{"id":94062,"date":"2017-06-19T12:00:55","date_gmt":"2017-06-19T11:00:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=94062"},"modified":"2017-06-18T14:25:07","modified_gmt":"2017-06-18T13:25:07","slug":"donald-trump-is-making-europe-liberal-again","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/06\/donald-trump-is-making-europe-liberal-again\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump Is Making Europe Liberal Again"},"content":{"rendered":"

14 Jun 2017 – <\/em>On Dec. 4 last year, less than a month after Donald Trump had defeated Hillary Clinton, Austria held a revote in its presidential election, which pitted Alexander Van der Bellen, a liberal who had the backing of the Green Party, against Norbert Hofer of the right-wing Freedom Party. In May 2016, Van der Bellen had defeated Hofer by just more than 30,000 votes \u2014 receiving 50.3 percent of the vote to Hofer\u2019s 49.7 percent \u2014 but the results had been annulled<\/a> and a new election had been declared. Hofer had to like his chances: Polls showed a close race<\/a>, but with him ever so slightly ahead in the polling average. Hofer cited Trump as an inspiration<\/a> and said that he, like Trump, could overcome headwinds from the political establishment.<\/p>\n

So what happened? Van der Bellen won by nearly 8 percentage points<\/a>. Not only did Hofer receive a smaller share of the vote than in May, but he also had fewer votes despite a higher turnout. Something had caused Austrians to change their minds and decide that Hofer\u2019s brand of populism wasn\u2019t such a good idea after all.<\/p>\n

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Left: Far-right candidate Norbert Hofer. Right: Independent presidential candidate Alexander van der Bellen.
Georg Hochmuth\/AFP\/Getty Images; Alex Domanski\/Getty Images<\/p><\/div>\n

The result didn\u2019t get that much attention in the news outlets I follow, perhaps because it went against the emerging narrative<\/a> that right-wing populism was on the upswing. But the May and December elections in Austria made for an interesting controlled experiment. The same two candidates were on the ballot, but in the intervening period Trump had won the American election and the United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union. If the populist tide were rising, Hofer should have been able to overcome his tiny deficit with Van der Bellen and win. Instead, he backslid. It struck me as a potential sign that Trump\u2019s election could represent the crest of the populist movement, rather than the beginning of a nationalist wave:<\/p>\n

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Wonder if Trump could hurt right-wing nationalist movements in Europe. People may associate movements with Trump. Trump way unpopular in EU.<\/p>\n

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) December 4, 2016<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n