{"id":88909,"date":"2017-03-20T12:00:49","date_gmt":"2017-03-20T12:00:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=88909"},"modified":"2017-03-18T15:06:49","modified_gmt":"2017-03-18T15:06:49","slug":"the-birth-pangs-of-a-new-middle-east-remixed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/03\/the-birth-pangs-of-a-new-middle-east-remixed\/","title":{"rendered":"The ‘Birth Pangs’ of a New Middle East, Remixed"},"content":{"rendered":"

You all remember former US Secretary of State Condi Rice’s notorious 2006 prediction about “birth pangs of a New Middle East.” True to the George “Dubya” Bush\/Cheney regime, Condi got it all spectacularly wrong, not only about Lebanon and Israel but also Iraq, Syria and the House of Saud.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

\u00a9 Sputnik\/ Valery Melnikov<\/p><\/div>\n

17 Mar 2017 – <\/em>The Obama administration duly maintained a tradition that we could, light-heartedly, call The Sex Pistols School of\u00a0Foreign Policy (“no future for\u00a0you”<\/em>). That’s perfectly exemplified by\u00a0unflappable Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova in just a few sentences<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Zakharova points out\u00a0how Team Obama “didn’t have a consistent Syrian strategy in\u00a0entire eight years: one day we bomb it, the next day we don’t, one day we pull out\u00a0of Syria, the next day we go in.” That’s because “one branch of\u00a0government did not understand what the other branch was doing.” And in\u00a0the end “they just went ahead and dropped all Syrian politics without\u00a0seeing it to\u00a0its logical end. Then they focused on\u00a0Aleppo, but\u00a0not on\u00a0resolving this situation, but\u00a0solely on\u00a0building up\u00a0hysteria and an information campaign geared exclusively to\u00a0the elections.”<\/p>\n

And that leads us to\u00a0the adults in\u00a0the room in\u00a0the Trump era, the ones that are actually monitoring the birth pangs of\u00a0the real new Middle East: Russia.<\/p>\n

That Iranian base in\u00a0Latakia<\/strong><\/p>\n

Let’s start with\u00a0the recent visit by\u00a0Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu to\u00a0President Putin.<\/p>\n

Bibi hit Moscow<\/a> infused with\u00a0biblical wishful thinking, essentially trying to\u00a0seduce Putin to\u00a0ditch the strategic partnership with\u00a0Iran \u2013 complete with\u00a0joining the much advertised, US-led from\u00a0behind “Arab NATO” anti-Iran, anti-Shiite coalition featuring Israel coupled with\u00a0the GCC petrodollar racket plus minor associates (Jordan and Morocco).<\/p>\n

Bibi is desperate because Iran, with\u00a0facts on\u00a0the ground (Iranian and Hezbollah fighters) in\u00a0partnership with\u00a0Russian facts in\u00a0the air, is actually winning the Syria proxy war for\u00a0Damascus. And whatever happens next, post-Astana negotiations, Tehran will keep a permanent foothold in\u00a0Syria \u2013 much to\u00a0the ballistic outrage of\u00a0the NATO-GCC-Israel combo.<\/p>\n

A parallel implication is that Israel can’t attack southern Lebanon anymore. Last month, in\u00a0Tehran, I had the confirmation that Hezbollah has now up\u00a0to 40,000 fighters stationed and\/or monitoring a maze of\u00a0underground installations ready to\u00a0defend Lebanon from\u00a0everything; that’s up\u00a0to ten times more than\u00a0in 2006, an invasion that resulted in\u00a0a humiliating Israeli retreat.<\/p>\n

Ther’s nothing that Bibi could have offered Putin \u2013 apart from\u00a0a hazy, unsubstantiated promise to\u00a0order the powerful Israeli lobby in\u00a0D.C. to\u00a0soften hysterical, 24\/7 Russia demonization.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, reports emerged<\/a> that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad gave the green light for\u00a0an Iranian naval base in\u00a0Latakia, close to\u00a0the Hmeymim airbase used by\u00a0Russi’s Aerospace Forces. That came after\u00a0Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of\u00a0Iran’s General Staff, stressed that the Iranian Navy would soon need bases in\u00a0Syria and Yemen.<\/p>\n

Tehran sent mostly military advisers and instructors to\u00a0Syria but\u00a0the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also contributed with\u00a0hardcore soldiers.<\/p>\n

In Tehran, I had the pleasure of\u00a0meeting Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the top IRGC commander and a supreme tactician\/organizer specialized in\u00a0asymmetrical warfare, his vast experience acquired during\u00a0the Iran-Iraq war and Hezbollah success in\u00a0Lebanon in\u00a02006.<\/p>\n

That’s like\u00a0meeting Marine Corps. Gen Joseph Dunford, the head of\u00a0the US Joint Chiefs of\u00a0Staff \u2013 but\u00a0without the pomp and circumstance. A courteous, graceful man, Jafari did not have time to\u00a0get into\u00a0details, but\u00a0other sources confirmed that without\u00a0his battle-hardened knowledge Damascus by\u00a0now would have been in\u00a0big trouble.<\/p>\n

