{"id":87588,"date":"2017-02-27T12:00:11","date_gmt":"2017-02-27T12:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=87588"},"modified":"2017-02-26T17:38:45","modified_gmt":"2017-02-26T17:38:45","slug":"eurasia-integration-a-three-speed-affair","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/02\/eurasia-integration-a-three-speed-affair\/","title":{"rendered":"Eurasia Integration: A Three-Speed Affair"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/a><\/p>\n

Europe, relatively integrated, lives today in a de facto two-speed reality. Eurasia integration, a work in progress and with vastly more reach, is for the moment a three-speed process, as seen through the positioning of three Central Asian \u201cstans\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n

25 Feb 2017 – <\/em>Away from\u00a0the hysterical 24\/7 news cycle, Turkmenistan quietly went to\u00a0the polls. President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov<\/a>, in\u00a0power for\u00a010 years now, amassed a positively North Korean 97.69% of\u00a0the vote among\u00a03.22 million registered citizens.<\/p>\n

Chances are Gurbanguly\u2019s name will never be correctly pronounced in\u00a0the Beltway, as Melissa \u2018Spicey\u201d McCarthy<\/a> hinted in\u00a0a by\u00a0now legendary TV sketch. No worries for\u00a0someone who had a gold statue of\u00a0himself erected in\u00a0Ashgabat and doubles as\u00a0a superstar<\/a> folk singer.<\/p>\n

Gurbanguly is guaranteed seven more years in\u00a0power thanks to\u00a0a constitutional reform approved last September. He\u2019s the former dentist of\u00a0the previous leader, the larger-than-life paramount eccentric Saparmurat Niyazov, who died of\u00a0a heart attack in\u00a0December 2006.<\/p>\n

The Central Asian \u201cstans\u201d configure the proverbial crossroad of\u00a0empires: China to\u00a0the east, Turkey to\u00a0the west, Russia to\u00a0the north, Afghanistan and India to\u00a0the south.<\/p>\n

Those were the days in\u00a0the late 19th century when London and St Petersburg fought The Great Game over\u00a0their vast territory. Those were also the days when after\u00a09\/11 Washington advanced The New Great Game via\u00a0its expanding Empire of\u00a0Bases and Dick \u201cDark Side\u201d Cheney sent mission after\u00a0mission to\u00a0probe eye-popping Caspian oil and gas deals.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Now the name of\u00a0the game is the slowly but\u00a0surely interpenetration and integration of\u00a0the China-led One Belt, One Road<\/a> (OBOR) and the Russia-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU) into\u00a0a Great Eurasian Emporium.<\/p>\n

And what\u2019s striking is that idiosyncratic, self-isolated Turkmenistan, the quintessential gas republic (world\u2019s fourth largest reserves) is not part of\u00a0the game.<\/p>\n

Worse; because of\u00a0indecipherable geoeconomic mismanagement, Ashgabat not only jeopardized relations with\u00a0its two top buyers of\u00a0natural gas \u2013 Iran and Russia \u2013 but\u00a0also failed to\u00a0strike a lucrative deal to\u00a0sell gas to\u00a0the willing and able European Union. Hence the uber-surrealist scenario of\u00a0a gas republic unable to\u00a0fully monetize its natural wealth \u2013 apart from\u00a0the Turkmenistan-China pipeline, the first to\u00a0bring Central Asian natural gas to\u00a0China.<\/p>\n

Pipelineistan<\/a> though is an ever-evolving box of\u00a0surprises. The possibility of\u00a0Turkmen gas hitting the West via\u00a0Iran still stands, considering a trans-Caspian pipeline to\u00a0Azerbaijan remains a certified geopolitical, logistical and financial nightmare.<\/p>\n

The best options would be either a Turkmenistan-Iran pipeline to\u00a0a LNG export terminal in\u00a0Oman, or another one connecting to\u00a0Turkey via\u00a0Iran and then linked with\u00a0the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline and the EU\u2019s Southern Gas Corridor.<\/p>\n

Brussels, obsessed with\u00a0European dependence on\u00a0Gazprom, is all for\u00a0it, as\u00a0that would also imply lower gas prices. Moscow, competing with\u00a0Ashgabat, is not exactly thrilled.<\/p>\n

A possible spanner in\u00a0the works would be \u2013 what else \u2013 Daesh. The ultimate Central Asian security nightmare revolves around\u00a0Daesh setting up\u00a0an alternative Caliphate in\u00a0the agricultural\/water oasis along\u00a0the Murghab river, the Karakum canal, and the Amu Darya river shared by\u00a0Turkmenistan with\u00a0Uzbekistan.<\/p>\n

Picture the possibility of\u00a0a Central Asian Caliphate with\u00a0close access to\u00a0unlimited supplies of\u00a0natural gas. No wonder the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) \u2013 snubbed, so far, by\u00a0Ashgabat \u2013 is already on\u00a0red alert.<\/p>\n

Putin does Tajikistan <\/strong><\/p>\n

Compare Turkmenistan\u2019s blue gold idiosyncrasies with\u00a0energy-deprived Tajikistan, which may be on\u00a0the verge of\u00a0becoming a full member of\u00a0the EEU, currently uniting Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan.<\/p>\n

President Putin will soon be on\u00a0a Central Asian tour of\u00a0Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. The proverbial cooperation in\u00a0trade, investment, energy, education and science will be on\u00a0the table.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the key Tajik issue: migrant labor. That has even spawned an aviation row, as\u00a0in how many Russian and Tajik airlines are allowed to\u00a0regularly fly in\u00a0and out.<\/p>\n

