The Farce of the Ukrainian Ceasefire Continues

IN FOCUS, 12 May 2025

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

2 May 2025 — The United States and Ukraine signed a resource agreement, on 1 May 2025, that had been postponed since February. It is reported that the agreement is for Ukraine to hand over the rights to underground resources to the United States in return for the United States continuing to provide Ukraine with the US military support. It is also commented that the agreement shows Trump’s greed to devour Ukraine’s interests. （Seven takeaways from Ukraine minerals deal）

2. Trump was pressuring Zelensky to sign the resource agreement or he would not provide Ukraine with the US military support. Zelensky visited the United States in February to sign the agreement, but at the meeting he got into a hard argument with Trump and Vance. Trump, then, canceled the signing and kicked Zelensky out. Trump pressured Zelensky to sign the agreement, but actually Trump himself had no intention of signing it. The agreement seems like a “fake evil operation” to make Trump’s greed appear. (Sneak attack on Zelensky/ゼレンスキーを騙し討ち） [Ukraine signs economic deal with U.S. after pressure from Trump for continued aid]    [JD Vance says war in Ukraine ‘not going to end any time soon,’ hours after US signs minerals deal with Kyiv]
3. The Ukrainian government announced the resource agreement that was signed. Nothing is mentioned on the US military assistance to Ukraine in the text of the agreement. When the ceasefire is over and the country is to be rebuilt, the United States and Ukraine will pool their investment funds to develop Ukraine’s underground resources, from coal and oil to rare earths.  In that context, the United States is not exploiting Ukraine, but rather cooperating with Ukraine’s reconstruction.  In addition, the text mentions nothing about the repayment of the funds that have been provided, even though Trump initially requested.  So, it can be considered that there is no greed in that respect of the agreement either. However, the same agreement sets out the outline only, and the details are vague.  In this regard, the agreement has room for inviting some possible exploitation. （Agreement between….）  [US And Ukraine Sign Landmark Minerals Agreement. Here Are the Key Terms]   [US will no longer ‘fly around the world’ to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war]
4. Half of Ukraine’s underground resources, such as coal, are in Donbas and Crimea, which Russia occupied and annexed. Donbas has long been famous as a coal producing region. Crimea has confirmed the deposits of oil and gas.  Both Donbas and Crimea are considered to remain the Russian territory for the foreseeable future.  In fact, Trump himself has acknowledged that.  For the United States to participate in the resource development of Donbas and Crimea, an agreement with Russia, not with Ukraine, is necessary. Trump is (intentionally) mistaking the person he is pressuring for the agreement.  [In that regard, this agreement can be considered as a farce.]  Besides, the main focus of this agreement is said to be rare earths. There are many rare earth deposits in Ukraine that have not been seized by Russia, but they are hardly profitable.  As the result, many of Ukraine’s rare earths have remained untouched.  （US-Ukraine Minerals Deal: ‘Trojan Horse’ for Creating a  Frozen Conflict?） [Ukraine’s Critical Minerals Stir Global Power Plays-But U.S. Commercial Viability Faces Hard Limits]
5. In order to develop the natural resources, Ukraine needs a ceasefire and peace. Since it is no longer possible for Ukraine to defeat Russia, Ukraine has no choice but to make the concession and reach a ceasefire and peace. However, this resource agreement was signed in return for the United States continuing to provide Ukraine with the US military support.  This is because Zelensky is still willing to continue the War.  Therefore, he needs the US military support.  So in response to Trump’s pressure, Zelensky signed the resource agreement that is premised on the ceasefire.  Unfortunately [for Zelensky who wants to continue the War], the ceasefire is necessary for the resource development…  Therefore, also in that regard, the agreement can be considered as a farce.  （US-Ukraine resources deal: What we know so far）  [Trump’s minerals deal with Ukraine leaves scramble for how to handle Russia]
6. Trump has tried to gain the support of the American people by saying, “We will get the huge amount of aid that the United States has given to Ukraine spending the tax money in the form of resources.” Ukraine is in a state of war, so it is encouraging patriotism.  Besides, they do not want the United States to take away their national wealth, the rights to resources. There must be strong opposition to Zelensky, who is offering up the resources at Trump’s command, but if they do not push that aside and sign the agreement, they will not receive the US military aid from the United States. In February, Zelensky overcame the difficult situation and suppressed the domestic opposition to attend the signing ceremony, but he was picked a fight by the Trump camp, and he was kicked out.  He returned home without signing the agreement.  As such, Trump was taking measures to make fun of Zelensky and Ukraine. （Kremlin Reacts To Minerals Deal Signing: ‘Trump Has Broken The Zelensky Regime’）
