Boosting COVID Clarity
DEBATES ON COVID - VACCINES, 24 Jul 2023
July 2023 – New insights into excess mortality, COVID vaccines, vaccine passports, and COVID origins.
Excess mortality still driven by COVID
Many Western and Asian countries continue to see significant excess mortality; in fact, quite a few countries saw more excess mortality in 2022 and 2023 – after mass vaccination and the emergence of the milder omicron variant – than in 2020 and 2021.
Covid vaccine supporters and public health officials rarely mention this inconvenient fact; they would like people to believe that vaccines ended the pandemic, as the WHO proclaimed in May 2023. Some have even suggested excess mortality may be due to climate change.
In contrast, vaccine skeptics and covid skeptics argue this increase in mortality is because covid was mostly a hoax and the experimental covid vaccines keep killing people.
Yet both of these positions are incorrect. The evidence is clear that vaccines were effective in suppressing covid mortality and all-cause mortality in 2021, but that omicron achieved partial vaccine escape in 2022, and that ever since, excess mortality has been driven by multiple large omicron waves per year (see chart below).
These omicron waves are larger than most covid waves in 2020 and 2021, but because costly and mostly useless covid mass testing was stopped, they are no longer visible in official covid reporting data. They remain visible, however, in wastewater monitoring data.
The chart below shows weekly excess mortality in Switzerland and Germany, two neighboring European countries. One can readily see how in both countries, excess mortality curves run in parallel to each other and in parallel to covid and omicron waves. The effect of summer heat waves in 2020, 2021 and 2022 is also visible, especially in Germany.
Thus, instead of one or two flu waves in winter, elderly people have been faced with multiple flu-like covid waves per year, each of which may do them in, especially because of the rapid succession of immune-escaping omicron subvariants since 2022.
Recent Australian data shows that during the first three months of 2023, there was an excess mortality of 6% or 2,300 deaths. According to death certificates, just over half of these excess deaths were directly caused by covid, another 20% were linked to covid, while a quarter had no obvious link to covid (mostly diabetes and non-ischemic heart disease).
However, even these ostensible “non-covid deaths” ran in parallel to covid deaths and, for the most part, were likely caused by covid or post-covid conditions. It was previously shown that seasonal increases in heart deaths have always been driven by respiratory infections.
Nevertheless, a few percent of continued excess mortality might theoretically be due to long-term effects of covid vaccination. Previous studies found that covid vaccines killed about 1 in 100,000 people within one month, mostly due to cardiac arrest (mRNA vaccines like Pfizer and Moderna) and stroke (adenovector vaccines like AstraZeneca and J&J). Moreover, mRNA vaccines caused heart inflammation in about 1 in 1,000 young males. Several autopsy studies found that even post-vaccination deaths deemed “of natural cause” had in fact been caused by the vaccine.
The two big questions are: how will recognized vaccine injuries such as heart inflammation impact individual long-term health and life expectancy, and how widespread are unrecognized vaccine injuries, most notably cardiovascular injuries? Serious independent studies need to address both of these questions over the coming years.
Figure: Weekly excess mortality in Switzerland and Germany (OWID)
Birth rate decline driven by plunge in new marriages
In 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, birth rates were markedly lower than expected in many but not all Western and Asian countries. In fact, in 2022 there were over 100,000 “missing babies” in Europe alone.
Public health officials have not yet offered a good explanation for this stunning development. Some media outlets invoke climate change. Covid vaccine skeptics obviously believe it is due to vaccine-induced infertility, while lockdown skeptics suspect it must have been lockdowns.
Yet the vaccine hypothesis is contradicted by several high-vaccination countries without an unusual decline in births (such as France, Spain, Portugal, Italy, Israel, the US, and NZ), while the lockdown-only hypothesis is contradicted by Sweden, which saw a substantial decline in births.
