{"id":94040,"date":"2017-06-19T12:00:54","date_gmt":"2017-06-19T11:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=94040"},"modified":"2017-06-18T18:04:58","modified_gmt":"2017-06-18T17:04:58","slug":"the-west-cant-smell-what-eurasia-is-cooking","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/06\/the-west-cant-smell-what-eurasia-is-cooking\/","title":{"rendered":"The West Can’t Smell What Eurasia is Cooking"},"content":{"rendered":"

A tectonic geopolitical shift happened in Astana, Kazakhstan, only a few days ago, and yet barely a ripple registered in Atlanticist circles.<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

\u00a9 Photo: pixabay<\/p><\/div>\n

16 Jun 2017 – <\/em>At the annual summit of\u00a0the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), founded in\u00a02001, both India and Pakistan were admitted as\u00a0full members, alongside\u00a0Russia, China and four Central Asian \u201cstans\u201d (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan).<\/p>\n

So now the SCO not only qualifies as\u00a0the largest political organization \u2013 by\u00a0area and population \u2013 in\u00a0the world; it also unites four nuclear powers. The G-7 is irrelevant, as\u00a0the latest summit in\u00a0Taormina made it clear. The real action now, apart from\u00a0the G-20, also lays in\u00a0this alternative G-8.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Permanently derided in\u00a0the West for\u00a0a decade and a half as\u00a0a mere talk shop, the SCO, slowly but\u00a0surely, keeps advancing a set up\u00a0that Chinese President Xi Jinping qualifies, in\u00a0a subdued manner, as \u201ca new type of\u00a0international relations featuring win-win cooperation.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s the least one can say when you have China, India and Pakistan in\u00a0the same group.<\/p>\n

The SCO\u2019s trademark, under\u00a0the radar game is quite subtle. The initial emphasis, as\u00a0we were entering the post-9\/11 world, was to\u00a0fight what the Chinese qualify as \u201cthe three evils\u201d of\u00a0terrorism, separatism and extremism. Beijing \u2013 and Moscow \u2013 from\u00a0the beginning were thinking about\u00a0the Taliban in\u00a0Afghanistan, and their Central Asian connections, especially via\u00a0the Islamic Movement of\u00a0Uzbekistan (IMU).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>

Credit: Sputnik\/Mihail Metzel\/POOL<\/p><\/div>\n

Now the SCO is actively warning about\u00a0the security \u201cdeterioration\u201d in\u00a0Afghanistan and calling for\u00a0all members to\u00a0support the \u201cpeace and reconciliation\u201d process. That\u2019s code for\u00a0the SCO from\u00a0now on\u00a0directly engaged in\u00a0finding an \u201call-Asian\u201d Afghan solution \u2013 with\u00a0both India and Pakistan on\u00a0board \u2013 that should transcend the failed Pentagon \u201cremedy\u201d; more troops.<\/p>\n

NATO, by\u00a0the way, miserably lost its war in\u00a0Afghanistan. The Taliban control at\u00a0least 60% of\u00a0the country \u2013 and counting. And adding supreme insult to\u00a0predictable injury, the Islamic State Khorasan (ISK) \u2013 Daesh\u2019s branch in\u00a0Afghanistan \u2013 has just captured Tora Bora, where way back in\u00a0late 2001 the Pentagon\u2019s B-52s were bombing already-escaped Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Make no mistake; there will be SCO action in\u00a0Afghanistan. And that will include bringing the Taliban to\u00a0the negotiating table. China has taken over\u00a0the rotating presidency of\u00a0the SCO and will be keen to\u00a0show practical results in\u00a0the next summit in\u00a0June 2018.<\/p>\n

Step on\u00a0the gas, pay in\u00a0yuan<\/p>\n

The SCO has also steadily evolved in\u00a0terms of\u00a0economic cooperation. Last year Gu Xueming, head of\u00a0the Chinese Academy of\u00a0International Trade and Economic Cooperation at\u00a0the Ministry of\u00a0Commerce, proposed a SCO economic think tank alliance, also tasked to\u00a0study the set up\u00a0of SCO free trade zones.<\/p>\n

This spells out\u00a0further economic integration \u2013 already ongoing for\u00a0scores of\u00a0small-and medium-sized businesses. The trend is inevitable, in\u00a0parallel to\u00a0the interpenetration of\u00a0the New Silk Roads, a.k.a. Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union (EEU).<\/p>\n

So no wonder at\u00a0their bilateral meeting in\u00a0Astana, Xi and President Putin once again exhorted the merging of\u00a0BRI and EEU. And we\u2019re not talking only about\u00a0the BRI, EEU and SCO trio; that also concerns the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the BRICS\u2019s New Development Bank (NDB), the Chinese Silk Road Fund\u00a0\u2014 a full array of\u00a0politico-economic mechanisms.<\/p>\n

