What Happened to Last Year’s Predictions?

TRANSCEND MEMBERS, 5 Jan 2026

David Adams | Transition to a Culture of Peace – TRANSCEND Media Service

1 Jan 2026 – One year ago I devoted this blog to predictions related to the idea that human history must pass through an apocalypse before it can move forward to peace and human rights.  Today, I want to inquire what has happened to these predictions.

1. The rejection of “business-as-usual” capitalist democracy that led to victories such as Trump in the United States has continued in 2025, especially in Latin America with the election of right-wing presidents in Chile and Honduras, joining one already elected in Argentina.  But voter dissatisfaction, instead of ending capitalist democracy, has instead made it more extreme.

How should this paradox be explained?  I submit that it is another example of the historical trend that I identified in the conclusion of my <a href=”https://www.culture-of-peace.info/books/history/summary-2.html“>History of the Culture of War</a>:  the principle arm of the culture of war has become the control of information.  And, indeed, we see an acceleration in the control of the mass media by billionaires.  Their mass media succeeds in convincing voters to choose right-wing demagogues instead of traditional liberal candidates or socialist alternatives.  In so doing, they increase government purchases of armaments, thus increasing the profits of their class of factory-owners.

In other parts of the world, capitalist democracy has been replaced in important countries by authoritarian regimes that rule without free elections.  This is the case in China, Russia, North Korea and Turkey.

2. Is there an increase in failed states?  Sudan is the most striking example, but there is increased uncontrolled violence in many countries.  There continue to be predictions of civil war in the United States as President Trump sows discord.  In general, however, the system of nation-states remains in control.  But what will happen if there is a global economic crash?

3. Is the US dollar crashing?  Not yet, but more and more every day there are articles saying that is weakening and many countries are changing their investments to avoid dependence on the dollar.  The recent surge in value of gold and silver may be seen as a similar change in investment strategy.  The forces opposing the dollar continue to mount, especially the budget deficit of the United States caused by its unprecedented investment in the military-industrial complex, an investment that fails to meet the needs of its citizens.

4. Is there an increase in warfare?  Trump has increased his attacks (Venezuela, Nigeria) and <a href=”https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2025/12/29/all-the-countries-israel-attacked-in-2025-animated-map”>Israel attacked 6 countries in 2025</a>?  If not an increase, there is no decrease in the terrible war in Ukraine, Israeli genocide, Sudan civil war and other armed conflicts.  And the risk of nuclear war seems greater than ever.

5. Is cryptocurrency a bubble that is going to burst?  Again, there are articles every day by economists warning of this, but despite wild swings in value, cryptocurrencies continue to attract investments.  It has been explained that they are the favored investments for organized crime since the funding operations cannot be traced.

All five of these negative trends have the potential to crash, and since they are all inter-related, a crash of one can lead to the crash of the others.

Will this happen in 2026?

There is no way to predict with certainty.

Will it eventually happen?

From what we know from history, it seems likely.

When the crash comes, will we be ready to take advantage of the window of opportunity to create a better world?

The causes of a crash are not in our control, but preparation to create a better world is in our hands.  It is this preparation that should be the priority of our thinking and our actions.

As explained in the most recent CPNN article, we are trying to contribute to this with the new <a href=”https://english.cpnn-world.org/?p=37452“> Peace Manifesto</a>

_________________________________________________

Dr. David Adams is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment and coordinator of the Culture of Peace News Network. He retired in 2001 from UNESCO where he was the Director of the Unit for the UN International Year for the Culture of Peace.  Previously, at Yale and Wesleyan Universities, he was a specialist on the brain mechanisms of aggressive behavior, the history of the culture of war, and the psychology of peace activists, and he helped to develop and publicize the Seville Statement on Violence. Send him an email.

Go to Original – decade-culture-of-peace.org

Share this article: email mastodon facebook 🔗 copy link

DISCLAIMER: The statements, views and opinions expressed in pieces republished here are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of TMS. In accordance with title 17 U.S.C. section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. TMS has no affiliation whatsoever with the originator of this article nor is TMS endorsed or sponsored by the originator. “GO TO ORIGINAL” links are provided as a convenience to our readers and allow for verification of authenticity. However, as originating pages are often updated by their originating host sites, the versions posted may not match the versions our readers view when clicking the “GO TO ORIGINAL” links. This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a ‘fair use’ of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more information go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond ‘fair use’, you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.

There are no comments so far.