Thus, the leading explanation for the decline in births, although hardly mentioned by anyone, likely remains the collapse in new marriages that occurred in 2020 (25% at the EU level, but up to 50% in some countries). The latest European data shows that there was a rebound in 2021, but marriage rates still remained at record low levels (see chart below).
At the national level, the impact of marriage rates on births is modulated by two additional factors: the rate of extramarital births (which ranges from 12% in Greece to 63% in France), and the average number of children per family (which ranges from 1.5 in Bulgaria to almost 3 in Israel).
Even in no-lockdown Sweden, the marriage rate crashed by 25% in 2020 compared to 2019, indicating that the cause wasn’t just the mostly useless lockdowns as such, but the general anxiety and uncertainty induced by authorities and the media. This would also explain why public health officials and the media prefer not discussing this important topic.
If covid vaccines play any role in the decline in births in 2022 and 2023, current evidence indicates that it isn’t due to sperm quality or stillbirths, but possibly due to an effect on conception or early spontaneous abortion (often unnoticed). An effect on the menstrual cycle and menstrual bleeding has already been confirmed by several studies.
Figure: Marriage rates in the European Union, 1964-2021
Excess mortality among working-age people
In 2022, EuroMomo data appeared to indicate that there was strong excess mortality among European children. Vaccine skeptics believed this was due to the deadly covid vaccine, while vaccine supporters believed it was due to deadly omicron infections in unvaccinated children. SPR revealed that it was simply due to a statistical EuroMomo baseline mistake, and EuroMomo acknowledged this a few weeks later.
In early 2023, the WHO and others calculated that no-lockdown Sweden had no cumulative excess mortality, which would have indicated that the pandemic was a total hoax and excess mortality was due to lockdowns – neither of which is true. Instead, excess mortality in Sweden, if calculated correctly, is similar to excess mortality in most other Western European countries – which is consistent with the fact that lockdowns were largely useless.
More recently, there were claims that countries like Germany and Austria had massive excess mortality among working-age males, while Sweden had no excess mortality among working-age males. This would indicate a suicide epidemic in repressive lockdown countries like Germany and Austria, but suicides did not in fact increase (except perhaps in young females).
Indeed, a careful mortality analysis shows that, once again, both claims are simply wrong: both Sweden and Germany have seen a moderate mortality increase in working-age males, and in both countries, it was driven by covid infections: in Sweden, this increase occurred already in the spring of 2020, while in Germany, infections and deaths increased more gradually (see chart below).
In contrast to senior citizens, vaccination does not appear to have had a visible impact on overall mortality in working-age citizens, although it is possible that there was an indirect impact by preventing a stronger mortality increase during the two delta waves in 2021 (as was seen in the US, for instance). Yet within a few months of vaccination, the omicron variant emerged – and vaccination, often chosen under de facto coercion and at significant health risks, became obsolete.
A more detailed analysis shows that the mortality increase occurred primarily in the 45 to 65 age group, while mortality in younger adults remained mostly normal, as one would expect. Furthermore, it is known that covid mortality among working-age people in Western countries was driven almost entirely by dark-skinned immigrants and obese citizens, a major taboo topic.
Nevertheless, since 2022, excess mortality among working-age people is in fact somewhat higher in Germany than in Sweden (see chart below). This could be due to two factors: one, the average age of the German population is much higher (48 vs. 41) and even the working-age population may skew older; and two, Germany, but not Sweden, has seen a strong increase in drug overdose deaths since 2019 (almost +50% or +600 deaths per year, average age 41, 80% male). These deaths have almost certainly been driven by economic and social effects of lockdowns.
Thus, once again, public health officials and most media prefer not discussing this topic, while covid skeptics and vaccine skeptics falsely believe excess mortality has been driven by vaccines.
Figure: Mortality in working-age males in Germany in Sweden (SPR/MW)
The US VAERS mystery solved
In 2021, many post-vaccination deaths were reported to the US vaccine adverse event reporting system VAERS. Some vaccine supporters claimed these were just hoax reports filed by vaccine skeptics, but this was never plausible. Nevertheless, at some point it became clear that reported post-vaccination deaths were not backed by excess mortality data.
