Ukraine: Conditional Recognition against Referendum

CONFLICT RESOLUTION - MEDIATION, 12 Jan 2026

Nils Vidar Vambheim – TRANSCEND Media Service

A Framework for a Lasting Solution in Donbass

Summary

3 Dec 2026 – The framework is based on the principle that lasting peace cannot be achieved by freezing a conflict or relying on trust that does not exist. Mechanisms must be established that solve root problems, and build trust in the process.

The core idea is that Russia will gain a symbolic and legal victory through conditional recognition, where Ukraine in return demands that the legitimacy of the people be clarified through a transparent and internationally monitored election. This combination creates an incentive system in which both parties must show some form of national self-confidence about the support of the people in the disputed region. Which in turn weighs the positions of of the two sides, while allowing a choice.

At the same time, on the other hand, it will entail ethical consequences to refuse such a solution: If you do not believe that the people are on your side, and refuse to let a third party organize the election, then the exercise of power is de-legitimized with the aim of forcing the region under someone’s administration. Today, the situation is not well clarified, and both sides believe that Donbass should be under their administration.

Neutrality is considered a prerequisite in this framework. We elaborate on why, and what kind of neutrality this is about. Neutrality can be a strong position, and does not have to be a loss or submission. We see this as uncontroversial, because it makes fundamental sense to have buffer zones between nuclear powers, in a world organized around strategic nuclear weapons balance.

Below is a bullet list of what the process towards peace can look like, which is elaborated further in the proposal. Neutrality as a prerequisite: Ukraine remains neutral, but it must be placed in a context where it does not mean capitulation and weakness, but where it instead provides strategic strength, by being a link for future trade and relations between East and West.

• Conditional recognition: Russia receives immediate recognition of control, in return for a fair election within (e.g.) 12 months.
• Binding popular vote: Both parties commit in advance to respect the Guarantor panel and process: A broadly composed panel of countries as neutral as possible ensures election organization, security and auditing. [this is a discussion point]

Election Security and Transparency

Barracked military presence, safe polling stations, open publishing, and third-party auditing to prevent cheating.

• Establish a mechanism to secure the right to vote in exile, as well as safeguard against electoral fraud in exile (negotiation point what degree and type of security is needed).
• Economic mechanisms: Escrow and peace funds make the agreement self-sustaining, and snapback ensures reaction in the event of a Galtung-inspired framework: Language and minority rights, memorial commission, and long-term institutionalized dialogue build positive peace.

Brief Background and Framework

In this framework, the status of the Donbass is understood as the critical root problem that needs to be solved in order to clarify the subsequent conflict dynamics regarding Ukraine and Ukraine’s international status. Its historical core can be traced to 1994, when the four demands of coal workers were rejected during the establishment of Ukraine’s National Assembly (Rada). This became a symbolic and practical break between the central authority and the region’s industrial and linguistic identity. Later claims of ultranationalism, the need for de-Nazification and change of governance have largely emerged as expressions of the unresolved status of the Donbass.

Older historical conditions – such as Stalin’s integration of the Donbass into Ukraine and Khrushchev’s transfer of Crimea – are parts of the background, but belong to a geopolitical order that no longer exists. In a modern perspective, the transition from Soviet Commonwealth to sovereign state rule in 1991, and the formation of the parliament in 1994, is the most relevant starting point for understanding the current structure of the conflict.

Some Issues of Principle Involved in the Proposal

The CRCR (Conditional Recognition on Condition of Referendum) model seeks to address this by establishing a mechanism whereby the Donbass is temporarily recognized as Russian-administered territory, in exchange for an internationally administered and triple-verified referendum within twelve months of the agreement. The approach is based on the principle that popular sovereignty takes precedence over national sovereignty, and that the question of the status of the Donbass was never clearly clarified after 1991. The Minsk II process attempted to answer this, but was hampered by time pressure and a breach of the agreed timeline. The goal is therefore not to formulate a “new Minsk agreement”, but to solve the central question that was the basis for both Minsk agreements, about what kind of affiliation Donbass itself wants.

As the conflict has now escalated to involve the US, Russia and the EU, a lasting solution must depend not only on dialogue between Russia and Ukraine, but on these peripheral parties helping to create a context in which both sides can agree on peace, in a way that is beneficial to both parties.

The BAF proposal sees the start of a solution through an internationally verified referendum under zero-trust assumptions as core measures. Through gradual implementation, mutual control and transparent mechanisms, the process can build a minimum of trust and institutional interaction between the parties – which in turn can form the basis for a stable and lasting peace, in a context that the United States, the European Union and NATO can work together to make peace attractive to both Russia and Ukraine.

International and Institutional Aspects

The model takes into account security, legitimacy, economic stability and institutional robustness through a phase-based process, led by a guarantor panel and supported by established international institutions such as the United Nations Department of Peacebuilding Affairs (DPPA), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA).

At an overall level, the framework also seeks to find methods that reduce the risk of future blocs conflicting with each other. A multipolar world seems to be emerging, and the way we resolve conflicts today will help shape the future global security model.

Although the situation seems hopeless now as a result of geostrategic complexities, claims and considerations – it is precisely in this climate that we can develop the tools we need to reduce geostrategic hotspots in the future, mitigate risks, and establish a long-lasting peace.

DOWNLOAD FULL VERSION PDF:

Recognition on Condition of Referendum – Full Version 8 Jan 2026

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Nils Vidar Vambheim – I was the first director of the Centre for Peace Studies, today a division within a Center for Geopolitics, Peace and Security at UiT/The Arctic University of Norway (https://uit.no/research/gps ). I used to be the local host of Professor Johan Galtung when he visited our university. I am Associate Professor (retired,) Dept. of Education and Centre for Peace Studies, AUN. e-mail: vidar.vambheim@uit.no

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 12 Jan 2026.

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