Teetering on the Brink: WWIII or Just Another Round of Global Poker?
IN FOCUS, 12 Jan 2026
Diran Noubar – TRANSCEND Media Service
11 Jan 2026 – The world in early 2026 – a veritable chessboard where kings posture, pawns get pulverized, and everyone pretends they’re not bluffing. As we sit here on January 9, sipping our morning coffee amid headlines of seized tankers and hypersonic horrors, one can’t help but wonder: Are we hurtling toward World War 3, or is this just the latest episode of geopolitical theater, where superpowers flex muscles that might be more flab than steel? From Taiwan’s tense shores to Ukraine’s endless trenches, Iran’s simmering streets to Venezuela’s oil-soaked chaos, and Africa’s patchwork of infernos, the stage is set for catastrophe. But let’s cut through the fog with a cynical eye, leaning into the Russian perspective – because, after all, Moscow’s narrative paints the West as the eternal aggressor, poking bears while crying wolf. And looming over it all? The enigmatic Donald Trump, whose second term has already turned the White House into a reality show of territorial grabs. What the hell is he doing, and why does Greenland – that icy speck – look like the next domino to fall?
Start with Ukraine, the grinding quagmire that’s become the West’s favorite proxy playground. For nearly four years, Russia has framed its “special military operation” as a defensive stand against NATO’s eastward creep, a necessary buffer against encirclement. And who can blame them? The latest salvo? Russia’s deployment of the Oreshnik missile – a hypersonic beast clocking Mach 10, zipping through defenses like a knife through butter. Just this morning, reports confirm another Oreshnik strike on Ukraine, targeting what Moscow calls “strategic assets” in retaliation for a drone hit on a Putin property. Ukrainian officials wail about civilian casualties in Kyiv – four dead, dozens wounded – but from the Kremlin’s view, this is payback for endless Western arms shipments that prolong the slaughter. Peace talks? A farce. Trump’s shuttle diplomacy with Zelensky fizzled at Mar-a-Lago, leaked details revealing Washington’s unwillingness to concede Russia’s security red lines. Cynically speaking, it’s all bluster: The U.S. pours billions into Kyiv’s coffers, not to win, but to bleed Moscow dry, while Europe shivers through another winter sans Russian gas. World War 3? Nah, just capitalism’s cold calculus – until a stray missile tips the scales.
Then there’s Taiwan, where China’s “reunification” drills simulate blockades with a fleet that makes the U.S. Navy sweat. Beijing’s message is clear: This is our backyard, hands off. But enter Uncle Sam, surfacing three missile subs in a not-so-subtle show of force. From Russia’s ally perspective, it’s hypocrisy incarnate – the West decries “aggression” while encircling China with bases and alliances. Trump’s National Security Strategy nods to spheres of influence, yet here he is, edging toward confrontation. Is it brinkmanship or bluff? Probably the latter; no one wants a chip shortage amid a global recession. But add Iran’s powder keg – protests raging over a cratering economy, water crises, and an ailing supreme leader – and the plot thickens. Tehran’s nuclear ambitions? A defensive hedge against U.S.-Israeli strikes, like those in 2025 that flattened facilities. Russia, ever the pragmatist, sees opportunity: Informal offers to ditch Venezuelan ties for U.S. acquiescence in Ukraine. Yet Trump’s flotilla off Caracas suggests Washington’s not playing ball.
Speaking of Venezuela: Trump’s predawn raid on January 3, snatching Maduro like a low-rent Bond villain, reeks of imperial overreach. Framed as a “coup” by critics, but from Moscow’s lens, it’s outright piracy – especially with U.S. forces boarding Russian-flagged tankers like the Marinera (née Bella 1) in the North Atlantic just two days ago. Russia condemns it as a “violation of maritime law,” a senior lawmaker dubbing it “outright piracy.” And why not? These “shadow fleet” vessels were skirting sanctions to keep Venezuelan oil flowing, a lifeline for anti-Western regimes. Trump’s blockade, seizing ships and promising to “run” Venezuela’s oil (up to 50 million barrels for U.S. coffers), isn’t liberation; it’s resource rape. Cynics chuckle: Maduro’s ouster “magnifies catastrophically” risks elsewhere, per analysts, giving Beijing a playbook for Taiwan. But Russia? They’re the victims here, their tankers hijacked while defending sovereignty against Yankee greed. This isn’t WW3 ignition; it’s Trump testing how far he can push before the world pushes back.