Tajikistan may be a large importer of\u00a0Russian goods and services. But most of\u00a0all Dushanbe exports its workforce. Remittances account for\u00a0half of\u00a0GDP, roughly $4 billion a year. According to\u00a0the Main Directorate for\u00a0Migration Affairs in\u00a0Moscow, there were almost 900,000 Tajik residents in\u00a0Russia late last year. Counting the black market, it\u2019s way more.<\/p>\n

So migration matters must be cleared should Tajikistan join the EEU. Popular support is high, at\u00a068 percent, according to\u00a0a recent poll by
\nthe Eurasian Development Bank.<\/p>\n

Have corridor, will travel\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

The star of\u00a0the Central Asian show remains, unquestionably, Kazakhstan<\/a>. Oil and gas paradise; loads of\u00a0uranium; heart of\u00a0Eurasia; a working, highly \u201cinvestable\u201d economy; and directly linked to\u00a0both OBOR and the EEU.<\/p>\n

The official geoeconomic policy reads like\u00a0Kazakhstan First, which implies Astana keeping indiscriminate good relations with\u00a0Moscow, Beijing and Washington.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Syria peace talks<\/a>, the ones that really matter, are taking place in Astana<\/a>. President Nursultan Nazarbayev is on\u00a0a roll. He was largely responsible for\u00a0the Erdogan-Putin d\u00e9tente last year, which culminated in\u00a0hosting the tentative Syria peace process and solidifying Astana\u2019s place as\u00a0a multicultural, multi-ethnic top geopolitical player. It does not hurt that Kazakhstan is now on\u00a0a two-year stint on\u00a0the UN Security Council.<\/p>\n

The spectacular coming-of-age in\u00a0the world stage is set for\u00a0this summer at\u00a0the EXPO-2017 international fair, running from\u00a0June to\u00a0September. The overall theme is Future Energy; clean energy, new construction materials and smart-grid technologies. That translates as\u00a0Astana cleverly positioning itself as\u00a0way more than\u00a0oil and gas.<\/p>\n

EXPO-2017 is costing around $3 billion, financed by\u00a0a public\/private mix. The site will be reconverted into the Astana International Financial Center<\/a>, an ambitious hub for\u00a0everyone from\u00a0Central Asia to\u00a0the \u201cCaucasus, West China, Mongolia and Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n

The US angle in\u00a0Kazakhstan may turn out\u00a0to be key during\u00a0the Trump administration. Exxon has been doing business in\u00a0Kazakhstan for\u00a0over 20 years now. Mostly it\u2019s all about\u00a0the exceedingly complicated and immensely expensive Kashagan field, north of\u00a0the Caspian close to\u00a0Atyrau \u2013 which only started exporting oil<\/a> late last year.<\/p>\n

US Secretary of\u00a0State T. Rex Tillerson has a previous history of\u00a0trying to\u00a0stall selling Exxon\u2019s stake in\u00a0state oil company KazMunayGas below\u00a0the price he wanted. In the end he gave in. But should oil prices rise, Exxon will inevitably be back in\u00a0Kashagan in\u00a0a flash.<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the Tengiz field, where Exxon, Chevron and (currently US-sanctioned) Lukoil agreed to\u00a0invest<\/a> a whopping $37 billion last year. They signed the original partnership before\u00a0the Obama administration sanctions.<\/p>\n

Unsurprisingly, a lot hinges on\u00a0sanctions being lifted. That would signal the green light for\u00a0renewed US-Russia Big Oil partnership. Exxon, strategically, has funded higher education programs at\u00a0the KIMEP<\/a> University in\u00a0Almaty as\u00a0well.<\/p>\n

China, also unsurprisingly, is already Kazakhstan\u2019s top investor. In this case, it\u2019s all about\u00a0OBOR, as\u00a0a detailed report<\/a> by\u00a0the European Council on\u00a0Foreign Relations on\u00a0the privileged \u201ctransport and gas hub of\u00a0Central Asia\u201d has stressed. 80% of\u00a0all foreign investment in\u00a0the Central Asian \u201cstans\u201d goes to\u00a0Kazakhstan.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The World Bank foresees GDP growth of\u00a04% by\u00a02019. Kazakhstan \u2013 alongside\u00a0Iran \u2013 features as\u00a0one of\u00a0China\u2019s prime trade corridors in\u00a0the Holy Grail of\u00a0a single-tariff Eurasia emporium. Kazakhstan\u2019s former Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov could not be more explicit<\/a>; the aim is to\u00a0become a \u201clogistics hub for\u00a0China and Eurasia\u201d.<\/p>\n

OBOR? EEU? Prime trade corridors? Eurasia integration? It don\u2019t mean a thing if it ain\u2019t got that Kazakh swing.<\/p>\n

____________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian independent geopolitical analyst. He is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. He has been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9\/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of \u201cGlobalistan<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cRed Zone Blues<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cObama does Globalistan<\/a>\u201d (2009) and \u201cEmpire of Chaos<\/a>\u201d (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is \u201c2030<\/a>\u201c, also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 sputniknews.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Europe, relatively integrated, lives today in a de facto two-speed reality. Eurasia integration, a work in progress and with vastly more reach, is for the moment a three-speed process, as seen through the positioning of three Central Asian \u201cstans\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-87588","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87588","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87588"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87588\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87588"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87588"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87588"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}