Russia Invited Back to the Middle East

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 16 Feb 2026

Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service

3 Feb 2026 – In November last year, I wrote an article entitled, “Russia Reduces Its Involvement in the Middle East.” Israel (i.e. the Likud faction), which is becoming a hegemonic power in the Middle East, is extremely strong.  On the other hand, Russia’s allies, such as Syria (i.e. the Assad regime), Iran, and Hezbollah, were one after another crushed by Israel. Moreover, the Likud faction led Russia to victory in the Ukraine War, leading to the self-destruction of the Britain and Europe, which considered Russia as their enemy. Therefore, Russia, out of consideration for Israel, decided to refrain from hegemonic (military security) activities in the Middle East.

 

Those political powers, associated with the Likud faction, invaded the Caucasus and Central Asia, including Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, which had been Russia’s sphere of influence, and replaced these regions with the sphere of the influence of Turkey, which had become a vassal of the Likud faction. Putin has been very subservient to the Likud faction and readily left his long-standing sphere of the influence when asked to do so. It was speculated that he reduced his involvement in the Middle East because of the Likud faction’s request.

 

However, a new trend in the opposite direction has recently emerged. Leaders and senior officials from those Middle Eastern countries, including Syria, Iran, the UAE, and the Palestinian Authority, have been visiting Moscow one after another to consult with Putin on various issues. Russia, which had previously left the Middle East, is being called back. Syrian President Sharaa has visited Russia twice in the past four months and met with Putin. Sharaa took power in Syria as the Israeli puppet. The UAE president recently visited Russia, likely to discuss with Putin the issue of Iran, which is in danger of being crushed by the US and Israel. Be aware in this context that both Sha’a’a and the UAE are under the umbrella of Israel (Likud).

 

Rather than expelling Russia from the Middle East, which sided with Iran in the Syrian civil war, Israel (and Trump) are instead beginning to use Russia to resolve various Middle Eastern issues. Russia first became involved in the Syrian Civil War in 2015 because then-President Obama disapproved of the Likud faction’s attempts to overthrow the Assad regime by inciting a civil war (and the Arab Spring). Putin, at Obama’s (British) request, sent the air forces to Syria to support Assad and Hezbollah.

 

The British and Likud factions have been competing for dominance in the Middle East and the US Intelligence Community, with the Likud faction winning. In the 2010s, Putin, at the request of the British faction, stabilized Syria and stopped Likud’s subversive activities. However, with the US becoming Trumpist, and the Likud faction defeating the British faction, Putin decided to withdraw from the Middle East. Nonetheless, the Likud faction also favored Putin’s convenience. So, the Likud  invited him back to the Middle East. Isn’t that how it went?

 

There is another point we can glean from the above-mentioned trend. The Likud faction (i.e. Israel and Trump) is not aiming for the regime-change in Iran, but rather for soft overthrow, which would avoid destroying the current Iranian regime if the Likud faction accepts its demands. Otherwise, Putin wouldn’t act as a mediator, and high-ranking officials from the Israeli-backed UAE and Iran wouldn’t visit Moscow one after another

 

If the Likud faction intends to overthrow Iran, they don’t need a mediator. Russia should just stay out of the Middle East. However, that is not the current situation of Iran and its political environment. The Likud faction is threatening to launch an all-out attack and overthrow Iran.  However, these Trump-Israeli Likud powers are not to actually overthrow Iran, but to intimidate it into making concessions. They are threatening to assemble the US forces off the coast of Iran and launch an all-out attack at any moment.

 

Those representatives from Iran and the UAE visited Moscow one after another and discussed something with Putin and others. Afterward, the US President Trump began to suggest that the negotiations with Iran might be progressing and that Iran’s attitude toward the negotiations was favorable. Trump postponed the military attack on Iran that was expected to take place on 1 February 2026.  He has shifted his stance to prioritizing the diplomatic negotiations with Iran, including on the nuclear issues.

 

Trump and Israel are involving Putin in their military and diplomatic maneuvers to influence the Middle East, using him as a mediator. Putin is acting not for Russia’s own purposes, but for the purposes of the Likud faction. The Likud faction has taken over the US Intelligence Community and wields great power. By subserviently following the Likud faction’s orders, Putin receives various intelligence from them, allowing him to take actions that benefit Russia globally, including in Ukraine, Europe, and Africa. They don’t do as they are told because they are afraid of the Likud. They do as they are told and get along with the Likud because they benefit from it. They get a lot in return. Takaichi, Japanese PM, is probably doing the same thing.

 

Britain and France, who are in conflict with the Likud by criticizing Israel and Trump, are suffering increasingly losses and self-destructing. Syria was once under French control. France has played the role of the rival to the British Empire since the early modern period, and is essentially a British puppet, i.e., the British faction. The Assad family was France’s enemy, but was far weaker than the British faction. When the Likud faction, which competed with the British faction, started the Arab Spring and attempted to overthrow the Assad regime and allow ISIS al-Qaeda to take over Syria, Obama, a British faction fellow, asked Russia to protect Assad and his family. At that time, Obama was in conflict with the Likud faction due to some secretive struggles within the US upper echelons. So, if Obama himself had sent the US troops to Syria, the Likud faction would have led him into a quagmire of self-destruction. Therefore, he did not do it by himself, but instead he asked Putin to intervene militarily.

