The Closing Doors for Netanyahu: Exit Strategies, Legal Reckoning, and Geopolitical Ripples

PALESTINE ISRAEL GAZA GENOCIDE, 22 Sep 2025

Diran Noubar – TRANSCEND Media Service

20 Sep 2025 – In the wake of a high-profile fundraising concert at London’s OVO Arena Wembley on 17 Sep 2025, dubbed “Together for Palestine,” the international spotlight has intensified on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Organized by musician Brian Eno and featuring over 80 artists and celebrities—including Damon Albarn, Paloma Faith, and guest speakers like Richard Gere—the event raised funds for Gaza aid while delivering sharp criticisms of Netanyahu’s policies.   Gere notably declared that “Netanyahu has to go,” echoing a growing chorus of global condemnation amid the ongoing Gaza conflict.

Netanyahu’s Potential Exit Doors: Resignation, Exile, or Defiance?

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, faces mounting challenges that could force him out of power. Domestically, his coalition government has been fragile, with public support for the Gaza war waning and protests demanding hostage releases and an end to the conflict.  Analysts suggest possible exit strategies include:

• Resignation or Coalition Collapse: Netanyahu could step down amid political pressure, similar to past Israeli leaders facing scandals. However, he has shown resilience, using the war to bolster his position.  A no-confidence vote or coalition defection remains plausible, especially if military setbacks or economic strains intensify.
• Exile or Safe Haven: If facing arrest abroad due to ICC warrants, Netanyahu might seek refuge in allied nations. Hungary, which withdrew from the ICC in June 2025 following Netanyahu’s visit, could be an option.  The U.S., under Trump, has imposed sanctions on ICC officials to protect Israeli leaders, potentially offering de facto protection.
• Defiant Continuation: Netanyahu’s vision for Israel’s future—a “super-Sparta” of militarized self-sufficiency—suggests he may dig in, expanding operations in Gaza despite international backlash.   This approach prioritizes long-term control over Gaza, rejecting ceasefires unless Hamas disarms and releases hostages.

Critics argue these paths are limited by his unyielding stance, which has prolonged the war for political survival.

Will Netanyahu Face Judgment in Israel or the ICC?

The question of accountability looms large. The ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza, including starvation as a method of warfare.  Israel challenged the warrants, requesting their withdrawal in May 2025, arguing lack of jurisdiction.   As of September 2025, the warrants remain active, but enforcement is uneven—some ICC members like Italy have signaled they would arrest Netanyahu if he enters their territory.

Domestically, Netanyahu faces corruption trials in Israel, but no formal charges for war crimes. His government has rejected ICC authority, and public support for the war—though divided—makes a domestic trial unlikely without a major political shift.  Experts note that while the ICC represents international justice, realpolitik (e.g., U.S. opposition) could delay or prevent extradition.   A trial at The Hague seems more probable if he loses power and travels abroad, but Israel’s non-membership in the ICC complicates matters.

Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize: Dimming Prospects Amid Putin and Israel Stances?

President Trump has openly campaigned for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, citing efforts to broker peace in Ukraine and Gaza.   Nominations, backed by leaders like Netanyahu, highlight his role in potential deals.  However, challenges arise:

• Refusing Putin’s Conditions: Trump’s planned meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska aimed at ending the Ukraine war, but stalled negotiations—where Putin demands territorial concessions—could derail peace.   If Trump rejects these, as Ukraine urges, it might prolong the conflict, harming his prize chances.
• Not Abandoning Israel: Trump’s staunch support for Israel, including backing Netanyahu, contrasts with Nobel ideals of multilateralism.   Critics argue that failing to pressure Israel for a Gaza ceasefire could undermine his “peacemaker” image, especially if violence escalates.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has stated it won’t be swayed by Trump’s self-promotion, emphasizing lasting peace over short-term deals.  His prospects appear dimmer if these fronts falter, though supporters like Steve Witkoff continue advocating.

Gaza Death Toll: Official vs. Unofficial Estimates

Official figures from Gaza’s Health Ministry, as of mid-September 2025, report over 65,000 Palestinians killed and 165,000 injured since October 2023.   These are based on hospital and morgue records, excluding many indirect deaths from famine, disease, or inaccessible bodies.

Unofficial estimates, incorporating these factors, are significantly higher. A July 2025 DW analysis suggested over 80,000 total deaths by early 2025, including indirect causes.  Other reports cite 68,000 direct deaths, but independent assessments—like those from The Lancet or humanitarian groups—estimate 100,000 to 300,000 when factoring in starvation (361 confirmed malnutrition deaths by September 2025) and unrecovered bodies.     Access restrictions for foreign media inflate discrepancies, with some X posts claiming over 150,000 or even 400,000, though these lack verification.

Does Netanyahu Know He Has No Future?

Netanyahu’s actions suggest awareness of his vulnerability, yet defiance persists. He has rejected claims of prolonging the war for personal gain, citing hostages and U.S. influence as factors.  His “super-Sparta” plan envisions an isolated, militarized Israel, indicating preparation for a post-leadership era of entrenchment.  Political analysts describe his future as “uncertain,” tied to war outcomes and coalition stability.   While he may not publicly admit it, escalating global isolation—exemplified by the Wembley event—signals diminishing options.

A Precarious Path Ahead

The Wembley concert symbolizes broadening opposition to Netanyahu, amplifying calls for accountability. His exit remains speculative, with ICC trials more likely than domestic ones, though geopolitics may shield him. For Trump, unyielding stances on Putin and Israel could jeopardize Nobel ambitions. Gaza’s toll, officially 65,000+ but unofficially far higher, underscores the human cost. In a truth-seeking lens, these intertwined issues highlight the need for balanced diplomacy to avert further escalation, benefiting all parties in pursuit of lasting peace.

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Diran Noubar, an Italian-Armenian born in France, has lived in 11 countries until he moved to Armenia. He is a world-renowned, critically-acclaimed documentary filmmaker and war reporter. Starting in the early 2000’s in New York City, Diran produced and directed over 20 full-length documentary films. He is also a singer/songwriter and guitarist in his own band and runs a nonprofit charity organization, wearemenia.org.

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This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 22 Sep 2025.

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