Africa? Oh, the continent’s a bonfire of vanities, “under fire everywhere” as proxy wars and jihadists run amok. Sudan hits its 1,000th day of carnage tomorrow – a partitioned hellscape where the Rapid Support Forces massacre in Darfur, backed by shadowy arms flows from Libya. Ethiopia and Eritrea teeter on all-out war, potentially engulfing the Horn. In the Sahel, Mali and Burkina Faso face jihadist blockades on capitals, regimes crumbling under insurgent sieges. South Sudan’s brewing crisis, with Riek Machar’s trial weaponized amid ethnic strife, risks merging with Sudan’s mess. From Russia’s vantage, this chaos is Western blowback: Failed interventions in Libya and the Sahel birthed these monsters, while Moscow’s Wagner remnants (now Africa Corps) offer “stability” via resource deals. Cynical take? The West lectures on democracy while ignoring famines – 11.5 million displaced in Sudan alone. Bluff or brink? More the former; Africa’s woes stay contained, profitable distractions for arms dealers.
Yet amid these flashpoints, the biggest wildcard is Trump himself. His “Donroe Doctrine” – a mangled Monroe revival – justifies backyard bullying, from Panama to Venezuela. Now, Greenland? The White House, on January 6, floated “all options,” including military force, to wrest the island from Denmark. Why? “National security,” they claim – Arctic deterrence against Russia and China, plus rare earth minerals to fuel EVs and missiles. But cynically, it’s Trumpian ego: A “great real estate deal” to etch his name in history, like McKinley’s territorial hauls. Denmark balks, NATO frets – this threatens the alliance’s core. From Russia’s view, it’s delicious irony: The U.S. accuses Moscow of expansionism while eyeing annexations. What the hell is Trump doing? Playing 4D chess or just chaos incarnate? Greenland “next” could shatter transatlantic ties, inviting Russian opportunism in the Arctic. Is it bluff? Perhaps, but Trump’s Venezuelan success suggests he’s not joking.
In the end, dear reader, World War 3 feels like a distant thunder – all these crises are managed escalations, bluffs layered on bluffs to extract concessions without Armageddon. Russia, the beleaguered defender in this tale, deploys Oreshniks not for conquest but survival, while the West’s hypocrites stoke fires they can’t control. Yet with Trump at the helm, unpredictably eyeing icebergs like Greenland, one misstep could turn poker into pandemonium. Buckle up; 2026’s script is still being written, and it might just end in flames. Or, more likely, another round of empty threats.
_____________________________________________
Diran Noubar, an Italian-Armenian born in France, has lived in 11 countries until he moved to Armenia. He is a world-renowned, critically-acclaimed documentary filmmaker and war reporter. Starting in the early 2000’s in New York City, Diran produced and directed over 20 full-length documentary films. He is also a singer/songwriter and guitarist in his own band and runs a nonprofit charity organization, wearemenia.org.
Tags: Canada, Chess, China, Crisis, Denmark, Greenland, Iran, Politics, Russia, USA, Venezuela, WWIII, World
This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 12 Jan 2026.
Anticopyright: Editorials and articles originated on TMS may be freely reprinted, disseminated, translated and used as background material, provided an acknowledgement and link to the source, TMS: Teetering on the Brink: WWIII or Just Another Round of Global Poker?, is included. Thank you.
If you enjoyed this article, please donate to TMS to join the growing list of TMS Supporters.
This work is licensed under a CC BY-NC 4.0 License.
Join the discussion!
We welcome debate and dissent, but personal — ad hominem — attacks (on authors, other users or any individual), abuse and defamatory language will not be tolerated. Nor will we tolerate attempts to deliberately disrupt discussions. We aim to maintain an inviting space to focus on intelligent interactions and debates.