The Middle East Is Making a Major Shift from War to Peace

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 14 Jul 2025

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

28 June 2025 – Taking advantage of the fact that the war with Iran has come to an end, US President Trump is trying to expand and to fully implement the Abraham Accords, which reconcile and normalize the diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Islamic countries with Israel. Since last year, Israel has neutralized the Iranian forces (Hezbollah and Assad) in Lebanon and Syria one after another.  This time, it has attacked Iran itself to weaken its military power. Israel is pushing its arch enemy Iran into the corner in order to make Israel itself the hegemonic power in the Middle East in a world that has turned multipolar after the decline of the US hegemony. （Witkoff: We will have big announcements on countries coming into the Abraham Accords） [Is Israel the new hegemon in the Middle East?]

02.     The Islamist and liberal alternative media claim that Iran has won this time and that Israel is in a difficult position, but this is a mistaken delusion. Perhaps Israel is spreading distorted information to pretend to have lost, as it did when it reconciled with Egypt in the 1970s, as a preparation for reconciliation with Iran. (Liberals also credulously believe the media’s lies that Russia was defeated in the Ukraine War. They are easily fooled and credulous about the man-made global warming theory and the exaggeration of the coronavirus. Intellectuals are stupid.)  （Khamenei’s fantasy world: Speech shows a supreme leader detached from reality）

3. In order to show that they can freely control Trump’s America, Israel had Trump attack Iran’s nuclear facilities with a deep-seated weapon called a bunker buster, which Israel does not have. Putin criticized the United States and Israel, but did not provide military support to Iran. The reason is that “Israel is a country of almost Russian descents, with many Russian speakers who immigrated from the former Soviet Union.” Putin is pro-Israel, and his criticism is only lip service. This time, no country is willing to seriously oppose Israel, which is flaunting its military and political power. （Putin’s surprising reason for not providing war aid to Iran: ‘Israel is almost a Russian-speaking country’） [Russians in Israel] [How One Million Russian Immigrants Revitalized Israel]    [Russian Jews Are Still Coming to Israel]    [Russian Jewish Immigration and its Effect on the State of Israel]

   04.     Seeing this situation, Saudi Arabia, which must decide its relationship with Israel (conflict or compromise and reconciliation) before the multipolarization of the world progresses and it can no longer rely on the United States, is backing away from its previous statement that it would not formally reconcile with Israel unless Israel stops destroying the Palestinian state and shifts to supporting its establishment. It seems that Saudi Arabia (the powerful Crown Prince MbS) has made some concessions and decided to enter into the Abraham Accords and normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, even if the Palestinian state remains dysfunctional, once Israel and Hamas ceasefire and the Gaza War ends. Trump’s Middle East envoy Witkoff and Netanyahu have suggested so.  (Will Israel Continue to Attack Iran until the International Community Approves the Eradication of Palestine?)   [What Is a Multipolar World? Understanding the Shifting Global Order]

4. Israel says it will allow a ceasefire if Hamas releases all remaining hostages and Hamas leaders (and other Gaza citizens) defect (emigrate?) to a third country and stop their activities in Gaza. If Hamas accepts this condition, Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords. （Netanyahu interested in meeting Trump in coming weeks, sources tell ‘Post’） [Trump to Host Netanyahu Amid Gaza Ceasefire Push and Hostage Talks]

   06. If Saudi Arabia joins, Islamic countries such as Indonesia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Niger, Mali, and Djibouti will also join the Abraham Accords. Even if Saudi Arabia does not join, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Syria (HTS regime) are likely to join the agreement. Lebanon, where Hezbollah was crushed and the government has become pro-American, may also join (it is unclear because public opinion is extremely anti-Israel).（Netanyahu says victory opens path to expand Abraham Accords）

   07.     Trump is also moving forward with talks on reconciliation with Iran. Trump was working on reconciliation with Iran even before he was forced to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities at Israel’s request, and returned to the reconciliation path after the attack. Iran is angry at Trump for going back and forth between peace and war for his own convenience. In order to appease Iran, Trump has said, “Since Iran’s nuclear facilities have been destroyed and it can no longer produce enriched uranium, we can reconcile without entering into a nuclear agreement.” （US Reportedly Mulls Easing Iran Sanctions, Assisting Non-Enrichment Nuclear Program）

   08.     Once he has reconciled with Iran, Trump is trying to get Iran to reconcile with Israel and enter into the Abraham Accords. It seems impossible that Iran and Israel, who were at fierce war until last week, will reconcile. However, it is also true that it would be better to reconcile to some extent with the mediation of the United States now, before the world shifts to a multipolar world. If the US administration returns to the Democratic Party, which continues to pursue the illusion of sole hegemony, instead of the multipolar Trump administration, they will no longer be able to mediate like this time. Now is the time for reconciliation between Israel, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. （Trump says US will meet with Iran next week, asserts nuke deal ‘no longer necessary’）

5. The original reason for this Iran War was that when Trump, with the cooperation of Israel, returned to power, fending off his enemies (British) in the upper echelons of the US (Intelligence Community), and tried to promote multipolarity by helping the non-US side, Israel not only accepted the position of hegemony in the Middle East (one of the hegemonies), but also offered the condition of erasing the Palestinian issue that had been imposed by the British, and reducing the power of its sworn enemy, Iran.（Netanyahu decided on Iran war last year, then sought to recruit Trump） [Trump could threaten to withhold intelligence from UK, security sources warn] [Trump could test intelligence sharing ties between the US and its allies]   [Trump sues ex-British spy over dossier containing ‘shocking and scandalous claims’]    [MI5 admits it ‘misled’ High Court over alleged abusive Security Service informant]

   10.     It is unclear how much of Iran’s power Israel wants to reduce, but with this ceasefire with Iran, Netanyahu has declared that his goal has been achieved, and he also supports the expansion of the Abraham Accords that Trump wants. Once reconciliation is reached, it is not a good idea to attack Iran again (because it will be difficult to reconcile again). I believe that Israel thinks that it has sufficiently reduced Iran’s power (although in a recent article I wrote that it may even try to overthrow the regime). (Iran and Israel: The Meaning of the Current Ceasefire for These Countries/イランとイスラエル 停戦の意味)

6. The erasure of Palestine still remains in the West Bank and the PA (i.e. the Palestinian Authorities). However, if Saudi Arabia or Indonesia joins the Abraham Accords, it means that the Arab and Islamic countries have significantly reduced their attachment to Palestine. Even if Israel continues to eradicate Palestine, many Arab and Islamic countries will no longer view Israel as their enemy. Palestine could be abandoned, but the Middle East could become stable as reconciliation between the major powers is established.  Likewise, Taiwan might also be abandoned by the United States, reconciliations could begin between South Korea and North Korea, and Japan will be allowed to maintain its dependence on the United States, while Trump’s (and Rockefeller’s) goal of world stability through the multipolarization of the world order will be achieved. (Israel Bombs Iran for Middle East “Stability”)   [Donald Trump’s multipolar diplomacy]    [How Trump can navigate the new multi-polar world]   [The age of multipolarization]    [Will Trump abandon Taiwan?]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
3. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
4. One or a few supplementary words, phrases or sentences in Italic letters without underlines in brackets [ ] were added to show the original author’s message in some contexts or sentences clearer where deemed necessary, while the essential meaning in the message was retained, neither modified nor changed at all. 
5. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Transcend Media Service (TMS) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
6. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English. 

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Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: 中東が戦争から和平に大転換

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 14 Jul 2025.

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