Russia Reduces Its Involvement in the Middle East

IN FOCUS, 24 Nov 2025

Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service

15 Nov 2025 – In late October 2025, the Primakov Center, a Russian foreign policy research institute, held a conference in Moscow to discuss Russia’s relations with the Middle East, bringing together foreign policy experts from Middle Eastern countries (excluding Israel), including Arab countries, Iran, and Turkey, as well as Russian diplomatic experts. Putin’s foreign policy advisors attended from the Russian side and hinted at the key changes to the Putin administration’s future Middle East strategy. The participants from the Middle East were scholars and former diplomats affiliated with their respective foreign ministries. The conference served as an informal communication of Russia’s strategic shift to Middle Eastern governments. （“Russia – the Middle East”: Five Years of Dialogue and Ideas）[Russia Sidelined In New Middle East After Trump’s Israel-Gaza Deal]

At this conference, Russia conveyed to Middle Eastern countries that the era of relying on Russia to resolve Middle Eastern conflicts is over.

“Russia has previously led conflict resolution in the Middle East (West Asia) and engaged in shaping order through military intervention, but the future of the Middle East is now the sphere of influence of the United States (and Israel, which controls it). It is no longer acceptable for outside powers other than the United States to shape the order. Russia will not compete, but will accept the order established by the United States (Israel) and Middle Eastern countries (which Israel imposed on the United States and Middle Eastern countries). We will fight in Europe, but we will no longer fight in the Middle East.” （‘West Asia is no longer our battle’: Moscow withdraws from the arena）

Russia’s official statement is that “The Middle East is within the US sphere of influence, so Russia will reduce its involvement.” However, over the past 20 years since the Iraq War, the US hegemony in the Middle East has been declining. During the Arab Spring in 2011, when the US hegemony was stronger than it is now, when Syria’s Assad regime was on the verge of being overthrown by the US-Israeli puppet Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda, Russia invaded Syria militarily and kept Assad alive. US hegemony is now in decline. Russia doesn’t even rely on dollar settlements for trade. So, is Russia now reducing its involvement in the Middle East out of consideration for the United States? （Russia-China trade almost 100% outside Western currencies）

This question arises because we assume that the past and present US hegemony types are the same. While Obama and Biden’s US hegemony is British, Trump’s is Likud (Israeli). Over the 25 years since 9/11, the intelligence community that controls US hegemony has irreversibly shifted control from British to Likud. Previously, it was “the United States (taken over by Britain),” but in recent years, it has become “the United States (taken over by Israel).”  While the British viewed Russia as an enemy in order to maintain their hegemony, the Likud faction accepts a multipolar world (on the promise that they were led by the original multipolar faction in the US upper echelons to take over the Intelligence Community). As promised, the Likud faction started the Ukraine War, giving Russia the upper hand and causing the British faction (UK-EU) to self-destruct. In return for the Likud faction’s defeat of its arch enemy, the British faction, Russia has decided to hand over Middle Eastern hegemony to the United States (Israel). This is what it has announced today.

The “Arab Spring” and Syrian civil war that began in 2011 were started by the Likud faction as a counterattack against the British faction’s attempt to seize the initiative in US hegemony from the Likud faction. In his desperate situation, Obama asked Putin to send Russian air forces and Iran to send ground troops (Shiite militias) to Syria, thereby prolonging the Assad regime’s existence in order to maintain order in the Middle East. For the British faction, it was better to have Russia manage the Middle Eastern order than have Israel destroy it. Russia became the shaper of order in the Middle East at the request of the United States (UK-EU).

Nearly 15 years have passed since then, and the British are accelerating their self-destruction due to the machinations of the Likud faction. Obama’s US Democratic Party self-destructed through the awakening movement, liberal totalitarianism, and extreme leftism (the liberals supporting Mamdani in New York are idiots).

