Conflict Trends: A Global Overview 1946–2025

ANALYSIS, 15 Jun 2026

Siri Aas Rustad | Peace Research Institute Oslo PRIO - TRANSCEND Media Service

Peace Research Institute Oslo – Founder: Johan Galtung

Executive summary

State-based conflict

 In 2025, the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) reported that approximately 245,000 individuals were killed in battle-related deaths. This was the third most violent year in the post–Cold War era.

Three conflicts drove this trend: the Russian invasion of Ukraine; the violence in Sudan, including the massacre in El Fasher; and the bombardments of Gaza.

In 2025, the UCDP recorded the highest number of state-based conflicts since 1946, with 65 conflicts, 6 more than ever previously recorded,

with approximately 153,000 battle deaths – surpassed only in 2021, 2022 and 2024. This indicates a persistently high level of state-based violence, with the past five years accounting for more battle-related deaths than the entire twenty-year period prior to 2021.

In 2025, 65 conflicts were recorded in 35 countries – an increase from 2024 in both the number of state-based conflicts and the number of countries experiencing them.

Notably, the gap between the number of conflicts and the number of conflict countries has increased over the past decade, indicating a rise in countries hosting multiple simultaneous conflicts, such as Myanmar with five civil conflicts, and Israel with two civil conflicts and three international conflicts. In addition, a number of countries host more than three conflicts, such as Afghanistan, Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria and Pakistan. Only 16 out of the 35 conflict countries have only one conflict. This trend points to a growing complexity in conflict dynamics with more actors involved, which has important implications for how we analyze and respond to conflict.

Furthermore, interstate conflicts – conflicts between states – have increased substantially. In 2025 we saw eight international conflicts, a doubling since 2024 and the highest recorded since 1946.

This is a very concerning trend, and we see several latent border conflicts having become violent, reflecting the current growing global tensions. There has also been a regional escalation in the Middle East, increasing the risk of a large multi-country conflict in the region. This trend has continued in 2026 with the USA–Iran war.

Non-state conflict

There were 75 non-state conflicts in 2025, which represents a slight decrease from the 79 non-state conflicts reported in 2024.

Many of the non-state conflicts are low intensity, affecting the volatility in numbers of conflicts from year to year, since many of these conflicts only flare up occasionally. The number of battle-related deaths from such conflicts was approximately 14,500 in 2025, representing a downward trend since 2020. Particularly, we saw a decrease in lethal violence between Mexican drug cartels. Despite this, the number of non-state conflict battle-related deaths has stabilized at a substantially higher level compared to the period before 2013.

Africa was the region with the highest number of non-state conflicts, with 34 conflicts recorded. Of these, 14 occurred in Nigeria, but South Sudan and Ethiopia also experienced several non-state conflicts. Africa is closely followed by the Americas with 32, with Brazil, Colombia and Mexico constituting the main share.

One-sided violence

Almost 76,500 fatalities from one-sided violence against civilians were recorded in 2025, mainly due to the violence in Sudan carried out by non-state actors.

This is the highest number recorded since the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The number of actors conducting one-sided violence reached an all-time high with 55, and the number of fatalities related to government killings increased in 2025 to almost 5,900. Particularly notable is the high level of fatalities related to post-election violence in Tanzania.

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Conflict Trends Global Overview 1946-2025 – PRIO 2026

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 15 Jun 2026.

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