The mystery has recently been solved: at least two thirds of reported post-vaccination deaths were in fact breakthrough covid infections mostly in elderly people. Doctors viewed these deaths as vaccine failure and, incorrectly, reported them as “adverse events” to VAERS.
Nevertheless, there is little doubt that severe non-lethal vaccine adverse events have been under-reported to VAERS and similar platforms. To study these often very tragic cases, see dedicated and serious channels such as Covid Vaccine Injuries and React-19. For young and healthy people up to about 40 years of age, covid vaccination should never have been recommended, let alone mandated.
New York mortality and ventilator deaths
In the spring of 2020, the US state of New York and especially New York City experienced a record excess mortality spike seen almost nowhere else in the Western world. Those still in doubt of covid lethality have to attribute this spike to other causes, and the obvious choice is ventilator deaths. In contrast, some unrepentant public health propagandists still claim early mechanical ventilation of covid patients, regardless of their actual health status, saved countless lives.
But once again, there is really no mystery here. By May 2020, after the first coronavirus wave, the total infection rate, measured by antibody studies, was about 20% in New York state and about 25% in New York City, reaching up to 30% in some boroughs. With the exception of Bergamo in Northern Italy (40%), this was by far the highest infection rate measured in any major city in the Western world at that time. And more infections means more deaths.
Early intubation was based on Chinese SARS-1 anti-aerosol protocols (adopted by the WHO), but it was never indicated from a medical and patient perspective, as SPR warned already in early April 2020. German lung specialist Dr. Thomas Voshaar recently called it one of the worst medical mistakes made during the covid pandemic.
Nevertheless, a 2021 meta-study involving a total of 9,000 patients found that early intubation was not a major driver of ICU mortality, though it may have increased mortality of covid ICU patients by about 10 to 20% compared to late intubation (i.e. as a last resort). Early intubation may also have increased the risk of super-infections and other complications. It simply wasn’t good medical practice, contributed to early covid panic, and was soon abandoned in most places. But it wasn’t a major driver of overall covid mortality.
When comparing covid mortality to 1918 flu mortality, as shown in the following graph, one should keep in mind that the average age of 1918 flu deaths was about 28, while the average age of covid deaths was about 80 (and even higher in Western Europe). Modern research indicates that even the 1918 flu wasn’t a particularly deadly virus (there was no unusual excess mortality in people over 65), but that young adults who were born between 1880 and 1900 had an aggravating immune reaction due to unfortunate antigenic priming by an earlier flu virus.
Figure: New York City mortality from 1804 to 2020 (NYT)
Vaccine passports and digital identity
Covid vaccine passports were an unmitigated disaster, and, based on early Israeli data, this was already known by June 2021, months before most countries introduced them. Nevertheless, most countries did introduce them regardless, following a global strategy announced as early as March 2020 by Bill Gates, a leading funder of the WHO, the vaccine industry, and the digital identity industry.
Despite the complete failure of covid vaccine passports, in late June 2023 the WHO announced its decision to adopt the EU vaccine passport system as the international standard for the WHO Global Digital Health Certification Network.
In 2021 SPR highlighted that all five WHO project managers developing the specifications of the international vaccine passport solution previously worked for the Gates Foundation or the Rockefeller Foundation, which together founded the Digital Identity Alliance and the ID2020 project that sees vaccination as “an entry point for digital identity”. In addition, the Gates foundation and the World Economic Forum sponsored the notorious Event 201 in NYC, which on the opening day of the Wuhan Military World Games simulated a global coronavirus pandemic.
Thus, it becomes apparent how some of the most powerful billionaire foundations and organizations, which might even serve as fronts of US intelligence (as they often did during the Cold War), have enlisted the WHO and other entities to advance and enforce their pre-conceived global biometric agenda. To this end, they leveraged a hyped global pandemic caused by an engineered virus that was released either accidentally or deliberately.
