The Division of Nigeria – Who Gains?
AFRICA, 13 Feb 2012
It is hard to believe, but the division of most populous African country has started; grounded by ethnic divides and external interference. The stages of war are being played out in the most economic strategic country in West Africa. The affairs of the Boko Haram is thrusting deeper into the structure of the country, the recent fuel hike pioneered by the IMF has created an eye opening effective ploy by western axis in a long run and shortened it in an unexpected catalyst reaction of the masses. Then the CIA prediction of the fate of the country is still on track. Nigeria has been shared on a political table; oil rich and non-oil rich.
Washington has played dumb in recent times, but at a closer look; they have played the most strategic role, an apocalyptic prediction of Nigeria’s future. Then we begin to ask question of why, the Nigerian SSS in the middle of the Occupy Nigeria protest decided to raid the office of CNN who were not even reporting on the protest. Then we must understand that the definition of media warfare which is being built underground. The army of journalist remains the most effective for setting a political agenda, rightly like Hearst responded: “You furnish the pictures and I’ll furnish the war.” Operation Unified Quest conducted in 2008 by the US military to ascertain response in time of a possible war in Africa, Nigeria mentioned clearly showed their readiness to control the south of Nigeria in case of any war. It is not a war for the people, is a war for oil, corporate greed and interest.
An in-depth analysis of war pattern, recently examined in the US shows that public approval for use of force depends on the case being made passing six ‘screens’ (Kay 2000):
• Rogue leaders
• Evidence tying them to heinous crime
• Non-military means exhausted
• Military allies (to share the risk and cost)
• A ‘visionary’ objective (e.g turn an enemy into an ally or bring long term peace to a region)
• Early non-military intervention tried in good faith, but confounded
The stage is set for the show down. This pattern must not play out as it seems in the other dictatorship regimes in Africa, why? The Nigerian government is democratically elected government. But by removing the fuel subsidy at the advice of the IMF, then the leaders has proved themselves to be rouges, evidence of their mismanagement published in every media source, information hidden from the common man is now known to the common man. The international communities have enough evidence of Nigerian corruption; a country that that cannot manage their resources and gives false and misleading figures of oil revenue, and even in a national television. According to a report from Boston world news, they stated that corruption cost Nigeria 40% of oil wealth, 100,000 barrels said to be stolen per day. In as much as these facts are true, but throughout history, we have seen Washington covers more hideous sins of their installed dictators. The fact still remains that Nigeria is turning to the Russian and Iran for military hardware and nuclear technology is provocative, to worsen it all President Jonathan from the south has formally agreed that he is not in control of the country when he mentioned about the cabal behind the screen. This shows that the northern part of the country still controls a large chunk of the chessboard.
Evidence tying them to hideous crimes; we watched people hacked down by the Nigeria forces during the occupy Nigeria protest. Jonathan didn’t waste any time in giving the shoot order, several Nigerians lost their lives. But their blood is ticking in his head like a clock. They plan to fulfill their prophecy is playing according to their cards. Jonathan slowly dances to the tune of the slow Mozart requiem, dancing closer to the end of the Nation with his prided best of Nigerian cabinet; thinkers and plunders.
The Boko Haram has taken the center stage in Nigerian conflict, progressing attacks and intensifying targets, how they got sophisticated still puzzles Nigerian government. Do we all believe that Boko Haram is still an amateur sect trying to progress a sharia cause? They have gone beyond that, they now have the ability to unleash mayhem in any part of Nigeria. That’s frightening and proves the Nigeria security incompetent and not able to handle security situation in their borders, soon the only option will be a foreign intervention. Yes, they can’t watch Nigeria die in hundreds in a situation; a possible scenario is the takeover of the southern path of Nigeria in other to save the whole Nigeria from a possible genocide not to have another Rwanda in Africa, authorizing all possible measure to protect civilians.
But the deepening question remains; how did Boko Haram transform into a professional terror squad? Who is supplying arms? How are the arms entering the shores of Nigeria? These questions I cannot answer and still remains a puzzle. Recently a close police source reported to the media, that the sects are better armed than them. Believe it or not, the evidence is embedded in the aftermath of their attack, a situation that the Nigerian government cannot control effectively.
Forecasting the future of the sect seems fair in this analysis, seeing through their rise and a possible fall. Since the sect has is currently operating in intelligence definitely higher than that of the security system in Nigeria. Then the Nigerian government needs to rethink their position, an influx of soldiers is not intelligence. Intelligence is wit and tactics, stronger position and more resolute decisions, a cleanup of the system and an understanding of what you are battling against; ideology not sect.
All said, there is gross in incompetence by the government, even by hearing doesn’t affect policies, they choose to wallow in challenges of power and who is in control instead of solving the economic and social problems. The apocalyptic prediction of the fate of the nation becomes a clear reality, widening and approaching. The political game has begun; failed leadership, failed management of resources, failed security system. One day we will have no option but a foreign intervention, then like meat, Nigeria will be torn apart by vultures.
The war for oil, war for control, a base in West Africa, expansion of AFRICOM, definitely Washington is on that part.
Chika Onyenezi is a student at European Peace University, author of Sea Lavender.
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 13 Feb 2012.
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