Things are moving incredibly fast \u2013 on\u00a0all fronts. At a recent \u201cFuture of\u00a0Asia\u201d conference in\u00a0Tokyo, the supposedly rabid anti-Chinese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced, although subject to\u00a0many conditions, that Japan is ready to\u00a0cooperate with\u00a0BRI, with\u00a0its \u201cpotential to\u00a0connect East and West as\u00a0well as\u00a0the diverse regions found in\u00a0between.\u201d\u00a0 A possible China-Japan reset would add the definitive momentum to\u00a0the BRI, EEU and SCO interpenetration.<\/p>\n

Crucially, both China<\/a> and\u00a0Russia<\/a> are also on\u00a0the same page in\u00a0terms of\u00a0fast-tracking Iran\u2019s admission as\u00a0a full SCO member.<\/p>\n

Now compare it with\u00a0US Secretary of\u00a0State \u201cT.Rex\u201d Tillerson calling for regime change in\u00a0Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n

As Eurasia integration inexorably moves in\u00a0leaps and bounds, the contrast with\u00a0the proverbially swampy Atlanticist arrogance could not be more glaring.<\/p>\n

When Moscow decided its game-changing intervention in\u00a0the Syria tragedy, no analyst in\u00a0the West apart from\u00a0Alastair Crooke identified how that was configuring a sort of\u00a0SCO-style operation; true, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah are not part of\u00a0the SCO, but\u00a0the way they coordinated with\u00a0Russia spelled out\u00a0a feasible alternative to\u00a0unilateral NATO humanitarian imperialism and regime change-style adventures.<\/p>\n

The \u201c4+1\u201d mechanism \u2013 Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah \u2013 quietly backed by\u00a0China, was set up\u00a0to fight all forms of\u00a0Salafi-jihadi terrorism and at\u00a0the same time to\u00a0prevent regime change in\u00a0Damascus, a NATO-GCC wet dream.<\/p>\n

Now with\u00a0shambolic Trump foreign policy hardly coordinating any policy at\u00a0all apart from\u00a0harassing Iran, both Russia and China understand how Iranian membership of\u00a0the SCO should be key.<\/p>\n

Beijing already understood the ultra high stakes ramifications via\u00a0its relationship with\u00a0Qatar \u2013 a key natural gas provider sooner or later to\u00a0accept payment<\/a> for\u00a0energy in\u00a0yuan.<\/p>\n

Qatar\u2019s quiet pivot towards\u00a0Iran \u2013 the key reason that drove the cornered House of\u00a0Saud absolutely bonkers \u2013 revolves around\u00a0the common exploitation of\u00a0the largest gas field in\u00a0the world, North Dome\/South Pars, which they share in\u00a0the Persian Gulf.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It took a while for\u00a0Doha to\u00a0realize that after\u00a0the \u201c4+1\u201d established facts on\u00a0the ground a gas pipeline from\u00a0Qatar to\u00a0Turkey via\u00a0Saudi Arabia and Syria for\u00a0the European market will never happen. Ankara also knows it. But there might eventually be an Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline \u2013 even with\u00a0a possible extension to\u00a0Turkey\u00a0\u2014 with\u00a0gas jointly provided by\u00a0North Dome\/South Pars.<\/p>\n

That would revolutionize the entire energy equation in\u00a0Southwest Asia; and a key casualty might be petrodollar hegemony, to\u00a0which Saudi Arabia and the UAE duly abide.<\/p>\n

Imagine Qatar\/Iran selling their future Europe-bound gas in\u00a0euros, not in\u00a0US dollars, just like\u00a0the Chinese will adamantly move to\u00a0pay Qatar \u2013 and Saudi Arabia \u2013 in\u00a0yuan for\u00a0their energy supplies.<\/p>\n

Make no mistake; the \u2013 inexorable \u2013 future spells out\u00a0trading energy not in\u00a0petrodollars but\u00a0in yuan, which is convertible to gold<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Long live the new Caliphate<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s never enough to\u00a0stress the importance of\u00a0the Russia-China strategic partnership coordinating all their policies regarding Eurasia integration, including efforts by\u00a0the usual suspects to\u00a0thwart it.<\/p>\n

During the first part of\u00a02017, Moscow and Beijing\u2019s working hypothesis was that the Trump administration was keen to\u00a0engage Russia as\u00a0a partner for\u00a0new oil and gas projects in\u00a0Eurasia. In a Kissingerian vein<\/a>, suggested to\u00a0Trump, the Russia-China strategic partnership would be weakened while Washington would increase pressure on\u00a0Beijing in\u00a0multiple fronts.<\/p>\n

Well, that may not happen anytime soon \u2013 considering the pervasive, demented anti-Russia hysteria consuming the Beltway.<\/p>\n

What does remain in\u00a0place is the GWOT (global war on\u00a0terror) corollary of\u00a0Trump\u2019s policy; to\u00a0rollback \u2013 by\u00a0all means necessary \u2013 increasing Iranian influence all across\u00a0Southwest Asia. And that implies boosting the geopolitical power of\u00a0the GCC \u2013 led by\u00a0the noxious House of\u00a0Saud.<\/p>\n

