WHY CIVIL RESISTANCE WORKS: THE STRATEGIC LOGIC OF NONVIOLENT CONFLICT

COMMENTARY ARCHIVES, 26 Mar 2009

Maria Stephan and Erica Chenoweth

In-depth study on why civil resistance works. In International Security, volume 33, issue 1, pages 7-44.

This new study of 323 violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1900 to 2006 found that violent campaigns succeeded in only 26 percent of all cases, compared to 53 percent for nonviolent, civilian-based campaigns (Stephan and Chenoweth, “Why Civil Resistance World,” International Security, Summer 2008.) As well, in the face of crackdowns, civilian-based campaigns are six times more likely to succeed than violent campaigns that also faced repression.

This shows that violence is not the ultimate form of power. People themselves — who experience the nexus of violent insurgency, crime and corruption — can move from being victims and bystanders to becoming a force for transforming their societies.

Extant literature provides explanations as to why nonviolent campaigns are effective means of resistance. Little of the literature, however, comprehensively analyzes all known observations of nonviolent and violent insurgencies as analogous resistance types.

This study aims to fill this gap by systematically exploring the strategic effectiveness of violent and nonviolent campaigns in conflicts between nonstate and state actors using aggregate data on major nonviolent and violent resistance campaigns from 1900 to 2006.

To better understand the causal mechanisms driving these outcomes, we also compare our statistical findings with historical cases that have featured periods of both violent and nonviolent resistance.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE – INTERNATIONAL CENTER ON NONVIOLENT CONFLICT

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 26 Mar 2009.

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