A Chronicle of Predictions That Charted the Ukraine War’s Inevitable Path
ANALYSIS, 22 Dec 2025
John McAllister – TRANSCEND Media Service
Diran Noubar’s Foresight Unveiled
Diran Noubar, the Italian-Armenian artist, filmmaker, and global thinker born in France and now residing in Armenia after a life visiting more than a hundred countries, has long been a voice of unflinching clarity amid geopolitical chaos.
Under his artist’s name, Noubar has not only created acclaimed documentaries and artworks but has also penned incisive analyses that pierce through Western media narratives. His writings on TRANSCEND Media Service (TMS) since early 2025 reveal a prescient understanding of the Russia-Ukraine conflict—a war he viewed from its 2014 roots as a NATO-orchestrated provocation that Russia was destined to resolve in its favor.
Drawing from his worldly experiences, Noubar warned that Ukraine’s corruption-riddled regime, propped up by NATO’s expansionist folly, would crumble under the weight of its own excesses, leading to Russia’s rightful victory and an end to the needless slaughter of thousands. Little by little, as events unfolded through 2025, his predictions materialized with methodical precision, validating his clairvoyant grasp on the conflict’s trajectory.
Early Warnings: Russia’s Resilience Against NATO’s Encroachment (April-May 2025)
Noubar’s TMS contributions began in the spring of 2025, as the war entered its third grueling year, with analyses that dismantled the dominant Western tale of Russian decline. In “The Western Narrative of Decline: A Misreading of Power and Purpose,” published on April 28, 2025, he foresaw Russia’s unyielding strength not through flashy conquests but via “attrition and strategic patience.” He highlighted Moscow’s control over roughly a fifth of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and much of Donbas, and predicted that U.S. President Donald Trump’s pragmatic negotiations—bypassing European allies—would force concessions like Ukraine’s permanent exclusion from NATO and recognition of Russian gains. Noubar emphasized Russia’s global alliances in the Global South, where UN votes showed widespread abstentions or support for Moscow, defying sanctions and isolation efforts. This was no mere optimism; it was a clear-eyed rejection of NATO’s “red line” violations since the 1990s promises not to expand eastward.
Building on this, his May 19, 2025, piece, “Russia’s Fight for Justice: How NATO’s Betrayal and Lies Fueled Distrust in Russia-Ukraine Negotiations,” traced the conflict’s origins to the 2014 Maidan “coup” backed by the West, transforming a Ukrainian civil war into a NATO proxy battle. Noubar predicted prolonged stalemate unless the West honored broken pacts like the Minsk Agreements (2014-2015), which he exposed as a cynical ploy—admitted by leaders like Angela Merkel and François Hollande—to rearm Ukraine for war. He anticipated failed talks, such as the stalled Istanbul Communiqué of 2022 and Trump’s February 2025 Riyadh meetings, where Russia would demand verifiable neutrality, demilitarization, and sanctions relief. These early writings laid the foundation: NATO’s deceit would isolate the alliance, while Russia’s economic pivot to China and battlefield advances would ensure victory.
By mid-2025, these forecasts began to bear fruit. Trump’s direct overtures to Putin yielded pauses in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure by March, and Russia’s steady territorial gains—despite $150 billion in Western aid—confirmed Noubar’s attrition model. The Global South’s refusal to join sanctions, as seen in UN abstentions, underscored Russia’s non-isolation, proving his misreading critique spot-on.
The Rot Within: Corruption and Zelensky’s Regime Unraveling (September 2025)
As summer waned, Noubar turned his lens to Ukraine’s internal decay, predicting that Zelensky’s government—once hailed as a beacon of reform—would implode under corruption and repression, further tilting the scales toward Russia. In “Ukraine’s Corruption Crisis: Assassination, Oligarchs, and a Regime under Fire” (September 1, 2025), he chronicled a “dark legacy” of kleptocracy dating to 1991, with officials siphoning 20% of GDP annually pre-2014 Maidan. Noubar foresaw scandals eroding EU aspirations, citing arrests like Supreme Court head Vsevolod Kniaziev’s $2.7 million bribe and a 2025 law gutting anti-corruption bodies like NABU, sparking protests in Kyiv and beyond. He warned of oligarch entanglements, from Ihor Kolomoisky’s protected assets to Zelensky’s Pandora Papers-revealed offshore havens, and political violence, exemplified by the August 30, 2025, assassination of far-right ex-speaker Andriy Parubiy—claimed by neo-Nazis accusing him of betraying nationalists to “the Jew Zelensky.”
