Iran and Israel: The Meaning of the Current Ceasefire for These Countries

MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, 7 Jul 2025

Sakai Tanaka - TRANSCEND Media Service

25 Jun 2025 – After US President Trump launched the missile attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities with the bunker busters and other weapons on 22 June 2025, he announced that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire on 24 June, bringing the current war to a close. （Shaky Israel-Iran Ceasefire Appears To Hold After Trump Tells Israel To Stop the Bombing）

2. On 25 June 2025, Iran resumed the commercial flights to its country for the first time in 12 days since the start of the war. Israel seized the air superiority over Iran on the fifth day of the war. On the other hand, Iran, which had lost the air superiority, was in a military crisis. This time, Iran resumed the airspace because Israel agreed to the ceasefire and decided not to attack Iran. This ceasefire is a confirmed reality. （Iran Reopens Airspace To Commercial Flights As Ceasefire With Israel Finally Holds）
3. Will Israel no longer attack Iran? On 24 June 2025, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that (a) Israel had destroyed all the Iranian military and nuclear facilities, that (b) the goal of Israel’s military operation (which is called ‘Rising Lion’) against Iran had been achieved, and that (c) he had agreed to Trump’s proposed ceasefire with Iran. If Israel intended to continue to attack Iran and even overthrow the government (this time, the ceasefire was agreed at Trump’s request, but it will attack further in the future), it would not be said that the goal was achieved.（Netanyahu: Israel agreed to ceasefire with Iran after achieving all war goals）
4. Or was the announcement of the goal achievement a diversion to lull Iran into the false sense of security? In recent years, Israel has continued to fail analysts’ predictions, so it is difficult for me to take a definitive view. However, it is believed that at least Netanyahu conveyed his message on the goal of Israel to Trump. Given the credibility issues between Trump and Netanyahu, Israel is unlikely to launch additional attacks on Iran for the time being. （“They Don’t Know What The F**K They’re Doing” – Furious Trump Slams Israel As Fragile Ceasefire Crumbles）
5. Looking at the long-term trend, in the quarter century since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Israel has been destroying Islamic countries in the Middle East one after another that could be threats to Israel. In 2003, Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was destroyed by the US under the G.W. Bush administration, where Israeli neoconservatives had infiltrated policy-making. The next US president, Obama, tried to take back control of the Middle East, which had been dominated by Israeli forces, but Israel launched the “Arab Spring” in counterattack, destroying Gaddafi’s Libya and putting it into a state of the permanent civil war.
6. Israel also tried to overthrow the Assad regime in Syria during the Arab Spring, but Obama asked Russia and Iran to protect Assad. However, this also happened as the Democratic Party of Obama and Biden weakened. Then, Trump returned to the US presidency to cooperate with Israel and to promote the multipolarization of hegemony in the world order. Last autumn of 2024, the Al-Qaeda-affiliated HTS, which Israel had supported, overthrew the Assad regime. As the result, the collapse of the Assad regime made Syria Israel’s puppet state. Currently in the Middle East, only Iran and Turkey have the power to oppose Israel. Other Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, have no power or no desire to oppose Israel.  Even the UAE and Saudi Arabia wish to join the forces with Israel.
7. Given that trend, it would not be surprising if Israel attacks Iran until it destroys Iran’s Islamic regime. If Israel wants to become a hegemonic power in the Middle East, it will wait for the United States to leave NATO after destroying Iran, and then overthrow the Erdogan regime in Turkey. Until now, however, because Turkey is a member of NATO, the UK and Europe have not allowed Israel to destroy Turkey.
8. However, by the time Putin ends the Ukraine War, the US might have departed from NATO, and the UK and Europe will have also been completely weakened. If that happens, the possibility of Israel overthrowing Turkey and neutralizing it will increase. It has been a special skill for Israel to subvert those regimes that oppose Israel since the days of the medieval court Jews. Erdogan does not want to be crushed by Israel, so he is not seriously opposed to the Gaza War. Israel imports much of its oil through a pipeline that runs from Azerbaijan through Turkey, and if Turkey closes the pipeline, it will result in sanctions against Israel. However, Erdogan has not done so, and has not stopped other exports to Israel. （Turkish Public Increasingly Worried About Direct Conflict With Israel）
9. The “hidden multipolarists (i.e. the multipolar factions)” in the US upper echelons, such as Trump and the Rockefeller faction, intend to destroy the US hegemony and transform the structure of international politics into a multipolar one. Israel (not the old British puppet Labor Party faction, but the anti-British Likud faction) wants to seize the hegemony in the Middle East in the future multipolar world. With this mutual goal in mind, the multipolar factions and the Likud faction have been working together since the assassination of Rabin and 9/11. Since Israel is the origin of the intelligence communities, the Likud faction has pushed aside the British faction, which has been operating hegemony by plagiarizing Jewish intelligence since the British Empire, and has actually taken over the US Intelligence Community since 9/11 (i.e. the Likud faction and the multipolar faction caused the 9/11 terrorist attacks as the trigger for all that, as mentioned in this paragraph).
