The Ukraine War Will End with Ukraine Going Back to Be “Pro-Russia”

BALKANS AND EASTERN EUROPE, 25 Aug 2025

Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service

19 Aug 2025 – The longer the Ukraine War continues, the more the United Kingdom, which has been the driving force behind the US hegemony, and its Western European puppets (collectively referred to as the “British-affiliated countries”) will self-destruct in both political and economic terms.

Therefore, I have analyzed that Trump and Putin, who want to destroy the existing US hegemony and shift the world to a multipolar structure, claim to want to end the Ukraine War quickly, but in reality intend to prolong it. I also viewed the US-Russia summit in Alaska on 15 August 2025 along these lines. However, looking at the behavior of Trump and Zelensky after their 18 August visit to the US and discussions with Trump by a large group of the European leaders, including those from the UK, France, Germany, and Italy, it seems that my analysis of the US-Russia summit was incorrect. (The Significance of Holding a US-Russia Summit Now)

2. Zelensky considers his own political and biological survival to be his top priority. Trump and Putin have been plotting to prolong the Ukraine War, but this time they have made a major shift in policy. They have agreed to invite Zelensky to stay in power, in exchange for Zelensky acknowledging that Donbas and Crimea have become the Russian territory, and in return for the security guarantees (for himself and his country) from Russia and other countries, thus ending the Ukraine War. From now on, to ensure Ukraine’s post-war security, a new multipolar international organization will be created, centered around the UN P5 (the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France). This new multipolar organization will provide Ukraine with security, rather than the Cold War-style NATO (which views Russia as their enemy). Russia will be the leader of this new organization. In short, post-war Ukraine will return to Russia’s umbrella. Zelensky will remain in his role as the post-war Ukrainian president for the time being. （Europe Demands ‘Security Guarantees’ For Ukraine … Russia Can Give Those）（Putin has agreed to ‘security guarantees’ for Ukraine – Trump）[Trump touts Zelensky-Putin meeting and Western security guarantees. Moscow says, ‘not yet’ and ‘nyet’] [Trump to Urge Zelenskyy to Give Up Crimea to End War]    [Map Shows Ukraine’s Rare Earth Minerals That Putin Wants To Sell to Trump]    [How rich is Donbas? The Ukrainian coal and mineral hub that Putin wants to end the war]   [Foreign powers have long profited from Ukrainian resources – Trump’s minerals grab is no exception]    [The Mineral Wars – How Ukraine’s Critical Minerals Will Fuel Future Geopolitical Rivalries]
3. While these details have not yet been announced, hints of this are emerging here and there. The leaders have stated that “Ukraine will not join NATO, but Ukraine will receive the security guarantees similar to NATO’s Article 5.” It has also been reported that the main topic of the 18 August meeting between Trump, Zelensky, and others was how to provide security for Ukraine after the War ends. （‘Security guarantees’ take center stage at White House meetings）（Zelensky White House meeting today could spell end of the war） [Collective defence – Article 5 – NATO]
4. The idea of creating a new organization to guarantee Ukraine’s security was already included in the Istanbul Agreement, which was proposed by Russia at the end of March 2022, one month after the outbreak of war, and which Ukraine initially agreed to but then rejected due to British interference. （Main Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine’s Security Guarantees (Istanbul Communiqué) (2022)）
5. Trump and Macron have said that a three-way meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky will take place within the next few weeks. It’s reported that Trump left his meeting with Zelensky and others to call Putin for 40 minutes to discuss when and where the meeting would take place. （EU, US expect Putin-Zelensky meeting to take place soon）（Trump puts European leaders on hold to talk with Putin）
6. Russia has said it wants to upgrade the Istanbul negotiations with Ukraine, which have been held intermittently since the outbreak of the War, and use them as a framework for future trilateral talks. Rather than Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meeting suddenly, the Istanbul negotiations may resume first, with working-level talks between Russia and Ukraine held to finalize the outline, before a summit meeting. （Trump interrupts Ukraine talks with European leaders to call Putin）
7. Zelensky has met with Trump several times since his return to the presidency, but he said the meeting on 18 August 2025 was the best. Perhaps Zelensky had informally suggested to Trump that he wanted to end the War by returning Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of influence, but Trump and Putin ignored this, wanting to continue the Ukraine war until the UK and Europe had further self-destructed. （Zelensky hails ‘best’ meeting with Trump） [Whatever Happened to Ukraine’s Pro-Russians?]    [Did you know Ukrainian territory under Russian control is as big as these countries? Areas and size, explained]     [Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine]
8. Since his re-election, Trump has been working to pull the US out of the Ukraine War and transition to a situation in which only the British-affiliated European nations, such as the UK, France, Germany, and the EU, continue to support Ukraine and antagonize Russia. The UK and Europe are unwilling and unable to shoulder the Ukraine War alone, as they would face financial and economic collapse. Trump, despite the opposition from the UK and Europe, steadfastly pushed ahead with the withdrawal of the US from the “Ukraine War and Anglo-Europeanization”. On 15 August 2025, he unilaterally invited Putin to Alaska and formed a coalition. Suddenly, a US-Russia cooperative system emerged at the center of the world. (Establishment of a US-Russia cooperative system/米露協調体制の確立）
