 refusing to negotiate with North Korea and hoping economic sanctions and international isolation would bring it to the negotiating table \u2014 has failed.<\/p>\n

Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken contradicted Clapper almost immediately, trying to re-assure South Korea, Japan and other regional allies the U.S. has not thrown in the towel, that the U.S. does not accept North Korea\u2019s possessing a nuclear arsenal. In the midst of all this, unofficial talks with the North Korean government were taking place in Malaysia.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the best course would be to test the proposition by some serious engagement in which we see whether their (North Korea\u2019s) legitimate security concerns can be met,\u201d said Robert Gallucci, a participant in the Malaysia talks and lead negotiator of a 1994 disarmament agreement that curbed North Korea\u2019s nuclear program for nearly 10 years. This is a rare admission that North Korea has legitimate concerns, which is welcome.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe don\u2019t know for sure that negotiations will work, but what I can say with some confidence is that pressure without negotiations won\u2019t work, which is the track we are on right now,\u201d noted Leon Sigal from the New York-based Social Science Research Council. Sigal also took part in the Malaysia talks.<\/p>\n

While it is cause for serious concern, no one should be surprised by North Korea\u2019s insistence on maintaining its nuclear arsenal. Tensions in the region are high, and require a serious commitment to diplomacy and disarmament by all parties, rather than recent threats by South Korea to ramp up its military posture. Informal talks with North Korean officials are better than nothing, but no replacement for formal negotiations on a peace treaty to replace the supposedly temporary armistice in place since the end of the Korean War in 1953. Surrounded by far superior militaries (those of the United States, South Korea and Japan) it is no wonder North Korean leaders feel the need to keep their nukes.<\/p>\n

Threats against the North have proven a failure. A far cheaper and more effective strategy to eliminate North Korea\u2019s nuclear arsenal would include the following:<\/p>\n