10. Trump has emerged as the person who is to create the climax of this trend. Trump wants to be friendly with those countries that will become the poles in the future multipolar world, such as Russia, China, and India. He must also be discussing global strategies with the Chinese Communist Party under the guise of trade negotiations. The talk that the US and China are about to go to war is 100% a diversion. Trump must also want to talk to Iran. However, if Israel wants to destroy Iran, there is no other way. In the multipolar world, the principle is not to interfere in the important affairs of other poles. The (apparent) rule that humanitarianism takes precedence globally, as in the old Anglo-American hegemonic system, is secondary.
11. Iran is a multi-ethnic nation, but it has a unity and cohesion that dates back to the ancient Persian Empire. Unlike Syria (where the Assad family was the head of the Alawite sect, which was the security force during the French colonial period) and Libya, which are artificial nations created by the UK and France, Iran has a strong national foundation, making it difficult to overthrow the government or turn it into a permanent civil war. However, Israel can use its intelligence to do amazing things. If Israel wants to overthrow Iran, they will try various things stubbornly. Since the US is no longer the sole hegemon in the world order, Trump has no choice but to let Israel do it.
12. Despite that, Israel has stated that it will not destroy Iran any further (for the time being). Why? There seems to be a reason. I speculate that it is related to the plan to eliminate Palestine and expel Gaza citizens, which I wrote about before. Israel expects to receive the return for not destroying the current Iranian regime, Iran could pressure Hamas and move to allow Gaza citizens to sneak out in large numbers to Egypt through the loophole that Israel created in the Philadelphia Corridor without preventing it? Or, although it is a pretense, Iran could pressure Hamas to return all the hostages (including the bodies). Nevertheless, if that were to happen, the war would have to end with the citizens of Gaza remaining, and Palestine would not be eliminated. That is not the wish of the Israeli upper echelons. (Israel Continues to Attack Iran Until the International Community Approves the Eradication of Palestine?)   [What do we know about Israel’s own nuclear weapons?]    [Nuclear Disarmament Israel]    [US air strikes failed to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites, sources say]   [Iranian Nuclear Program Damaged, Not ‘Obliterated’ by U.S. Attack]
13. Although currently the important points of the Gaza War are completely unclear, I believe that Hamas is stopping the Gazans from leaving for Egypt (by shooting those who try to cross the border, for example), and since Israel is not allowing aid supplies in, the citizens are starving to death. Israel thought that if it completely destroyed the Gaza city, most of the Gazans would flee to Egypt, so it took over the Philadelphia Corridor, which is the border between Egypt and Gaza, from Egypt to create a loophole. (All of these views are my speculation.)
14. It is estimated that 300,000 to 500,000 Gazans have crossed the border into Egypt so far (an article a few months after the Gaza War started estimated 250,000). Nonetheless, actually few information is available on where those Gazans who entered Egypt are currently living or how they are doing now. Is Egypt hiding it?  If so, it is also Israel’s hope (since Egypt is pretty much at the mercy of Israel). If most of the citizens flee to Egypt and Gaza is emptied, Israel can declare the end of the Gaza War and the elimination of Gaza. However, a considerable number of the Gazan citizens still remain in Gaza, so the War is dragging on now. Most of the citizens prioritize avoiding starvation and death by explosion over the Palestinian cause.  Unfortunately, they cannot cross the border because Hamas is blocking them.
15. The Israeli personnel have infiltrated Hamas. Israel should have been able to predict in advance that Hamas would prevent the Gazan citizens from crossing the border and prolong the Gaza War, but perhaps the former Labor Party (British) forces within Israel were feeding distorted information to put Netanyahu in a difficult position? However, all that is nothing but my speculation. In any case, Netanyahu seems to be in trouble because he cannot complete the Gaza War. All what has remained for him to do is to wait for most of the Gaza citizens to starve to death.
16. At this point, it is possible to bring in Iran, which has long supported Hamas, and have them pressure Hamas, although it is unclear whether this will be effective. Iran had to abandon both Hezbollah and Assad after losing to Israel. It is unclear whether Hamas will listen to the message from Iran which is now significantly weaken. Israel might try to push Iran to do something about that, and then go back to trying to destroy Iran again after it has completed the eradication of Gaza. Or if Israel pushes Iran to do something about it, if that doesn’t work, and if most of the Gaza citizens starve to death, and if this starvation will bring about the end of the War to Gaza, then, Israel might go back to trying to destroy Iran again.  [Israeli plan to occupy all of Gaza could open the door for annexation of the West Bank]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
3. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
4. One or a few supplementary words, phrases or sentences in Italic letters without underlines in brackets [ ] were added to show the original author’s message in some contexts or sentences clearer where deemed necessary, while the essential meaning in the message was retained, neither modified nor changed at all. 
5. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of Transcend Media Service (TMS) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
6. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English. 

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Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese: イランとイスラエル 停戦の意味

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 7 Jul 2025.

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