{"id":82858,"date":"2016-11-14T12:00:37","date_gmt":"2016-11-14T12:00:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=82858"},"modified":"2016-11-12T14:22:14","modified_gmt":"2016-11-12T14:22:14","slug":"no-trumps-to-diplomacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2016\/11\/no-trumps-to-diplomacy\/","title":{"rendered":"No Trumps to Diplomacy"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"vithal-rajan\"<\/a>11 Nov 2016 – <\/em>\u2018Scribble, scribble, scribble, eh, Mr. Gibbon?\u2019 the Earl of Derby is supposed to have said. \u2018What, another thick fat book?\u2019 Gibbon was not trying to ensure tenure at a university or win the Booker Prize. Like earlier historians, Thucydides\u00a0 and Tacitus, he wrote about a period that he considered would have important lessons for the future. After the death of Julius Caesar, the conqueror, Augustus, the first Emperor, concentrated all power in his hands ending Rome\u2019s democratic traditions. Tiberius corrupted the system further. Caligula took Rome deeper into cruelty and destruction. Nero\u2019s buffoonery signaled the long cynical decline of all social values till Rome ceased to be the centre of the Western world.<\/p>\n

A curious parallel exists today in the history of the American empire. It started with the laurels of conquest encircling Eisenhower\u2019s brows. Like Augustus, Kennedy and Johnson affirmed their imperial supremacy. Ronald Reagan corrupted the economic system, the Bushes, father and son, were cruel tyrants for the people of the Middle East. And now we have the showman Donald Trump, who can be laughed at but is very dangerous. There is even a parallel between Claudius and Obama, both decent men, forced to invade other lands to prove their imperial credentials.<\/p>\n

Many analysts have foreseen the rise of Chinese economic \u00a0hegemony in the 21st<\/sup> century, its global spread hindered only by commercial competition from the European Union and by military containment by America. Adventurism in the South China Seas is a portent of American intentions and a measure of its capability. However, the establishment within the Washington beltway has garnered enough experience to know where to draw the line, after the early days of John Dulles\u2019s reckless brinkmanship. But now the White House will have a loose cannon, with no diplomatic experience and limited imagination. The world will have to depend on sophisticated Chinese gamesmanship, as it once did on Krushchev\u2019s sanity during the Cuban Missile Crisis. The American empire, like the Roman, is exhausting itself trying to retain its territories through military force. The Chinese have understood clearly that today power is maintained through economic strength and not through territorial expansion, however much they may try and confuse others through proposed threats.<\/p>\n

The 45th<\/sup> American Presidency of Trump\u2019s will undoubtedly embolden the large number of Americans who are racist, xenophobic, islamophobic, and violent in their intentions. With very expensive but failing military adventures abroad and spreading poverty at home, the frustrations of redneck America will mount. A deafening cacophony of rising anger from Trump\u2019s supporters enveloping \u00a0an increasing inability to govern could well destabilize the American establishment into doing the one thing they would have wished to avoid. Establishments have been trapped before in the illogicality of their own rhetoric. That was how the Great War was started in 1914. The world will have to bet on Chinese moderation \u2013 after all they can afford to wait, while America destroys its own capabilities.\u00a0 In addition to this expectation is the space offered by the Middle East and Pakistan for America to vent its islamophobic spleen.<\/p>\n

South Asia has suddenly become an even more dangerous place for people. The right wing in India, maddened by media, has been yelling for strong military responses to terrorist incursions from Pakistan. At this dangerous moment, India\u2019s Defence Minister has openly questioned why his hands should be tied by \u2018no first use\u2019 of nuclear weapons! Such hyper-militancy could well play into the hands of the right wing of Pakistan\u2019s military, which in reality continues to control that country\u2019s destiny. Nothing would please that military core more than an all-out war. Rash withdrawal of American support could well destabilize that volatile military leadership into hasty counter threats. Any war between India and Pakistan could escalate into nuclear exchange. None of India\u2019s allies, such as the USA, the UK, and Russia, seem to possess the diplomatic skills needed to pull back these war-like neighbours from the brink of war. The first tragic impact of Trump\u2019s presidency could well be felt in this region.<\/p>\n

__________________________________<\/p>\n

Vithal Rajan, Ph.D. [L.S.E.], worked as a mediator for the church in Belfast; as faculty at The School of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, and as Executive Director, the Right Livelihood Award Foundation. He has founded several Indian NGOs, is an Officer of the Order of Canada, and a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace, Development and Environment<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

After the death of Julius Caesar, the conqueror, Augustus, the first Emperor, concentrated all power in his hands ending Rome\u2019s democratic traditions. Tiberius corrupted the system further. Caligula took Rome deeper into cruelty and destruction. Nero\u2019s buffoonery signaled the long cynical decline of all social values till Rome ceased to be the centre of the Western world. A curious parallel exists today in the history of the American empire.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[40],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-82858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-transcend-members"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82858","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82858"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82858\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82858"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82858"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82858"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}