9. Trump presented Zelensky, the UK, and the EU with his own plan to end the war, incorporating all of Putin’s demands to bring about the end to the Ukraine War. These proposals include the official annexation of Donbas and Crimea to Russia, the demilitarization and neutralization of Ukraine (what Russia calls “denazification”), and the granting of security to Ukraine through a Russia-led multipolar international organization. [Russia sees victory as Trump adopts Putin’s approach to ending Ukraine war]     [The 20th-Century History Behind Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine]      [Trump Keeps Defending Russia]       [Trump Russia Ties: The Connections Hiding in Plain Sight]     [Trump’s Russian connections span 30 years from Gorbachev to Putin]    [Business projects of Donald Trump in Russia]    [Trump Won’t Betray Putin After 40 Years of Russian Money]     [Trump-Russia Business Ties and Financial Dealings]
10. Trump presented Zelensky, the UK, and Europe with a choice: end the War in line with this plan, or reject it and continue the war with Russia without the US (continuing to buy expensive weapons from the US) (leading to financial ruin for the UK and Europe, with the US providing intelligence support). Without the US, the UK and Europe could not win. The UK, Europe, and Zelensky chose to accept Trump’s plan and end the War. （An Offer He Can’t Refuse） [Adult Supervision From Europe Gone, Trump Reverts To Blaming Ukraine For Getting Invaded]
11. British Prime Minister Starmer, while accompanying Zelensky to the US, has been reported in Russia to have instructed Zelensky on how to deal with Trump. Has the UK now agreed to Ukraine returning to Russia’s control? Or perhaps Britain itself was strongly opposed to the plan, but other European countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, accepted Trump’s plan, so Britain was forced to agree to it in order to avoid isolation? （Starmer instructed Zelensky how to behave around Trump）
12. In fact, Starmer had no choice. Only three months after taking office, Starmer’s approval ratings are steadily declining, leading to calls for an early general election in the UK. As the result of the Likud (anti-British) Intelligence Community radicalizing the British leftists and the Islamists (i.e. Islamic immigrants) and furthering the destruction of society, it has been pointed out that the UK is on the brink of a civil war between grassroots right-wingers and left-wing Islamic extremists. The UK itself no longer has the capacity to support Ukraine without the US and continue to be hostile to Russia. （British Army Colonel: Civil War Is Coming） [Why is Muslim immigration such a huge issue in UK?] [Islam in the United Kingdom]      [UK riots: Why are far-right groups attacking immigrants and Muslims?]     [Israeli Intelligence Community]
13. Since gaining independence from the Soviet Union at the end of the Cold War, Ukraine has oscillated between pro-Russia and pro-Western (British-affiliated countries) positions. This time, Ukraine made a huge sacrifice in its pro-Western move (not a decision made by Ukrainians, but led by the British-affiliated members who overthrew the government), but failed, and now it is returning to the pro-Russian direction. Ukraine would be better off under Russia than under British control. This may be incomprehensible to the “careless British puppets” who make up the majority of the Japanese population. (US-Russia Dialogue and Japan/米露対話と日本）[‘The Englands of East and West’: Britain and Japan, Empire and Race, 1894–1904]   [The Anglo-Japanese Style: A Fusion of East and West]    [Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms]

Notes:

1. The hyperlinks with the parentheses ( ) at the end of some paragraphs were added by the original author. Those hyperlinks in the paragraphs and those with brackets [ ], with the italic letters at the end of some paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
2. The views and/or opinions in those hyperlinks added by the translator do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for the translator to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all.
3. The paragraph number was added to the head of each paragraph (except to that of the first paragraph) by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
4. One or a few supplementary words, phrases or sentences in Italic letters without underlines in brackets [ ] were added to show the original author’s message in some contexts or sentences clearer where deemed necessary, while the essential meaning in the message was retained, neither modified nor changed at all. 
5. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, who is the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the Transcend Media Service (TMS) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
6. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English. 

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Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News  Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com

Satoshi Ashikaga is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment. Having worked as researcher, development program/project officer, legal protection/humanitarian assistance officer, human rights monitor-negotiator, managing-editor, and more, he prefers a peaceful and prudent life.  His previous work experiences, including those in war zones and war-torn zones, constantly remind him of the invaluableness of peace.

Translation: Satoshi Ashikaga – Google Translate

Original in Japanese:  ウクライナが親露に転向して終戦する

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 25 Aug 2025.

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