As one pandemic analyst put it: “Everything makes sense once you consider that vaccine passports are not here to stop the virus, but the virus is here to introduce vaccine passports.”
The introduction of digital biometric identity and payment systems is one of the most important global developments and, perhaps because of this, it is almost entirely ignored by establishment media. To follow the digital identity debate, see these independent authors and websites.
Coronavirus origins: three years of propaganda
In June 2023, the Office of the US Director of National Intelligence released its latest report on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, which once again acknowledged that the US has no evidence whatsoever that the virus was engineered at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or that WIV scientists were first to catch the virus (or indeed caught the virus at all in October/November 2019).
The bogus story of the “three sick WIV scientists” was first spread by D. Asher, who headed the coronavirus task force created by former CIA and State Department chief Mike “we lie, we cheat, we steal” Pompeo. Asher, who admitted he couldn’t verify the story himself, very likely got it from the anti-Chinese network run by Steve Bannon and exiled Chinese billionaire Miles Guo.
Tragically, even two independent US journalists of Twitter Files fame, hoping to land a global scoop, were tricked into amplifying the fake propaganda story. But ever since 2020, the main amplifiers were the very US journalists who previously boosted fake Iraqi WMD stories.
The reality is that for three years, US biodefense and intelligence strategists have pushed one fake covid origins story after another. While the Fauci group pushed the bogus natural origin story, the Kadlec-Pompeo-RAND group pushed the likely bogus WIV story. During all this time, adherents of the two bogus stories have been attacking and debunking each other on various platforms. Ultimately, not a single claim made by either side has stood up to scrutiny.
The DRASTIC research group has performed several important studies and investigations on SARS-2 origins, including a genomic analysis of Wuhan wastewater, but even DRASTIC couldn’t show that WIV researchers engineered viruses close to SARS-2 or that they ever performed the very specific type of genetic manipulation required to engineer SARS-2 from known coronaviruses in nature.
The fact of the matter is that the available genetic evidence points to a US origin of SARS-CoV-2, as SPR will show in detail in a later analysis. If this is the case, the virus was either accidentally released in the US, accidentally released in Wuhan (possibly by Western researchers working there), or deliberately released in Wuhan (e.g. during the Wuhan Military World Games) – not as a “bioweapon” to attack China, but to ignite a rather mild global pandemic as a biosecurity exercise, achieve strategic goals, and put the blame on China.
Figure: The novel Furin Cleavage Site (FCS) in SARS-CoV-2. (Bruttel)
An analysis 100% bot-free
Swiss Policy Research, founded in 2016, is an independent, nonpartisan and nonprofit research group investigating geopolitical propaganda in Swiss and international media. SPR is composed of independent academics that for personal and professional reasons prefer to protect their identities, and receives no external funding; there are no financial sponsors or backers. Our articles have been published or shared by numerous independent media outlets and journalists, among them Julian Assange, and have been translated into more than two dozen languages.
Tags: COVID-19, Coronavirus, Official Lies and Narratives, Pandemic, Research
DISCLAIMER: The statements, views and opinions expressed in pieces republished here are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of TMS. In accordance with title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. TMS has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is TMS endorsed or sponsored by the originator. “GO TO ORIGINAL” links are provided as a convenience to our readers and allow for verification of authenticity. However, as originating pages are often updated by their originating host sites, the versions posted may not match the versions our readers view when clicking the “GO TO ORIGINAL” links. This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
Join the discussion!
We welcome debate and dissent, but personal — ad hominem — attacks (on authors, other users or any individual), abuse and defamatory language will not be tolerated. Nor will we tolerate attempts to deliberately disrupt discussions. We aim to maintain an inviting space to focus on intelligent interactions and debates.
Click here to go to the current weekly digest or pick another article:
DEBATES ON COVID - VACCINES: