Putin and Pashinyan: A Tumultuous Alliance Marked by Risk and Paradox
IN FOCUS, 12 May 2025
Diran Noubar – TRANSCEND Media Service
When Nikol Pashinyan swept into power in May 2018 on the crest of Armenia’s Velvet Revolution, his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi set an optimistic tone. Pashinyan, a former journalist turned revolutionary, pledged to deepen Armenia’s strategic alliance with Russia, a commitment Putin welcomed as a continuation of their nations’ centuries-old bond. Yet, from 2018 to today, March 29, 2025, this relationship has unraveled into a saga of mistrust, high-stakes gambles, and staggering losses—most notably Artsakh and threats to Siunik—driven by Pashinyan’s audacious pivot away from Moscow. The opposition decries these choices as hazardous, trading Armenia’s security for untested Western partnerships, while a paradoxical surge in Russo-Armenian trade underscores the absurdity of their fractured ties.
Early Promises and a Fragile Harmony (2018–2020)
Pashinyan’s initial years saw frequent engagements with Putin—three meetings in 2018 alone—aimed at reassuring Moscow that Armenia’s revolutionary fervor wouldn’t disrupt their alliance. At the May 2018 Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) summit, Pashinyan vowed to strengthen military and economic ties, a stance Putin reciprocated by affirming Armenia’s role as a key regional ally. Russia’s military base in Gyumri and its role as Armenia’s top arms supplier remained pillars of this partnership. Trade flourished, with bilateral exchanges rising from $1.7 billion in 2018 to $2.1 billion by 2020, driven by Armenian exports like brandy and agricultural goods and Russian energy supplies.
But beneath the surface, tensions brewed. Pashinyan’s liberal leanings and his government’s pro-Western voices clashed with Moscow’s expectations of unwavering loyalty. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war exposed the first cracks: Azerbaijan, backed by Turkey, overwhelmed Armenian forces, and Russia’s peacekeepers arrived only after a devastating ceasefire brokered by Putin on November 9.The opposition accuses Pashinyan of miscalculating Russia’s willingness to intervene, a risk that cost Artsakh dearly as Azerbaijan reclaimed swathes of territory, displacing thousands.
A Dangerous Pivot and the Fall of Artsakh (2021–2023)
The post-war period marked Pashinyan’s boldest shift. Meetings with Putin—like the April 2022 summit in Moscow—maintained a veneer of cooperation, with joint statements touting trade and security ties. Yet, Pashinyan’s actions told a different story. Frustrated by Russia’s restrained response to Azerbaijan’s aggression, he began courting the West. In 2022, Armenia hosted U.S. military drills, and by 2023, Pashinyan suspended participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led alliance, after it failed to aid Armenia during border clashes with Azerbaijan. His September 2023 ratification of the Rome Statute, aligning Armenia with the International Criminal Court (ICC)—which issued an arrest warrant for Putin—ignited Kremlin fury.
These gambles came at a catastrophic price. In September 2023, Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive seized all of Artsakh, ending its decades-long Armenian control and forcing over 100,000 refugees into Armenia proper. The opposition blames Pashinyan’s Western flirtations for alienating Russia, whose peacekeepers stood by as Artsakh fell. Siunik, Armenia’s southern province, now faces heightened risks, with Azerbaijan eyeing the Zangezur corridor to link with Turkey—a move that could sever Armenia’s border with Iran. Pashinyan’s new partnerships with the U.S., France, and India offered no tangible defense, leaving Armenia exposed to Baku’s ambitions.
Hazardous Choices and Western Illusions (2024–2025)
By 2024, Pashinyan’s rift with Putin widened. His full withdrawal from the CSTO in mid-2024 and a March 13, 2025, peace treaty with Azerbaijan—ceding Artsakh’s legal claim—drew sharp rebukes from Moscow. Putin, meeting Pashinyan at the October 2024 CIS Summit, maintained a diplomatic facade, but Kremlin rhetoric branded Armenia’s Western shift as a betrayal. Pashinyan’s hazardous choices—joint drills with NATO, a draft EU accession bill in January 2025, and arms deals with France—promised security but delivered little. The opposition scorns these moves as delusions, noting the West’s failure to deter Azerbaijan’s February 2025 border incursion, which killed four Armenian soldiers near Siunik.
Russia, distracted by Ukraine, couldn’t—or wouldn’t—fill the void. Yet, Pashinyan’s insistence on diversifying alliances has left Armenia juggling unproven partners against a backdrop of regional volatility. The opposition warns that Siunik’s fate hangs in the balance, with Azerbaijan’s aggression unchecked and Russia’s protective umbrella discarded for Western applause that offers no troops or guarantees.
The Paradox of Booming Trade
Amid this political frost, Russo-Armenian trade has soared to bewildering heights. By 2024, bilateral commerce hit $7.2 billion—a 300% leap since 2018—fueled by Armenia’s role as a sanctions-evading hub for Russian goods post-Ukraine war. Exports of Armenian fruits, vegetables, and textiles to Russia doubled, while imports of Russian gas, oil, and machinery surged. In 2025, the EAEU framework, despite Armenia’s CSTO exit, facilitated record trade volumes, with Armenia’s GDP growth pegged at 6.5%—much of it tied to Russian markets. Meetings like the January 2025 Putin-Pashinyan call on EAEU energy integration underscored this economic lifeline.
This boom is a paradox the opposition can’t reconcile. How can Armenia thrive commercially with Russia while Pashinyan dismantles their strategic bond? Critics argue it’s a hollow victory—economic gains dwarfed by the loss of Artsakh and the peril to Siunik. Russia’s economic leverage, they say, mocks Pashinyan’s defiance, proving Armenia’s dependence endures even as political trust collapses.
A Relationship on the Brink
As of March 29, 2025, Putin and Pashinyan’s relationship is a shadow of its 2018 promise. Pashinyan’s high-risk foreign policy—abandoning Russia for untested Western ties—has cost Armenia dearly, with Artsakh gone and Siunik vulnerable. His hazardous partnerships have yielded rhetoric, not results, while Azerbaijan’s aggression looms unchecked. Yet, the thriving trade with Russia stands as a baffling counterpoint, a lifeline that mocks the rift between Yerevan and Moscow. For the opposition, this paradox is Pashinyan’s ultimate failure: a leader who gambled Armenia’s security for fleeting gains, leaving the nation richer in trade but poorer in sovereignty—and dangerously adrift.
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Diran Noubar, an Italian-Armenian born in France, has lived in 11 countries until he moved to Armenia. He is a world-renowned, critically-acclaimed documentary filmmaker and war reporter. Starting in the early 2000’s in New York City, Diran produced and directed over 20 full-length documentary films. He is also a singer/songwriter and guitarist in his own band and runs a nonprofit charity organization, wearemenia.org.
Tags: Armenia, Putin, Russia, West
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 12 May 2025.
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