What Russia wants in\u00a0Syria<\/strong><\/p>\n

Then there’s an interview<\/a> by\u00a0Russian Deputy Minister of\u00a0Foreign Affairs Mikhail Bogdanov, former ambassador in\u00a0Tel Aviv and Cairo, and now also Putin’s special representative in\u00a0the Middle East, that has, metaphorically, parted the Red Sea all over\u00a0again.<\/p>\n

Bogdanov offered to\u00a0Arab audiences a concise guide to\u00a0Russia\u2019s Middle East policy \u2013 the absolute opposite\u00a0of loony US neocon regime change dementia.<\/p>\n

He compared the “tens of\u00a0thousands” of\u00a0foreign Salafi-jihadi mercenaries at\u00a0war with\u00a0Damascus to\u00a0the Russia-Iran military presence officially request by “the legitimate government.” He dismissed the warped notion of\u00a0Iran exporting the Islamic revolution (that applied to\u00a0the early 1980s). He stressed how Moscow wants some sort of\u00a0US-Iran entente cordiale \u2013 with (unlikely) the House of\u00a0Saud on\u00a0board. Negotiations could be held in\u00a0Moscow or elsewhere.<\/p>\n

The Kremlin, as\u00a0Bogdanov expressed it, wants a secular Syria, beyond\u00a0sectarianism, springing up\u00a0out of\u00a0free and fair elections supervised by\u00a0the UN. Predictably, his words barely masked Moscow’s exasperation with\u00a0Washington’s obsession in\u00a0keeping Tehran out\u00a0of Syrian peace negotiations. And he firmly dismissed the “moderate rebels,” whose only goal is “Assad must go” to\u00a0stand trial in\u00a0The Hague (“With this goal, the war can go on\u00a0forever”).<\/p>\n

And then, the clincher: “Russia wants to\u00a0abide by\u00a0international legitimacy. We are committed to\u00a0the principle of\u00a0non-interference in\u00a0the internal affairs of\u00a0any country, including non-interference in\u00a0our internal affairs. We respect the democratic process and not color revolutions.”<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Team Trump members might entertain the wishful thinking notion that Moscow will ditch Tehran \u2013 not only in\u00a0Syria but\u00a0in terms of\u00a0Eurasia integration. Not a chance. Yet tell that to\u00a0the House of\u00a0Saud.<\/p>\n

The House of\u00a0Saud spent fortunes investing in\u00a0Salafi-jihadi provoked regime change in\u00a0Syria and an unwinnable war on\u00a0Yemen conducted with\u00a0US weapons that has generated a massive famine. Moscow might be able, with\u00a0time, to\u00a0instill some geopolitical sense into\u00a0Riyadh. Once again, not a chance. Because the House of\u00a0Saud is now convinced their best ally is President Trump.<\/p>\n

Geopolitically cornered, unable to\u00a0shackle itself off\u00a0its trademark paranoia, the House of\u00a0Saud decided to\u00a0go on\u00a0the offensive, with\u00a0King Salman investing in\u00a0a lavish Asian tour, Beijing included, where he signed a rash of\u00a0deals<\/a>, and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman \u2013 actually The Warrior Prince, responsible for\u00a0the civilian tragedy in\u00a0Yemen \u2013 courting Trump in\u00a0Washington.<\/p>\n

The resulting spin now rules that Saudi Arabia will be an influential “close consultant” to\u00a0Trump on\u00a0Middle East security and economy, including the Palestinian tragedy and the Iran nuclear deal. No Dante circle of\u00a0hell could have provided a more perfect “birth pangs” recipe for\u00a0unmitigated disaster in\u00a0a new Middle East.<\/p>\n

All eyes on\u00a0the Syrian Kurds<\/strong><\/p>\n

Predictably, neither Moscow nor Tehran was invited for\u00a0the anti-Daesh meeting of\u00a068 nations hosted by\u00a0Washington next week. Yet another chapter of\u00a0hardcore information war; for\u00a0US public opinion, Russia and Iran simply cannot be allowed to\u00a0be perceived as\u00a0actually fighting \u2013 and winning\u00a0\u2014 a real war on\u00a0terror.<\/p>\n

Smash Daesh is a major Trump campaign promise. He won’t do it with\u00a0several hundred US Marines with\u00a0their sights on\u00a0Raqqa \u2013 by\u00a0the way, technically a minor invasion, because Damascus did not request their presence. So it’s back to\u00a0Plan A, a.k.a. the Syrian Kurds.<\/p>\n

First the top US commander in\u00a0the Middle East, General Joseph Votel, went to\u00a0Kobane to\u00a0pledge Pentagon support for\u00a0the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Then the Pentagon released its (revised) Trump-ordered strategy to\u00a0defeat Daesh, which boils down\u00a0to No Sleep Till Raqqa.<\/p>\n

That implies a brand new geopolitical alignment. Team Obama \u2013 especially the CIA and the State Department\u00a0\u2014 was hostage to\u00a0Turkey’s view of\u00a0the Syrian Kurds as “terrorists.” Not Trump. And not Bogdanov, by\u00a0the way: “Why Turkey agreed on\u00a0Iraqi Kurdistan, but\u00a0does not agree to\u00a0the Kurdistan in\u00a0Syria? I think that this is not their business. This is an Iraqi affair and Syrian affair. Syrian people and not the Russian or Turkish state should decide.”<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Pentagon is, to\u00a0put it mildly, fed up\u00a0with Ankara. For many reasons: from\u00a0the non-stop purges (which get rid of\u00a0strategically placed American assets) to\u00a0the Turkey-Russia rapprochement, inbuilt in\u00a0Erdogan’s threat to\u00a0pivot East for\u00a0good in\u00a0case Washington supports the Syrian Kurds and\/or does not extradite Fethullah Gulen, accused by\u00a0Erdogan of\u00a0being the mastermind of\u00a0the failed 2016 military coup against\u00a0him.<\/p>\n

So how about\u00a0the taste of\u00a0the new blueberry cheesecake in\u00a0town; Washington, Moscow and Tehran all allied behind\u00a0the Syrian Kurds.<\/p>\n

It’s complicated, of\u00a0course. In the Astana negotiations, Turkey, Russia and Iran are theoretically on\u00a0the same side. Yet Tehran backs some sort of\u00a0Kurdish autonomy in\u00a0Syria \u2013 an anathema for\u00a0Erdogan, for\u00a0whom the only acceptable Kurdish autonomy is for\u00a0his Barzani-controlled friends in\u00a0Iraqi Kurdistan.<\/p>\n

So it’s up\u00a0to Moscow to\u00a0strike a balancing act \u2013 trying to\u00a0explain to\u00a0Ankara that there’s no other way apart from\u00a0Syrian Kurd self-administration in\u00a0a future Syrian federal state. The concept is extremely ambitious; Moscow aims to\u00a0show East and West how the Syrian Kurds, as\u00a0a real non-Islamist, secular Syrian actor, are the perfect instrument to\u00a0fight Daesh and other forms of\u00a0Salafi-jihadism.<\/p>\n

No wonder Saudi Arabia is not impressed; fighting Daesh was never their priority. But what really matters is that Ankara is not convinced.<\/p>\n

Erdogan has his total focus on\u00a0the upcoming referendum that may turn him into\u00a0a sort of\u00a0Presidential Sultan. To win decisively he must court Turkish nationalism by\u00a0all means necessary. At the same time, geopolitically, he cannot go against\u00a0Russia\/Iran and Washington in\u00a0one go.<\/p>\n

Only a few weeks ago no one would have imagined the Syrian Kurds harboring potential strategic leverage capable of\u00a0turning Middle East geopolitics \u2013 linked to\u00a0Asia, Africa and Europe\u00a0\u2014 upside down. China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR)<\/a> \u2013 that building frenzy of\u00a0ports, pipelines, high-speed rail\u00a0\u2014 firmly targets the Southwest Asia passage, from\u00a0Iran (a key hub) to\u00a0Saudi Arabia (China’s top oil supplier). Syria is also a future OBOR hub \u2013 and for\u00a0that Syria must be peaceful and free of\u00a0Salafi-jihadis. In silent, discreet Eurasia integration fashion, China supports what Russia and Iran are deciding.<\/p>\n

By now it’s much clearer who’s configuring the birth pagans of\u00a0a new Middle East. It’s not Israel. It’s not the House of\u00a0Saud. And it’s not exactly Trump.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

_________________________________________<\/p>\n

Reflections on Six Years of Conflict in Syria<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0Small Victories, Grand Expectations: What’s Behind Erdogan’s Trip to Moscow<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/em>Syria Turns Into Regional Proxies’ Playground as Conflict Enters Seventh Year – Opposition<\/a><\/p>\n

Are Saudi Jihadis Entitled to a “Safe Zone”?<\/a><\/p>\n

Washington ‘Risks Getting Drawn Into Yet Another Ground War in Middle East’<\/a><\/p>\n

Eurasia Integration: A Three-Speed Affair<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian independent geopolitical analyst. He is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. He has been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9\/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of \u201cGlobalistan<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cRed Zone Blues<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cObama does Globalistan<\/a>\u201d (2009) and \u201cEmpire of Chaos<\/a>\u201d (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is \u201c2030<\/a>\u201c, also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 sputniknews.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You all remember former US Secretary of State Condi Rice’s notorious 2006 prediction about “birth pangs of a New Middle East.” True to the George “Dubya” Bush\/Cheney regime, Condi got it all spectacularly wrong. By now it’s much clearer who’s configuring the birth pagans of a new Middle East. It’s not Israel. It’s not the House of Saud. And it’s not exactly Trump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[66],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-88909","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-middle-east-north-africa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88909","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88909"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88909\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88909"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88909"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88909"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}