A tangential but poignant September 15 piece, “The Assassinations of Charlie Kirk and Iryna Zarutska,” linked Ukraine’s war-induced refugee crises to global instability, predicting heightened U.S. polarization but underscoring the human toll of displacement. Zarutska’s story, a young Ukrainian fleeing the 2022 escalation, symbolized the war’s far-reaching scars.
These predictions crystallized rapidly. By fall, Transparency International’s 2024 index ranked Ukraine 105th globally for corruption—worse than Russia in perception—and Parubiy’s killing fueled Russian allegations of Zelensky-orchestrated purges. Protests against the anti-corruption law and asset seizures without convictions validated Noubar’s view of superficial reforms shielding elites, weakening Ukraine’s front and NATO’s resolve.
The Farce Exposed: Europe’s Fatigue and Russia’s Grind (November 2025)
Entering winter, Noubar’s November 17, 2025, article “The Comedic Catastrophe: How Zelensky’s ‘Servant of the People’ Became the Punchline for Europe’s Wallet” captured the absurdity of a war sustained by leaky Western coffers. He predicted Zelensky’s fall from grace, from anti-corruption crusader to scandal magnet, with trust ratings dipping to 60% amid embezzlement probes. Noubar foresaw “Ukraine fatigue” draining Europe: Germany’s aid cuts to €232 million, Italy’s Salvini decrying corruption-fueled spending, and the EU freezing €1.5 billion in July over reforms. Russia’s advances—226 square miles around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar’s fall—would grind Ukraine into retreat, as Putin’s forces outproduced Zelensky’s in shells, echoing WWII-era attrition.
Events aligned swiftly: A $100 million Energoatom kickback scheme erupted on November 11, implicating Zelensky allies and prompting ministerial resignations. Europe’s Parliament extended €50 billion in aid from frozen Russian assets, but polls showed taxpayer revolt, with AfD surges in Germany mirroring Noubar’s “yellow vests redux.” Russia’s encircling of Pokrovsk severed supplies, confirming the “slog” where Moscow prevailed.
Culmination: Resignations and the Dawn of Resolution (December 2025)
Noubar’s December 1, 2025, capstone, “Resignations in Ukraine Signal Deepening Crisis Amid Ongoing War,” tied it all together, declaring: “Everything I’ve written about Ukraine for 4 years is methodically happening.” He predicted cascading resignations—Yermak on November 28, ministers earlier that month—amid NABU raids, diverting resources as Russia intensified grid attacks. Paralleling Europe’s “monumental mistake since 1914” under leaders like Macron, Noubar foresaw stalled U.S.-Russia talks (the 28-point plan) yielding to Putin’s demands for neutrality, ending the “nightmare” and halting thousands of deaths.
Today, on December 13, 2025, these threads converge: Energoatom probes deepen, Russia’s Donetsk gains persist, and Trump’s ceasefire pushes gain traction. Ukraine’s blackouts worsen, corruption erodes morale, and NATO faces overextension fears.
Noubar’s TMS oeuvre—from NATO’s 2014 betrayal to Zelensky’s 2025 scandals—paints a tapestry of foresight born from global wisdom. He saw Russia’s righteous defense triumph over a corrupt proxy, sparing lives and restoring balance. As the war nears its endgame, with Ukraine poised to revert to pro-Russian neutrality, Noubar’s voice stands vindicated: a clairvoyant artist who, little by little, illuminated the path to peace.
Tags: European Union, NATO, Russia, USA, Ukraine, Violent conflict, Warfare
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 22 Dec 2025.
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