{"id":95694,"date":"2017-07-24T12:00:54","date_gmt":"2017-07-24T11:00:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/?p=95694"},"modified":"2017-07-20T12:44:04","modified_gmt":"2017-07-20T11:44:04","slug":"the-logic-in-north-korean-madness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/2017\/07\/the-logic-in-north-korean-madness\/","title":{"rendered":"The Logic in North Korean \u2018Madness\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><em>North Korea\u2019s nuclear deterrent is a logical \u2013 not crazy \u2013 reaction to U.S. \u201cregime change\u201d wars in Iraq and Libya, two countries attacked after they surrendered their WMD stockpiles.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><em>17 Jul 2017 &#8211; <\/em>Despite the rhetoric from the Trump administration about military confrontation with North Korea, the common theme of many U.S. experts on North Korea is that the U.S. presidential administration must conduct a dialogue with North Korea \u2014 and quickly.\u00a0Military confrontation is not an option, according to the experts.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_95695\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-1-300x226-north-korea.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-95695\" class=\"size-full wp-image-95695\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/Kim-Jong-un-1-300x226-north-korea.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"226\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-95695\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>And most importantly, the new President of South Korea Moon Jae-in was elected in May 2017 on a pledge to engage in talks with North Korea and pursue diplomacy to finally officially end the Korean conflict. Nearly 80 percent of South Koreans <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/english.yonhapnews.co.kr\/search1\/2603000000.html?cid=AEN20170622008900315\" >support a resumption of long-suspended inter-Korean dialogue<\/a>, according to a survey by a presidential advisory panel showed in late June.<\/p>\n<p>On June 28, 2017, six former high-level experienced U.S. government officials from both Republican and Democratic administrations over the past 30 years sent <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.icasinc.org\/2017\/2017l\/2017lrlg.html\" >a letter<\/a> to President Trump stating that \u201cKim Jong Un is not irrational and highly values preserving his regime. \u2026 Talking is not a reward or a concession to Pyongyang and should not be construed as signaling acceptance of a nuclear-armed North Korea. It is a necessary step to establishing communication to avoid a nuclear catastrophe. The key danger today is not that North Korea would launch a surprise nuclear attack. Instead the primary danger is a miscalculation or mistake that could lead to war.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The experts:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>William J. Perry, 19th U.S. Secretary of Defense under the Clinton administration,<\/li>\n<li>George P. Shultz, 60th Secretary of State\u00a0under the Reagan administration and now Distinguished Fellow, Hoover institution, Stanford University,<\/li>\n<li>Former Gov. Bill Richardson, U.S. Secretary of Energy and U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations under the Clinton administration,<\/li>\n<li>Robert L. Gallucci, former negotiator in the Clinton administration and now with Georgetown University,<\/li>\n<li>Sigfrid S. Hecker, nuclear weapons expert and the last U.S. official to visit the North Korea nuclear facilities and now with the\u00a0Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University,<\/li>\n<li>Retired U.S. Sen. Richard G. Lugar, R-Indiana, now President of the Lugar Center,<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>They wrote: \u201cthere are no good military options, and a North Korean response to a US attack would devastate South Korea and Japan. Tightening sanctions can be useful in increasing pressure on North Korea, but sanctions alone will not solve the problem. Pyongyang has shown that it can make progress on missile and nuclear technology despite its isolation. Without a diplomatic effort to stop its progress, there is little doubt that it will develop a long-range missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead to the United States.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The experts ended their letter to President Trump calling for quick action: \u201cToday there is a window of opportunity to stop these programs, and it may be the last chance before North Korea acquires long-range capability. Time is not on our side. We urge you to put diplomacy at the top of the list of options on the table.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Off Ramps to War<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Two weeks earlier, on June 13, former Secretary of Defense William Perry and University of Chicago Korean War historian Bruce Cumings both strongly <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/pisa.elliott.gwu.edu\/ramps-war-paths-building-peace-north-korea\" >advocated<\/a> for dialogue with North Korea at the Korean Peace Network\u2019s conference \u201cOff Ramps to War\u201d at the Partnerships for International Strategies in Asia, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University in Washington, DC.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cNorth Korean leadership may be ruthless and reckless, but they are not crazy,\u201d Perry said, adding, \u201cWhy do we have a double standard for North Korea? We accept Saudi Arabia as it is with its human rights violations, but we do not accept North Korea as it is \u2013 a nuclear power.