 

Then, with the arrival of Trump, the Likud faction has secured victory in the above-mentioned secret struggles within the US upper echelons. Israel mobilized its puppet al-Qaeda group, Sharaa (HTS), and had Putin provide asylum. Sharaa overthrew the Assad regime and drove him and his family to Moscow. Trump favors and supports Sharaa. French President Macron is trying to re-incorporate Syria, but Sha’a’a (under orders from the Likud faction) is closer to Russia than France. The Likud faction is using Russia to drive the British faction (i.e. the UK, France, and the EU) out of the Middle East. Russia, which was supposed to leave Syria, has returned, valued by the Likud faction, Syria’s secret boss. This is why the Russian naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast is also maintained.

 

In contrast to Russia, Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been given the cold shoulder by the Likud faction in the Middle East. He was previously active in the Middle East, mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. However, he has recently become to be silent. Previously, Iran relied on China (and Russia), even as the United States threatened and sanctioned Iran, and was able to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, furthering its “de-Americanization”. However, since last year, as the United States and Israel have continued to attack and threaten Iran, Russia has continued to deal with Iran.  Meanwhile, the CCP has only maintained a low-key relationship with Iran.

Israel (i.e. Likud faction), which is now the new hegemonic power in the Middle East, values ​​Russia and has decided to hire it as the arbitrator [between Israel and Iran].  On the other hand, Israel does not welcome the CCP [to the Middle East].  Although the CCP has continued to clash with the British faction, it ideologically aligns with left-liberal international politics, supports a Palestinian state, and criticizes the continuation of the US and Israel bullying of Iran. Therefore, the Likud faction intends to keep the CCP out of the Middle East.

 

The Likud faction is likely interfering in the CCP’s internal affairs to threaten Xi Jinping.  For example, recently, several generals who were close to Xi Jinping in the Central Committee of the CCP have been arrested and forced to resign on corruption charges. This may be the result of the Likud faction activating spies planted in the CCP’s upper echelons to foment internal conflict between the generals and Xi Jinping. This internal conflict within the CCP has been ongoing since last year. By creating internal conflict in a way that Xi Jinping would notice, the Likud faction may have intimidated him and led the CCP to act cautiously in the Middle East, a region dominated by the Likud faction. If Sanae Takaichi, Japanese PM and the chief of the Japanese ruling party LDP, wins the election [on 8 February 2026], she will secure a stable grip on power in Japan and become a proxy for the Likud faction, acting as a Trump-Likud watchdog against the CCP.  The US Intelligence Community has access to all of Japan’s secrets. Takaichi’s extraordinary political strength is based on the extraordinary strength of the Likud faction, which controls the US Intelligence Community.

 

Even though the Likud is strong enough, it will not simply destroy the Middle Eastern powers such as Iran, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia one after another.  The Likud did not expel Russia from the Middle East, and let Russia enable to be involved in the Middle East. As such, the Likud respects a multipolar world and maintains the complex balance of power in the Middle East without significantly disrupting it. Israel has reduced Iran’s sphere of influence, including Syria, and made it its own, but it is highly likely that Israel will stop short of destroying Iran itself.

 

Until recently, there has been a widespread claim in the Israeli politics that “Turkey should be destroyed because Erdogan is anti-Israel.” However, the situation has since shifted in the opposite direction. Israel recently decided to reopen the Rafah Border Crossing Point between Gaza and Egypt for the first time in a year. Turkey, pleased with this decision, has shown a willingness to soften its hostility toward Israel and resume trade expansion.

 

Even with the reopening of the Rafah Border Crossing Point, the movement of people and goods remains restricted.  The situation in Gaza also remains largely unchanged. The reopening of the Rafah may be considered as an Israeli stunt, intended to entice Turkey (and Saudi Arabia) to improve the Israeli relations with these countries. Even though Gaza remains as a region of mountains of rubble and corpses, the international community will no longer condemn Israel’s crimes against humanity. Israel is about to complete the obliteration of Palestine.  The Middle East is becoming the hegemonic region, led by the Likud-controlled Israel, maintaining a complex balance. On the other hand, China is being restrained, while Russia is acting well. Because of such situation, Putin is probably chuckling now.

 

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Notes:

  1. Those hyperlinks in some of the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters under some of the paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience and references for the reader.
  2. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for him to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
  3. Some sentences in the article, deemed important and/or emphasized in terms of the context, are expressed in the Italic letters, by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
  4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Transcend Media Service (TMS) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
  5. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English.

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Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com 

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 Translation:  Satoshi Ashikaga — Google Translate

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 Original in Japanese:  中東に再招待されるロシア


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This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 16 Feb 2026.

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