That would explain Trump\u2019s enthusiastic twitter boost of\u00a0the House of\u00a0Saud\u2019s anti-Qatar blitzkrieg \u2013 which doubles as\u00a0a move against\u00a0Iran. Beijing for\u00a0its part is watching closely, and has identified it for\u00a0what it is; an attempt to disturb<\/a> the progress of\u00a0the New Silk Roads.\u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

At the same time, Beijing and Moscow cannot help being amused by\u00a0the glaring inconsistencies. The Pentagon does not seem inclined to\u00a0annex the rest of\u00a0Qatar; the Al Udeid air base and the HQ of\u00a0Centcom are enough. Pentagon head \u201cMad Dog\u201d Mattis was more than\u00a0pleased to\u00a0sell $12 billion in\u00a0F-15s to \u201csupporter of\u00a0terrorism\u201d Doha. Trump \u201csupports\u201d the House of\u00a0Saud. Mattis \u201csupports\u201d Doha. Tillerson declines to\u00a0take sides.<\/p>\n

The GCC as\u00a0we know it may be dead and buried \u2013 as\u00a0well as\u00a0the embryonic Arab NATO feted by\u00a0Trump with\u00a0that pathetic sword dance<\/a> in\u00a0Riyadh. And yet Moscow and Beijing \u2013 as\u00a0well as\u00a0Tehran \u2013 are fully aware how these setbacks will only exacerbate the Exceptionalistan environment, a.k.a. the swamp, a.k.a. the deep state, to\u00a0double down, and continue to\u00a0provoke havoc.<\/p>\n

The Caliphate in\u00a0the \u201cSyraq\u201d desert is now dead \u2013 especially if Russia confirms the Caliph himself has gone<\/a> to\u00a0meet his maker. Too bad \u2013 because a totally destabilized Syria would be perfect to\u00a0destabilize Russia from\u00a0the Caucasus to\u00a0Central Asia; Russian intelligence has always been focused on\u00a0those 900 km from\u00a0Aleppo to\u00a0Grozny.<\/p>\n

Like Terminator, the US deep state will be back. An expanded wet dream remains to\u00a0create the conditions for\u00a0the destabilization of\u00a0a vast stretch from\u00a0the Levant to\u00a0South Asia\u00a0\u2014 with\u00a0possible future terror waves expanding north to\u00a0Russia and east to\u00a0China. The target: the interpenetration of\u00a0BRI, EEU and the SCO.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

To compound it, the Pentagon will refuse to\u00a0abandon Afghanistan \u2013 a bridgehead to\u00a0wreaking havoc in\u00a0Central Asia. What could possibly go wrong? After all, Daesh is now virtually positioned in\u00a0Central Asia, not far from\u00a0Xinjiang and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) \u2013 a key node of\u00a0BRI.<\/p>\n

Still, the Saudi anti-Qatar blitzkrieg \u2013 as\u00a0much as\u00a0it\u2019s already unraveling \u2013 may in\u00a0the medium term precipitate a monumental seismic shift, accelerating Iran\u2019s as\u00a0well as\u00a0Turkey\u2019s entry into\u00a0the SCO; consolidating Doha\u2019s pivot towards\u00a0an entente with\u00a0both Russia and Iran; and anticipating a serious blow to\u00a0petrodollar hegemony. All this must have been discussed in\u00a0detail in\u00a0Astana at\u00a0the SCO summit \u2013 mostly at\u00a0the Putin-Xi bilateral.<\/p>\n

As Exceptionalistan grows increasingly erratic, all key strategic decisions ahead rest with\u00a0Xi-Putin \u2013 and they know it. What\u2019s certain is that the SCO is bound to\u00a0get involved deeper and deeper in\u00a0protecting the key project of\u00a0the young 21st century; Eurasia integration.<\/p>\n

____________________________________________<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian independent geopolitical analyst. He is a frequent contributor to websites and radio and TV shows ranging from the US to East Asia. He is the former roving correspondent for Asia Times Online. He has been a foreign correspondent since 1985, and has lived in London, Paris, Milan, Los Angeles, Washington, Bangkok and Hong Kong. Even before 9\/11 he specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central and East Asia, with an emphasis on Big Power geopolitics and energy wars. He is the author of \u201cGlobalistan<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cRed Zone Blues<\/a>\u201d (2007), \u201cObama does Globalistan<\/a>\u201d (2009) and \u201cEmpire of Chaos<\/a>\u201d (2014), all published by Nimble Books. His latest book is \u201c2030<\/a>\u201c, also by Nimble Books, out in December 2015.<\/em><\/p>\n

Go to Original \u2013 sputniknews.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A tectonic geopolitical shift happened in Astana, Kazakhstan, only a few days ago, and yet barely a ripple registered in Atlanticist circles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-94040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94040","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94040"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94040\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94040"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94040"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94040"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}