US and China Approaching Military Standoff in the South China Sea as Obama Fights for Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

ASIA--PACIFIC, 18 May 2015

Ian Ralby – TRANSCEND Media Service

The security situation in the vital Pacific basin trade route is escalating rapidly at the same time that tensions are rising in Washington over Obama’s Pacific trade pact.

15 May 2015 – Tensions are high in Washington, DC as President Barack Obama continues to struggle, even with his own party, to clear the hurdles of establishing a Trans-Pacific Partnership Free Trade Agreement – a controversial deal which he sees as the cornerstone of his legacy, and the realization of his grand strategy of pivoting to Asia. Tensions are even higher, however, in the South China Sea, as the Obama Administration is considering sending military aircraft and vessels within close range of artificial islands created by the Chinese. The initial response from Beijing suggests that the situation is likely to escalate further, raising serious concerns about the security of one of the vital maritime trade routes in the Pacific basin.

President Obama has articulated few grand strategic objectives beyond the notion of pivoting to the Pacific. Consequently, he has a heavy personal investment in seeing the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) proceed, as evinced by his own efforts in recent days to get both the Democrats and Republicans to agree to the extensive trade pact. Beyond concerns about the actual impact of the agreement on smaller businesses, human rights and the environment, opponents are particularly concerned with the time-frame of negotiations. There will be several rounds ahead that will likely correspond to some of the busiest points of the election campaign – a period notoriously bad for political cooperation. So the TPP may yet fail for political reasons. But it may fail for practical security reasons as well.

For several years, China has been at the epicenter of a multi-state dispute concerning territorial claims in the South China Sea. While China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei all have competing interests in the Spratly and Parcel Islands, China has also been engaged in a large-scale construction project to build new artificial islands. If China successfully claims those islands as sovereign territory – its clear objective – and establishes maritime legal boundaries around them, it could effectively create a continuous maritime zone across the entire South China Sea. It would then be in a position to enforce its unique interpretation of maritime law, whereby it would able to prevent the passage of all foreign military craft – air and sea – through the region.

The United States, which takes the lead on protecting shipping corridors throughout the region, understandably finds China’s position and approach untenable. The U.S., however, is not a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), somewhat complicating its articulated stance that the states in the region should use the UNCLOS judicial institutions to resolve the situation. Yet it seems that, with the TPP agreement in sight and with Chinese construction efforts increasing, the Obama Administration feels it needs to take a more active stance against Chinese efforts. Given the value of what is at stake – militarily, politically, and economically – neither the U.S. nor China is likely to back down without the situation reaching something of a climax. And given the Pentagon’s announcement that it will actively disregard the Chinese territorial claims by transiting military craft through what Beijing is claiming as territorial waters around its new islands, the U.S. seems determined to assert its military supremacy. With so many interested players and so many variables in the mix, this is a situation that is even more volatile than it perhaps looks.

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Dr. Ian Ralby is Founder and Executive Director of I.R. Consilium through which he provides legally-grounded policy advice and assistance to governments and organizations, often on matters relating to security. He has worked extensively with governments in West Africa, the Caribbean, and the Balkans among others and is considered an expert in matters relating to private security, maritime law and maritime security. He holds a BA in Modern Languages and Linguistics and an MA in Intercultural Communication from the University of Maryland, Baltimore County; a JD from William & Mary Law School; and both an MPhil in International Relations and a PhD in Politics and International Studies from the University of Cambridge.

 

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 18 May 2015.

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