\u00a0Refusing to listen to the North Koreans about their goals and needs has meant that in the seventeen years since the last relevant dialogue, the North Koreans have developed and tested nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>President George W. Bush\u2019s naming North Korea as part of the \u201cAxis of Evil\u201d in January 2002 and the Obama administration\u2019s \u201cStrategic Patience\u201d policy were not forms of diplomacy, but instead were \u201cmiserable policy failures,\u201d according to Perry, who noted that the lack of a U.S. negotiating strategy has allowed North Korea to do what the U.S. and other major powers do not want it to do \u2014 test nuclear weapons and missiles.<\/p>\n<p>Perry said that the North Korean government has three goals: staying in power; gaining international respect; and improving the economy. Perry emphasized that the North Korean government will sacrifice the last two goals \u2014 gaining international respect and improving the economy \u2014 to achieve the first goal of staying in power.<\/p>\n<p>Because of the lack of listening to and acknowledging North Korean objectives on what its goals are \u2014 which include signing a peace treaty to take the place of the 50-plus-year armistice, signing a non-aggression pact, and reducing U.S.-South Korean military war games \u2014 Perry believes that the best outcome available to negotiators is to freeze the nuclear weapons and the ICBM programs, not their elimination.<\/p>\n<p>Perry said he believes North Koreans would never use nuclear weapons as those weapons \u201care valuable only if they DON\u2019T use them.\u00a0They know the response from the U.S. would be devastating, should North Korea explode a nuclear weapon.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Bruce Cumings, Korean War historian, author of <em>The Korean War: A History<\/em> and University of Chicago history professor, said at the symposium that the Clinton administration achieved very important goals with North Korea, including \u201cNorth Korea freezing its plutonium production for eight years (1994\u20132002) and, in October 2000, indirectly working out a deal to buy all of North Korea\u2019s medium and long-range missiles \u2014 and signing an agreement with North Korean General Jo Myong-rok in a meeting in the White House stating that neither country would bear \u2018hostile intent\u2019 toward the other.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Neocon Truculence <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>But the George W. Bush administration \u2014 led by Vice President Dick Cheney, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and Undersecretary of State John Bolton \u2014 \u201cactively sought to torpedo the Agreed Framework\u201d and succeeded in pushing aside the agreements negotiated by the Clinton administration thereby destroying the 1994 freeze and refusing to acknowledge the Clinton-Jo pledge of \u201cno hostile intent,\u201d particularly since the pledge was made by allowing a North Korean general inside the White House.<\/p>\n<p>With President Bush\u2019s January 2002 State of the Union speech, in which he linked North Korea to Iran and Iraq as an \u201caxis of evil,\u201d the Bush administration turned its back on North Korea, abrogating the \u201cAgreed Framework\u201d and halting shipments of American fuel-oil permanently.\u00a0In response, the North Koreans withdrew from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and restarted their plutonium-producing reactor.<\/p>\n<p>Historian Cumings <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/this-is-whats-really-behind-north-koreas-nuclear-provocations\/\" >wrote<\/a>, \u201cThe simple fact is that Pyongyang would have no nuclear weapons if Clinton\u2019s agreements had been sustained.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Sheldon Richman, executive editor of <u>The Libertarian Institute<\/u> and the former senior editor at the Cato Institute, agreed with Perry that North Korean leader Kim Jung Un is not crazy.\u00a0Richman <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/original.antiwar.com\/srichman\/2017\/04\/28\/talk-to-dont-provoke-north-korea\/\" >wrote<\/a>,\u00a0\u201cLet us dispense, once and for all, with the idea that Kim is a madman. Brutality is not madness, and a madman wouldn\u2019t be expected to capitulate to economic pressure. He shows every sign of wanting his regime to endure, which means he would not want the US military or nuclear arsenal to pulverize it. Assuming rationality in this context asserts only that Kim\u2019s means are reasonably related to his ends.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Richman underscored the rationale for the North Korean government to develop nuclear weapons against the will of the U.S. \u201cKim shows every sign of having learned the lesson of recent US regime-change policies toward Iraq and Libya, neither of which were nuclear states. Same with Syria, whose regime has been targeted by the U.S. government. The lesson is: if you want to deter a U.S. attack, get yourself some nukes.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Robert E. Kelly, Associate Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com\/2017\/06\/14\/theres-a-lot-of-north-korean-alarmism\/\" >wrote<\/a>, \u201cThis is not a suicidal, ideological, ISIS-like state bent on apocalyptic war but rather a post-ideological gangter-ish dictatorship looking to survive. The best way to guarantee the North\u2019s survival is nuclear deterrence. \u2026 It is a rational decision, given Pyongyang\u2019s goals to, 1) not change internally, and 2) not be attacked externally.