The “Czech Trump” Rises to Power as European Leaders Seek to Continue the Ukraine War for Financial Gain

EUROPE, 13 Oct 2025

Toshihiko Shiobara – TRANSCEND Media Service

9 Oct 2025 – As I wrote in my article “Ukraine’s Next Year’s National Budget Proposal Shocks Us… Are They Really Trying to Demand 8.9 Trillion Yen [approx.US$ 59 billion 300 million or € 51 billion] in Defense Spending?” Ukraine cannot continue the war until next year without foreign aid. Conversely, reducing or suspending aid could pressure Ukraine to end the war. However, most European countries have decided to continue supporting Ukraine and have not pressured it to seek a ceasefire or peace.

However, the results of the Czech parliamentary elections demonstrate that the general public can see how deceptive aid to Ukraine is.  Following Hungary and Slovakia, the new Czech government is certain to adopt a cautious stance toward supporting Ukraine.

1. “Czech Trump” Makes a Major Gain

According to the results of the Czech lower house elections held on 3^rd and 4^th October 2025, the Action of Dissatisfied Citizens (ANO), led by billionaire Andrej Babiš, also known as “Czech Trump,” emerged as the largest party. This makes it almost certain that the military aid by Czech to Ukraine will be cut.

The New York Times reports that ANO, which means “for,” pledged to cut taxes, increase pensions, cap energy prices, and freeze politicians’ salaries. Furthermore, ANO is cautious about continuing military aid to support Ukraine’s defense against Russia, and, in consideration of voters’ war-weariness after three and a half years of war, is urging that aid to Ukraine be redirected to the Czech economy.

ANO, which secured 80 seats in the 200-seat parliament, is aiming to form a coalition government with the anti-immigration party, Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), led by Czech-Japanese entrepreneur Tomio Okamura.   COURRiER Japon, the Japanese version of Currier International,  reports that Tomio Okamura’s father is half Japanese and half Korean, and his mother is Czech. The SPD is firmly opposed to immigration policies, advocates  withdrawal from the European Union, and equates Islam with “Hitler-style Nazism.” Naturally, it also opposes aid to Ukraine.

In any case, the BBC points out that “Czech military support for Ukraine’s war effort is likely to change significantly under Babis.” Babis has called the plan to purchase artillery shells for Ukraine via Prague corrupt. On the eve of the election, he argued that the goal of preventing a complete Russian occupation of Ukraine had already been achieved and that further military aid should be reconsidered.

Unfortunately, however, in other European countries without major elections on the horizon, the deception of existing political leaders continues. This deception is particularly evident in France, where Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned on 6^th October 2025.

2. Earn “Defense Spending Rates” through Ukraine Aid

I became acutely aware of the despicable nature of European political leaders when I learned that the fourth paragraph of the “NATO Washington Summit Declaration,” released on 10 July 2024,  at the end of the document, “Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine,” stipulates that “All Allied assistance to Ukraine according to the above criteria, whether through NATO, bilateral, multilateral, or other means, will be counted.”  The “above criteria” refers to:

1. Purchases of military equipment for Ukraine;
   2. In-kind assistance provided to Ukraine;
   3.   Costs related to the maintenance, logistics, and transportation of military equipment for Ukraine;
   4.   Military training costs for Ukraine;
   5.   Operating costs related to military assistance to Ukraine, investment in and support for Ukraine’s defense infrastructure and defense industry; and
   6.   All contributions to the NATO Trust Fund for Ukraine, including non-lethal assistance.

In other words, for the European NATO member states, aid to Ukraine counts as annual defense spending, helping to increase its share of gross domestic product (GDP). This allows them to make their annual defense spending/GDP appear higher and satisfy the demands of the U.S. administration of President Donald Trump (who is calling for the European member states to increase their defense contributions).

However, this creates an incentive for the European political leaders to allow Ukraine to continue its aimless proxy war to weaken Russia, rather than pressuring the Ukrainian government to end the war as soon as possible. I wonder if there are some unscrupulous European politicians who are using the Ukraine War to increase their defense/GDP without facing any domestic public backlash.

I don’t know what the Japanese government is doing. Like other European NATO member states, is Japan also not including aid to Ukraine in its defense spending to make its defense/GDP appear higher in order to convince President Trump? I hope this will be clarified during the next Japanese Diet deliberations.

3. The Real Reason the Ukraine War Does Not End

In fact, the real reason the Ukraine War is so far from over also has something to do with European political leaders. They fear that if Ukraine loses to Russia, they won’t receive reparations from Russia, their aid to Ukraine will be wasted, and they will be burdened with even greater financial burdens. Therefore, they are plotting to postpone the burden by having Ukraine continue its proxy war and, if possible, by forcing Russia to pay reparations, thereby mitigating their own financial burden even slightly.

As I wrote in my article “Ukraine’s Next Year’s State Budget Proposal: Shocking… Are They Trying to Demand 8.9 Trillion Yen [approx.$59billion 300million or €51billion] in Defense Spending?!“, the Ukrainian economy would fall into collapse without support from Europe, the United States, Japan, and even the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Considering the shortage of troops, the increase in desertions, and the corruption surrounding Volodymyr Zelensky, it would be better for both Ukraine and European countries to bring about a ceasefire and peace as soon as possible and focus on reconstruction and recovery rather than supporting Ukraine in this state. Nevertheless, it appears that European political leaders are betting on the continuation of the war by siding with the old media and not allowing their citizens to hear about the devastation in Ukraine.

4. “Reparation Loans” in Focus

If the war continues into next year, these countries and international organizations will be forced to bear even greater burdens. For this reason, on 10^th September 2025, the European Union (EU) President Ursula von der Leyen stated in her “2025 State of the Union” address that “we must urgently work on new solutions to finance Ukraine’s war efforts based on frozen Russian assets.” She then suggested that “cash balances related to Russian assets could be used to provide a reparation loan to Ukraine”.

The reparation loan is intended to help the Ukraine finance its war effort and would only be repaid once Ukraine receives reparations from Russia. In that sense, Ukraine would not repay the loan unless Russia pays reparations. With the end of the U.S. military funding for Ukraine and many EU governments facing financial difficulties, the European Commission has proposed to the EU that frozen assets (cash balances) owned by Russia’s central bank be used to support Ukraine in 2026 and 2027.

5. European Leaders’ Evil Plans

On 1 October 2025, the EU leaders gathered in Copenhagen for an informal meeting on Ukraine’s defense and further support. One of the main topics discussed was the provision of a reparations loan to Ukraine using Russian funds frozen in Europe.

According to a Reuters report, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen stated after the summit, “I strongly support this proposal (the reparations loan).” Meanwhile, Belgium, home to most of the frozen assets, is adamant that before agreeing to this plan, it needs strong EU guarantees that it will not be left to deal with Moscow alone if it is suddenly forced to return Russian assets. France and Luxembourg also support this idea. In other words, there are still many hurdles to overcome before a reparations loan can be realized.

In the end, the informal meeting failed to reach an agreement on a proposal to provide Ukraine with a 140 billion euro (approximately $240 billion) loan secured by frozen Russian assets (see FT). For now, all that is expected is that EU leaders will instruct the European Commission to prepare a concrete, legally sound proposal at their summit on 23-24 October 2025.

6. Countermeasures against Compensation Loans

In fact, at this stage (as of 2 October 2025), it is unclear what kind of compensation loan the EU is planning. However, its aim is to use Russian assets frozen immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, to support Ukraine while minimizing the use of its own funds. Of course, this could be considered “theft” and raises various questions under international law. The Russian government will certainly file a lawsuit, and the EU political leaders must arm themselves with some solid “cunning” or face the possibility of losing the case.

In addition, President Vladimir Putin is preparing a plan to quickly nationalize Russia’s foreign assets in response to the EU actions (see Bloomberg). If the EU decides to confiscate Russia’s overseas assets, Russia could nationalize them and quickly sell them under a new privatization mechanism. In fact, on 30 September 2025, Putin signed Presidential Decree No. 693, which sought to speed up the privatization process.

7. Loan 24 Trillion Yen［approx. € 140billion] to Ukraine

The idea of ​​a reparations loan is based on a paper co-authored by prominent Reuters commentator Hugo Dixon and others titled “Ukraine’s Reparations Loan,” published in February 2025. A paper co-authored by Dixon and Lee Buchheit titled “The Ukraine Reparations Loan Solution” was also published in February 2025.

Here, I will outline only the key points. A “reparations loan” is explained as an innovative way to mobilize these assets for Kyiv’s benefit without confiscating them. This is because, under international law, states are granted “sovereign immunity,” making it difficult to confiscate Russian assets (see my book “The Ambitions of Imperial America” ​​[pp. 141-149] for a more detailed explanation). Alternatively, confiscation itself could violate domestic law in some countries. Therefore, the following procedure is being envisioned:

• Holders of frozen Russian assets would lend Ukraine up to 140 billion euros.
  • In return, Ukraine will pledge its war reparations claims against Russia as collateral.
  •   The loan will be structured with limited recourse (a right that allows creditors to seek payment against the debtor’s guarantors, endorsers on negotiable instruments such as promissory notes, or other assets if the debtor defaults), and the collateral will serve as the sole source of repayment.
  •   An International Compensation Commission will assess Ukraine’s war reparations claims.
  •   If Russia refuses to pay, which is likely, countries holding frozen Russian assets will seize the collateral, effectively inheriting claims against Russia.
  • ​​  Countries that provided loans to Ukraine will then offset their claims against the frozen assets and recover the full amount owed to Ukraine.

The “up to 140 billion euros” statement comes from a report on 25 September 2025 by The Financial Times that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had proposed the idea of ​​launching a massive EU loan to Ukraine amounting to 140 billion euros. Meanwhile, Reuters reported, on 24 September 2025, that the EU’s reparations loan to Ukraine could be as much as 130 billion euros (approximately ¥23 trillion).

Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the majority of Russia’s state assets have been frozen at Euroclear (an international securities settlement organization headquartered in Belgium). Most of these were invested in Western government bonds and then liquidated upon maturity.

Of the assets held at Euroclear, 175 billion euros (approximately ¥31 trillion) have matured, leaving approximately 210 billion euros (approximately ¥37.2 trillion) in cash that could be used for new loans in a deposit account at the European Central Bank. However, before the EU can proceed with reparations financing, the 45 billion euro (approximately ¥8 trillion) G7 loan agreed upon in 2024 must be repaid. This means that 130 billion euros (175 billion minus 45 billion euros) remains available for new loans.

8. Ukraine Loans Disappearing in the Dark

Ukraine is struggling with a cash shortage not only for next year but for the rest of this year as well. On 6 October 2025, Prime Minister Yulia Svyridenko posted on Telegram that the government had approved a budget amendment allocating an additional 324.7 billion hryvnia (approximately $1.2 trillion) to defense spending by the end of the year. “The primary source of funding for the increased spending will be 6 billion euros (approximately $1.1 trillion) from the EU under the G7’s Special Revenue Advance Loan for Ukraine (ERA) initiative,” he explained. ERA is a loan made using special revenues derived from frozen Russian state assets.

Meanwhile, The New York Times reported on the same day that military aid to Ukraine is disappearing into the shadows of corruption. An investigation by Ukraine’s defense procurement agency into purchases made between the beginning of last year and March 2025 revealed that “dozens of contracts for artillery shells, drones, and other weapons were not awarded at the minimum bid price.” An audit revealed that the difference between the low bid and the contract actually awarded to the procurement agency amounted to at least 5.4 billion hryvnia (approximately 20 billion yen [or $800million]). This highlights the lack of foresight on the part of European political leaders who have poured taxpayers’ money into Ukraine, where those seeking to extract money from the West and line their pockets under the pretext of continuing the Ukraine War.

Ukraine is also eyeing assistance from the G7.  On 1 October 2025, the G7 finance ministers issued a statement announcing that they had agreed to take joint measures to increase pressure on Russia, end its ongoing, brutal war against Ukraine, and support Ukraine’s ongoing efforts to defend itself. Powerful countries appear to already be moving toward providing reparation loans. Cash-strapped major European countries and the G7 members, including Japan, are “wrestling in Russia’s loincloth” in an attempt to continue their corrupt “dirty aid” to Ukraine.

9. Continuing the Ukraine War for Money?

In fact, these financially-related developments are precisely why the Ukraine War is so far from over. In short, European political leaders and the leaders of the G7 member states want Ukraine to continue the war “for the sake of money.”

If the Ukraine War were to end now, not only would Ukraine have to cede some territory to Russia, but it could also prevent it from receiving reparations from Russia. Furthermore, it may even be necessary to promise to ease or even lift sanctions against Russia. Without reparations, the European countries, in particular, would be forced to bear a heavy financial burden.

Thus, it appears that “unscrupulous” the European political leaders are postponing the financial issue by continuing the Ukraine War and trying to avoid responsibility for pouring taxpayers’ money into Ukraine like water. On the other hand, as I have written many times on this site, the fact that Ukraine is on the brink of defeat, suffering from a shortage of troops, desertions, and rampant corruption is a reality that the public is unaware of, and that their tax money is being wasted, due to the traditional media’s refusal to report on it.

The success of ANO in the Czech Republic may be due to Babis’s explanation of this reality, exposing the deception of the European leaders who have consistently advocated for further military aid to Ukraine and stricter sanctions against Russia, blaming Russia for the ongoing war.

In reality, no matter how long the war continues, it is difficult to compete for territory protected by trenches and fortifications, making it difficult to clearly determine who is winning and who is losing. And can the political leaders even explain why they want to continue this war for four or five years? Continuing the Ukraine War will only result in the loss of lives.

Logically, as the results of the Czech parliamentary election show, the European countries should urge Ukraine to reduce its aid in order to expedite a ceasefire and peace. A ceasefire and peace should be achieved as soon as possible, and reconstruction assistance should follow.

Seen this way, one can understand that the European political leaders who continue the Ukraine War “for the sake of money” appear reckless and unscrupulous. Is this just my own thought?

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks were added by the translator for the convenience of the readers of this English translation version.
2. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Toshihiko Shiobara, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Transcend Media Service (TMS) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
3. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed, including the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar, Euro and the Japanese Yen.. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the reader reads the same article in English. 

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Original author:  Toshihiko Shiobara

Profile:
Commentator. Born in 1956. Graduated from the Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Economics with a Master’s degree. Previously worked for the Nikkei Inc. and the Asahi Shimbun (Moscow correspondent), and has served as an associate professor at Kochi University Graduate School. He studies the geopolitics and geoeconomics of land, sea, air, and cyberspace. He is a leading expert on Ukraine issues. His books include “Ukraine Gate,” “Ukraine 2.0,” “Ukraine 3.0,” “Putin 3.0,” “The Ukrainian War as Revenge,” and “The Struggle for Hegemony in Cyberspace” (all published by Shakai Hyoronsha), “Russia’s Military Industry” (Iwanami Shinsho), “The Truth and Lies of Russia as a ‘Military Superpower‘” (Iwanami Shoten), and “Business Economics.”

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Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

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Original in Japanese:  カネのためにウクライナ戦争継続を求める欧州指導者たちが躍進させた「チェコのトランプ」

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 13 Oct 2025.

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