{"id":93596,"date":"2017-06-12T12:00:07","date_gmt":"2017-06-12T11:00:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=93596"},"modified":"2017-09-13T08:35:57","modified_gmt":"2017-09-13T07:35:57","slug":"humankind-2050-peace-development-environment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/06\/humankind-2050-peace-development-environment\/","title":{"rendered":"Humankind 2050 – Peace Development Environment"},"content":{"rendered":"

Keynote, World Futures Studies Federation Conference \u2013 Jondal, Norway 7 Jun 2017<\/em><\/p>\n

West of Jondal is Torsnes, named after the Nordic war god Thor with his Hammer, a center of the Viking era from 800 to 1050, only 250 years. Why so short? Successful with raids and colonization–Gardarike in Russia, Iceland, Greenland, Vineland in Canada. And then: fini<\/em>. Why?<\/p>\n

Because they had no future.\u00a0 Evil L\u00f3ki had killed Good Baldur–next to Torsnes is Belsnes=Baldursnes.\u00a0 They were doomed.\u00a0 Enters Christianity with Evil Satan and<\/u> Good God, restoring hope. The end.<\/p>\n

The Soviet Union Empire had no future: Communism was undefined. Enters Orthodox Christianity–Putin is a true believer–hope restored.<\/p>\n

The United States Empire has no future: “allies” refuse to fight US wars and US capitalism increases inequality with reduced growth. Enter Campaigner Trump \u2018Making America Great Again\u2019 by buying-hiring American; President Trump making America isolated, violent, unequal–an autistic, psychotic, narcissistic, paranoid in a psycho-pathological exceptionalist, us-them paranoid state.\u00a0 A perfect fit for the worst.<\/p>\n

2050 is only 33 years ahead; 33 years back is Orwell’s 1984. Much happened.\u00a0 The Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989; the Soviet Empire, Soviet Union and Communism followed. The US Empire declined, former clients refused to fight US wars, but not EU wars; eroding NATO.<\/p>\n

The Cold war, threatening humanity with a nuclear arms race that in a hot war could obliterate the planet, melted away with a whimper.<\/p>\n

China’s incredible growth, also in world presence, from the Deng Xiaoping revolution in 1980, has been mainly within that period.<\/p>\n

The attack on Muslim countries by a “US-led coalition” and the reaction by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State-Caliphate: in that period.<\/p>\n

All over the world regionalization, ELAC-Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, African Unity\/Union, EU, ASEAN; most states being too small, civilizations blocking for a world state.<\/p>\n

All over the world non-dominant nations asserting themselves.<\/p>\n

And all over the world, inspired from USA, women emancipating.<\/p>\n

A new world, in only 33 years of rapidly accelerating history with another new world in the next 33 years. Some forecasts, using Western identification of units-variables prolonging trends and Daoist identification of holons-dialectics, forces-counterforces, yin\/yang<\/em>; to catch both continuous change and the discontinuous, jumpy changes.<\/p>\n

Development<\/em><\/strong>, defined as satisfying basic human needs by lifting the bottom up; reduction of inequality can be achieved before 2050. The idea of food-water, clothing-housing, health-education for all has arrived and been well received (maybe not in the USA); one formula being the last two free, the first four subsidized with monthly cash to buy. Homo sapiens<\/em> being homo faber<\/em> and homo ludens<\/em>, productive and playful with lifelong support, not lifelong struggle for sheer survival.<\/p>\n

True, ground and river water are scarce but ocean water is not, obtainable by boiling with parabolic mirrors, capturing the vapor.<\/p>\n

Environment<\/em><\/strong>, defined as satisfying basic nature needs, diversity and symbiosis. Fighting CO2 omission, a bilateral relation for a very complex reality, is much too simplistic, fighting CFCs destroying the ozone layer and symbiosis, strengthening the diversity of biota and abiota beyond using only renewable resources make good sense.<\/p>\n

Individuals stop smoking if they attribute death from lung cancer to smoking.\u00a0 A catastrophe attributed to insulting nature’s needs may elicit remedial action from collectivities.\u00a0 Likely to happen, but better pro-actio than re-actio. A key: the darker the earth the more heating by solar energy; cities are darker than villages. Therefore, move out from big cities ruled by elites to small local units ruled by people.<\/p>\n

Peace<\/em><\/strong>, defined negatively as absence of parties being bad to each other, and positively as parties being good to each other–at the mega-macro-meso-micro levels–depends on ability to solve underlying conflicts and to concile underlying traumas–possibly increasing.<\/p>\n

Forecasts for twenty cases spanning the world and the levels:<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 The Peace versus Violence-War Dialectic to 2050: 20 Cases<\/em><\/h3>\n