7. This time, however, the postponed resource agreement was signed as last, just as the “Victory Day on 9 May”, which is the date on which the ceasefire in Ukraine was scheduled to come into effect after the discussions with Russia at the time of Trump’s inauguration, approached. But what does this actually mean? Let me explain about it as follows:  Zelensky’s Ukraine, by receiving the US military support, is still trying to continue the Ukraine War.   Ukraine refuses to recognize Donbas and Crimea as the Russian territory.   However, Russia and the United States are (ostensibly) strengthening their stance of wanting a ceasefire and peace of Ukraine.  At the end of April, Russia officially expelled the Ukrainian troops from Kursk, which had been the obstacle to the ceasefire and peace.  Russia also acknowledged that the North Korean military had helped it in the battle of Kursk, and praised North Korea. Russia has already incorporated Donbas and Crimea into its own country, achieving one of the purposes of its invasion of Ukraine (i.e. the Special Military Operation or “SMO”). The unity of the non-US sides, whose hidden goal of the Ukraine War has been “to make the world multipolarized“, has also been strengthened.  Meanwhile, Trump’s high tariff policy has also accelerated the decline of the dollar’s key position (i.e. the US economic hegemony).  The occurrence of the US financial [US dollar] collapse is a matter of time.  (Despite that, some Japanese people are still holding NISA without realizing it). [→ See “AI Summary on the relationship between NISA and the potential collapse of the dollar”.]   While Trump’s policy is implemented as such, Russia has almost completed in achieving its goals of the “SMO” in Ukraine.  So, it is about time for Russia to have a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine. （Schiff: The Bounce Is Just A Bear Market Rally） [Does Donald Trump’s trade war mean the end of dollar dominance?]     [Trump took the US economy to the brink of a crisis in just 100 days]    [Why Is The US Dollar Weakening? Trump’s Tariffs Push Dollar Index To 3-Year Low.]    [The U.S. dollar is losing its status as a safe haven thanks to Trump’s tariffs. What does that mean for investors?]    [US exit from IMF would be true dollar shock]
8. Trump also keeps telling, “I want to end this meaningless war in Ukraine as soon as possible.” Unfortunately, the Ukraine War cannot be ended easily.  This is because the UK, France, Germany, the EU, and Canada (i.e. the new Carney administration, which is belligerent and hostile to Trump) want to support Zelensky and continue the War until Russia is defeated. (That is how Trump argues in pretense, however.)  By using the intention of these countries as such, Trump wants to make an excuse that “The US wants to ceasefire and bring about peace to Ukraine, but the UK, France, Germany, the EU, and Canada (i.e. those countries that have been under the umbrella of the British influence) are belligerent and insist that they will fight until Russia is defeated. That is why we cannot have the ceasefire.”   Behind the scenes, on the contrary, Trump is urging the UK, France, Germany, and the EU, telling them, “If you want to prop up Ukraine, do it quickly!  If the UK and France are going to send the troops to Ukraine, do it quickly!  Otherwise, the US and Russia will proceed with the ceasefire!”  (Trump has not quit NATO, because he is urging these countries like that.) （Signs Final Trump-Brokered Minerals Deal, Giving US Preferential Access To Resources） [If Trump abandons Ukraine, can Europe help Kyiv fight on? The clock is ticking to answer that]   [Carney underscores Canada’s commitment to Ukraine]
9. If the UK, France, Germany and the EU seriously enter the Ukraine War, their self-destruction will accelerate ever more. Both Trump and Putin think that it would be better for the UK, France, Germany and the EU to seriously enter the Ukraine War and destroy themselves.  Rather, if it can be more precisely to state it, it may be stated that the UK, France, Germany and the EU will probably not seriously enter the Ukraine War in the end.  If they did, their participation in the War would surely bring about catastrophic consequences to themselves. （Ukraine’s Western backers struggling to muster troops）  [Limitations of Liberalism on Display with Ukraine Crisis]    [If Trump abandons Ukraine, can Europe help Kyiv fight on?]
10. While the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and the EU hesitate to enter the Ukraine War, the peoples of these countries become more averse to the existing militant elites (i.e. totalitarian liberals), causing the elite parties to lose in the elections and putting pro-Russian rightists such as the AfD in Germany and Marine Le Pen in France in power. The British elite rule that has dominated the Western Europe (the US and Europe until last year) will destroy itself militarily or politically. This [rise of such far-right political power] also indicates the self-destruction of Anglo-American hegemony.   This, it can be understood, has been one of the very main purposes of the Ukraine War since the beginning of the War in 2022. (The strategy to make only the UK and Europe view Russia as the enemy/英欧だけに露敵視させる策略）[Europe is being transformed into a new stronghold of liberal totalitarianism]    [The Root of Totalitarian Trends in Liberal Democracy?]    [Strengthening Liberal Totalitarianism]    [Le Pen family]