\u00a0This is not ideal of course. Best would be a de-nuclearized North Korea. But this is highly unlikely at this point.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Backchannel Contacts<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Track 2 Diplomacy with North Korea continues Japan\u2019s Asahi Shimbun newspaper <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/english.hani.co.kr\/arti\/english_edition\/e_northkorea\/800276.html\" >reported<\/a> recently that Robert Gallucci and Leon Sigal, director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council, held nuclear and missile discussions in October 2016 with North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Han Song-ryol in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The North Korean envoy said North Korea had relayed its desire to negotiate directly with the U.S without involving China, to whom 90 percent of its exports go.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_95696\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/North-Korean-missile.jpg\" ><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-95696\" class=\"size-full wp-image-95696\" src=\"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/North-Korean-missile.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"169\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-95696\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">North Korean missile launch on March 6, 2017.<\/p><\/div>\n<p>Another Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun wrote that North Korea originally demanded Washington send to North Korea a former U.S. President as a special envoy to resolve the case of Otto Warmbier, an American student who recently died after detention in North Korea.<\/p>\n<p>According to the newspaper, Choe Son-hui, head of the North Korean Foreign Ministry\u2019s U.S. affairs bureau, notified the U.S. through its United Nations mission in May 2017.\u00a0But North Korea released Warmbier in a coma after Trump refused to send a former President and sent Joseph Yun, State Department Special Representative for North Korea Policy to North Korea instead.<\/p>\n<p>Another Track 2 group met with a North Korean delegation in early June 2017. Sue Mi Terry, a Korea expert who has worked at both the CIA and the National Security Council and now is with the Bower Group Asia <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/2017\/06\/28\/534764954\/u-s-looks-to-revive-talks-on-north-koreas-nuclear-program\" >spoke<\/a> on June 28 to National Public Radio about meeting with North Korea officials to try to get nuclear talks back on track.<\/p>\n<p>Terry said that to North Koreans, their nuclear arsenal \u201cis a matter of survival. North Koreans have told us even in the recent meeting \u2013 and they\u2019ve specifically brought up Libya \u2013 Gaddafi\u2019s case in Libya and Iraq \u2013 and said this is \u2013 nuclear weapons is the only way for us to absolutely guarantee our survival, and this is why we\u2019re not going to give it up. We\u2019re so close to perfecting this nuclear arsenal. This is our final deterrent against the United States. Ultimately it\u2019s about regime survival for them, and nuclear weapons guarantees it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Terry said the North Koreans demand that the United States accept them as a nuclear power and there is \u00a0\u201cabsolutely no flexibility or willingness to meet to talk about ending their nuclear program.\u201d In contrast to other experts, Terry believes it is \u201cunrealistic for us (the U.S.)\u00a0to go from where we are to talk about peace treaty and discuss formally ending the Korean War.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>She believes the solution is \u201ccontinuing with maximum pressure with sanctions and trying to get China to do more. And if China does not come through, then we\u2019ll have to pursue secondary sanctions against Chinese banks and entities and see if that can get China to rein in North Korea a little bit more.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>_________________________________________<\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 30px;\"><em>Ann Wright served 29 years in the U.S. Army\/Army Reserves and retired as a Colonel.\u00a0 She was a U.S. diplomat for 16 years and served in U.S. Embassies in Nicaragua, Grenada, Somalia, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Sierra Leone, Micronesia, Afghanistan and Mongolia.\u00a0 She resigned from the U.S. government in March 2003 in opposition to Bush\u2019s war on Iraq.\u00a0 She is the co-author of <\/em>Dissent: Voices of Conscience.<\/p>\n<p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/consortiumnews.com\/2017\/07\/17\/the-logic-in-north-korean-madness\/\" >Go to Original \u2013 consortiumnews.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>North Korea\u2019s nuclear deterrent is a logical \u2013 not crazy \u2013 reaction to U.S. \u201cregime change\u201d wars in Iraq and Libya, two countries attacked after they surrendered their WMD stockpiles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[56],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-95694","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-asia-pacific"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95694","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95694"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95694\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95694"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95694"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.transcend.org\/tms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95694"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}