Islam vs West<\/em>:<\/strong> counter-cyclical, Muslim togetherness-sharing expanding, Western loneliness-bureaucracy contracting; conversion to Islam and to West building togetherness-sharing. Islamic State and Caliphate based on imams cleanses Islam of the West reaching Mecca.<\/p>\n

NATO-USA vs SCO<\/em>:<\/strong> no world war, NATO dissolving, SCO not.<\/p>\n

West vs Russia<\/em>:<\/strong> no war, EU-Russia European House unifying.<\/p>\n

First World vs Third World, “North-South”<\/em>:<\/strong> the last will be the first; Africa and Latin America-Caribbean matching Europe and USA.<\/p>\n

West vs Eurasia-SCO, “West-East”:<\/em><\/strong> Eurasia penetrating and dominating West like China USA, not vice versa; dominion, not war.<\/p>\n

Israel vs Palestine-Arab States<\/em>:<\/strong> An Israel for Jews only will not survive; multi-national Israel as tolerant to Muslims-Arabs as they to Jews and Christians as People of the Book–with Jews all over, will.<\/p>\n

Japan-USA vs Russia-Two Chinas-Two Koreas over Islands<\/em>:<\/strong> violence-war likely unless shared ownership of islands and profits is adopted.<\/p>\n

China vs ASEAN in South China Sea<\/em>:<\/strong> war likely unless US aircraft carriers are withdrawn; sharing ownership, fisheries, and profits.<\/p>\n

North Korea vs USA<\/strong><\/em>:<\/strong> war likely unless peace treaty, normalization\u00a0 with North Korea and a nuclear-free Korean peninsula are practiced.<\/p>\n

USA<\/em>:<\/strong> one country among others but focused on Whom to blame, with anti-Semitism; new domestic-world politics and deep scripts coming.<\/p>\n

EU<\/em>:<\/strong> multi-speed with the euro as common, not single currency.<\/p>\n

SCO<\/em>:\u00a0<\/strong> will cover most of the Asian continent, blend with Eurasia.<\/p>\n

UK<\/em>:<\/strong> will split into Anglo-Saxon England, Celtic Wales, Scotland, Ireland, and the islands, in a Confederation of the British Isles.<\/p>\n

Russia<\/em>:<\/strong> compensating for “unequal treaties” with Chinese dynamic immigration, making Russia grow as part of Eurasia, with violence.<\/p>\n

China<\/em>:<\/strong> aging, will be overtaken by Africa like it overtook the mini\/China-Japan “dragons” that had overtaken Japan overtaking USA.<\/p>\n

States, except the biggest, yielding to regions-local authorities<\/em><\/strong>, with a United Regions; United Nations with no veto power leaving USA.<\/p>\n

Ability to handle fault-line conflicts inside societies<\/em>:<\/strong> use of human rights for equality across and democracy for shared decisions.<\/p>\n

Ability to handle conflicts between-inside persons<\/em>:<\/strong> so low that it will improve linking good with good, less violence linking bad-bad.<\/p>\n

Ability to handle conflict<\/em>:<\/strong> so low that it will improve. First step: seeing conflict as incompatible goals, as something to be solved.<\/p>\n

Ability to concile trauma<\/strong><\/em>:<\/strong> so low that it will improve. First step: sharing narratives of what happened, wishing the violence undone.<\/p>\n

_________________________________________<\/p>\n

Johan Galtung, a professor of peace studies, dr hc mult, is founder of <\/em>TRANSCEND International<\/a> and rector of <\/em>TRANSCEND Peace University<\/a>. Prof. Galtung has published more than 1500 articles\u00a0and book\u00a0chapters, over 470 Editorials for <\/em>TRANSCEND Media Service<\/a>, and more than 170 books on peace and related issues<\/em>, of which more than 40 have been translated to other languages, including <\/em>50 Years \u2013 <\/em>100 Peace and Conflict Perspectives<\/a> published by <\/em>TRANSCEND University Press<\/a>. More information about Prof. Galtung<\/a> and all of his publications<\/a> can be found at transcend.org\/galtung<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2050 is only 33 years ahead; 33 years back is Orwell’s 1984. Much happened. The Berlin Wall collapsed in 1989; the Soviet Empire, Soviet Union and Communism followed. The US Empire declined, former clients refused to fight US wars, but not EU wars; eroding NATO. The Cold war, threatening humanity with a nuclear arms race that in a hot war could obliterate the planet, melted away with a whimper.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[244,120,252,253,254,249,70],"class_list":["post-93596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-editorial","tag-china","tag-conflict","tag-future","tag-putin","tag-security","tag-trump","tag-usa"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93596","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93596"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93596\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93596"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93596"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93596"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}