11. If the liberal elite governments of the UK, France, Germany, and the EU, all of which have been the last power of the Anglo-American hegemony, are overthrown and replaced by the non-British right-wing governments, the on-going process of the multipolarization of the world will be completed. The world order, then, will become multipolarized, and the world itself will become stable.  (By that time, the new Abraham Accords regime will also be established in the Middle East.)   Nonetheless, the reason why the Ukraine War is not ending is because the overthrow of the governments of the UK, France, Germany, and the EU has not progressed.  However, apart from the Ukraine War, the downfall of Europe is triggering by implementing “global warming countermeasures” that promote a super foolish power source conversion based on unfounded anthropogenic theories, for example.  (The COVID-19 city closures also caused Europe to self-destruct.)  Recently, in Spain and Portugal, the super foolish policy of switching to solar and wind power generation has been rushed, resulting in large-scale power outages and major chaos that required a state of emergency declaration.  This implies that “the plan to self-destruct Europe through global warming countermeasures” is progressively and smoothly being implemented. （The Spanish Power Outage: A Catastrophe Created By Political Design & A Warning To The World） [Europe’s Self Destruction]  [Germany’s New Chancellor Merz Vows Continued Support for Ukraine]     [“Global Warming” Is a Really Stupid Issue]    [Europe’s Self-Destruction: Ukraine, Elites, and the Death of Democracy]    [Is Europe Choosing to Self-Destruct?]   [Creative Self-Destruction and the Climate]
12. Putin’s Russia ceased fighting in Ukraine for 2-3 days each on the Easter Sunday, 20 April 2025, and the “Victory Day, 9 May” 2025. [Also see. → “Zelensky threatens Ukraine will strike Putin’s beloved “9 May Victory Day” parade… despite Vlad declaring 3 day ceasefire” and  “Putin humiliated as cities cancel Victory Day events en masse after Ukraine drone attacks”]    That is because the schedule for the Ukraine ceasefire decided by the United States and Russia when Trump took office was (i) to begin the ceasefire negotiations in earnest by the Easter, and (ii) to realize the ceasefire by the Victory Day.  Actually, however, the ceasefire did not progress because it was the plan to force the Western Europe to take the lead in the Ukraine War and cause them to self-destruct.  Putin established this symbolic ceasefire only for 2-3 days each, which was too short for the Ukrainian army to rebuild themselves.  If the ceasefire lasted more than a week, the Ukrainian army would intensify its counterattacks, causing serious damages to the Russian army. So, that explains why the ceasefire was set only for 2-3 days. (Trump embarks on a ceasefire in Ukraine/ウクライナ停戦に乗り出すトランプ） [The US-Russian Strategy for the Ukraine Ceasefire]    [If Ukraine loses war, it will be ‘end of Western hegemony’, warns UK’s Boris Johnson]    [BRICS Overtake G7 According To The IMF: Is It The End Of Western Hegemony?]
13. Trump and Putin are taking measures to make the UK and the EU self-destructed in the Ukraine War, while two of them are promoting measures to stabilize and strengthen the non-US side. Take North Korea, for example.  Trump nowadays has begun to say that he wants to meet with Kim Jong Un again.   Meanwhile, Putin announced and praised the North Korean military’s achievements at Kursk and revealed that Russia was teaching North Korea the latest military technology.  Trump will meet with Kim Jong Un one day in due course.  He will work also with Russia and China to resume the dialogue between South Korea and North Korea.   While Europe is destroying itself, the rest of the world is becoming to be stabilized.    （White House preparing for possible Trump-Kim talks）（First Video Showing Russian Instructors Training North Korean Troops）  [What Russia’s Support Means for North Korea’s Nuclear Modernization]    [Europe’s Path to War and Self-Destruction]     [The End of an Era: America’s Waning Hegemony in a Multipolar World]   [Trump admin reportedly laying groundwork for summit with North Korea]   [How South Korea’s next president can end the impasse with North Korea]    [Russia supports US-North Korea dialogue, envoy says]    [China as a Mediator in North Korea]    [How will South Korea navigate US-China competition in 2025?]

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Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader. In addition, the numbers, such as (1), (2), (3), (i), (ii), (iii) or (a), (b), (c), and bold and/or italic letters were also used in the translation by the translator for the same reason.
2. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
3. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Transcend Media Service (TMS) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
5. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English. 

Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese:  続くウクライナ停戦の茶番劇

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 12 May 2025.

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