The UK and EU are facing economic and social collapse due to incredibly foolish policies such as the Ukraine war instigated by the Likud faction, climate change countermeasures, welcoming Middle Eastern immigrants, and COVID-19 countermeasures.

With Likud-affiliated Trump’s return to the US presidency this year, Israel is using US intelligence and military power to crush Hezbollah and Assad, a continuation of the Arab Spring, and is carrying out the Gaza massacre, erasing the Palestinian partition (creation of a Palestinian state) plan that the British had prepared to weaken Israel at the time of its founding. (The massacre is destroying the humanitarianism that was the foundation of British-affiliated US hegemony.)   [Two-thirds of Israelis support Donald Trump in 2024 election: poll]

Israel and Trump are persuading and pressuring Muslim countries in the Middle East (and indeed the world) to abandon their hostility toward Israel, establish diplomatic relations, and join the Abraham Accords, which call for friendly relations with Israel. The focus going forward will be on the membership of Saudi Arabia, a leader in the Arab and Islamic world. The UAE, Saudi Arabia’s younger brother, was the first to join the Abraham Accords as a pioneer, and has been working for Israel in various areas, including diplomacy and the economy. Saudi Arabia has not joined the Accords not because it is anti-Israel, but because joining would be a loss of face for its leader. Western (British) liberals are reluctant to understand this, but international politics in the Middle East and non-American countries are driven by the logic of the survival of the fittest, not democracy or human rights. （Dugin: War Is Ahead Of Us）

Putin’s Russia supports Israeli-led initiatives. Officially, Russia supports the creation of a Palestinian state and formally opposes Israel’s massacre of Palestinians. At the same time, it also supports Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan, which is largely rhetoric (with Israel violating it repeatedly without punishment). With the Likud faction taking over the US Intelligence Community, the system of American sole hegemony maintained by the British faction is collapsing. The former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe are coming under the Russian hegemony, and the Middle East is coming under Israeli hegemony. For this reason, Russia has informally informed Middle Eastern countries that it will reduce its involvement in the Middle East in the hegemonic field (military security). （Kremlin ‘Supports & Welcomes’ Trump’s Gaza Plan, But Will Have No Involvement） [How Israel evolved from the Middle East’s David to its Goliath]

In today’s Middle East, Iran (the Islamic Republic regime) remains Israel’s enemy. Israel says it’s only a matter of time before war with Iran resumes. Obama sided with Iran, but Trump, in stark contrast, is part of Israel. Iran has traditionally relied on Russia and China to counter Israel. Now, Russia has unofficially announced a reduction in its involvement in the Middle East. Russia appears to have abandoned Iran. Will Israel overthrow the Iranian regime and turn it into a Syrian-style country (a puppet regime under Israel’s control) or a Libyan-style country (a fragmented, anarchic state)?

Both possibilities are possible. However, Putin also said, “Israel is sending a message to Iran through Russia.” This likely means that Israel is offering conditions that would reduce the Iranian threat, and if Iran implements those conditions, it will not attack and will coexist with Iran. Of course, Israel is known for its lies, so if Iran accepts and implements its stated conditions (such as disarmament) and weakens, it could attack and overthrow them (a “Saddam” or “Gaddafi” approach). (Both leaders were defeated after disarming at the behest of the US).  （Israel signaling to Iran via Russia – Putin） [What Does the New Reality in the Middle East Mean for Russia?]    [Opinion | America Can’t Do to North Korea What It Just Did to Iran]   [Why North Korea Is Angered by ‘Libya Model’ in Nuclear Talks]    [What North Korea learned from Libya’s decision to give up nuclear weapons]

However, if Israel uses a deceptive strategy to destroy Iran, the next country to be destroyed by a deceptive strategy could be Russia (or China or India). The governments of Putin, Xi Jinping, and Modi would be destroyed not militarily, but by the Likud faction as a color revolution-like espionage operation, subverted by domestic political opponents. Iran is a test of the future relationship between Israel, Russia, China, and India. Trust between major powers (poles, regional hegemons) is paramount to the stability of a multipolar world (and the global economy). BRICS exists for this purpose. The Jews who have been in charge of managing the hegemony (investors who want to stabilize and develop the world economy) are well aware of this (even in the British, the intelligence officers are not Anglo-Saxons but Jews such as the Rothschilds). I have a feeling that Iran’s government may not be overthrown as expected. （Central Asia doesn’t need another great game）

Trump recently gathered leaders of Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, at the White House for a meeting. Central Asia is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a joint regional hegemonic organization between China and Russia. The media has reported that Trump is pushing aside China and Russia to target Central Asia’s oil and gas. However, Trump, who is secretly a multipolar proponent, is not seriously targeting the region dominated by China and Russia. The oil and gas talk was merely a distraction; his main goal was to ask the Muslim Central Asian countries to be friendly with Israel. Kazakhstan has already decided to join the Abraham Accords.  （Kazakhstan, which already recognises Israel, to join ‘Abraham Accords’）

At the meeting with Middle Eastern diplomatic experts mentioned at the beginning, Russia also stated that it would not intervene in international politics in the Middle East (Israel’s hegemonic rule) as long as its interests and those of its neighbors were not violated. The region near Russia refers to the former Soviet Union’s Central Asia and the Caucasus. If Israel simply wanted to turn Islamic countries pro-Israel, rather than exploiting Central Asian oil and gas interests through Trump, Russia would have no problem. However, if exploitation were a serious goal rather than a diversion, it would violate Russia’s interests in the region and undermine the multipolar world. It remains unclear whether Israel truly respects the multipolar world.

Developments in the Caucasus, including Azerbaijan, raise concerns about whether Israel will uphold order in Russia’s vicinity. Under the pretext of strengthening its containment of Iran, Israel took over Azerbaijan, a former Soviet republic north of Iran, and forced Armenia, which Israel had previously supported, to make concessions and return Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. In this process, both Armenia and Azerbaijan have significantly weakened their dependence on Russia and even displayed hostile attitudes toward Russia. Israel is encroaching on Russia’s regional hegemony, but the Putin regime, which received the upper hand from the Likud faction in the Ukraine war, is silently complying. (Israel abandoned Armenia and allied with Azerbaijan./アルメニアを捨てアゼルバイジャンと組んだイスラエル）

Will Israel be satisfied with regional hegemony in the Middle East, or will it continue to use the hegemonic power of the US intelligence community to further compel Russia and China to compromise and destroy the newly formed multipolar world? This will affect not only Putin and Xi Jinping, but the future of all humanity.

Even before considering how far Israel’s expansion of hegemony will go, most people are unaware that the world has shifted from a British-style hegemonic system to a multipolar one. The left-wing Maduro regime in Venezuela, which is on the verge of being invaded by Trump, is asking countries that were in conflict with the US under the previous hegemonic system, such as Russia, China, and Iran, to send weapons. In a multipolar world, one pole does not intervene in the conflicts of other poles as a general rule. Russia, China, and Iran will not send weapons to Venezuela. I wonder if Maduro is acting with full knowledge of this. The left is unaware of the current changes in the world (which is why they are acting on the left).（Maduro Urgently Seeks Military Aid From Russia & China With US Bulls-Eye On Venezuela） [Opinion: Nicolás Maduro is looking outward for a bailout. It isn’t coming]    [Maduro’s last chance to negotiate a peaceful exit from power]     [Maduro’s Dictatorship is About to End]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
3. One or a few supplementary words, phrases or sentences in Italic letters without underlines in brackets [ ] or Gothic letters were added to show the original author’s message in some contexts or sentences clearer where deemed necessary, while the essential meaning in the original message of the author was retained, neither modified nor changed at all. 
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
5. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions referred to in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the reader reads this English translation article. 

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Sakai Tanaka:  After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001.  He was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Website: tanakanews.com

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: 中東への関与を下げたロシア

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 24 Nov 2025.

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