The Ongoing Iran War

WAR RACKET--CATASTROPHE CAPITALISM, 18 May 2026

Sakai Tanaka – TRANSCEND Media Service

11 May 2026 – The US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have stalled. The negotiations haven’t progressed to a certain point and are stuck; rather, they haven’t even begun because they can’t agree on what to negotiate. The US and Israel aim to dismantle the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which holds power in Iran. If Iran were to make concessions to the US and agree to ceasefire negotiations, pragmatists within the Iranian government might gain more influence and push back the IRGC. The IRGC doesn’t want to self-destruct, so it won’t make concessions. The US naval blockade continues, preventing Iran from exporting oil and gas, leading to financial collapse and economic difficulties. However, even if the anti-government movement among the people intensifies, it won’t be able to overthrow the regime. Negotiations will never progress.

  1. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, and the US is imposing a naval blockade on Iran. This double blockade has prevented Iran and the Arab countries from exporting oil and gas. Before this war, the Middle East exported 30 million barrels of oil per day. Current exports have fallen to one-third of that, amounting to only around 10 million barrels per day from countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq, using pipelines bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. This represents a loss of 20% of the world’s total oil production (100 million barrels).
  1. Many believe that the US, as a hegemonic power, is responsible for global economic growth and that President Trump must be in dire straits. However, Trump is not only not in distress, but is intentionally prolonging the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
  1. The Hormuz closure might continue until next year or beyond (the Ukraine war will similarly continue). Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations will decline. Trump’s objective in closing the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period is to neutralize the British (Britain and its puppets, Germany, France, the EU, the US Democratic Party, and the Anglo-European alliance), who have controlled US hegemony since the end of the WWII, and Saudi Arabia and Iran, who stand in the way of Israel’s hegemony in the Middle East.
  1. Due to the drastic decline in Middle Eastern oil production, the only major oil-producing countries remaining in the world are the US and Russia. While Trump and Putin are outwardly feigning a rift, they are actually close and communicating behind the scenes. Energy-wise, the future of the world will be led by a covert US-Russia alliance. Israel (the Likud faction, which has [unofficially and covertly] taken over the US Intelligence Community) is behind the US-Russia alliance. What the Likud faction has done and is doing include as follows: [i] it conceived the Ukraine War, which aimed to destroy the Britain and Europe and strengthen Russia; [ii] it is maintaining the long-term closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which weakens Britain, Europe, and Arab oil-producing countries (and China?), and [iii] it is strengthening the US and Russia. The raising of Japan’s market capitalization (towards the polarity?) was also a Likud-affiliated proposal.
  1. Trump is leaving the Ukrainian war to Britain and Europe, effectively withdrawing the US. Because Britain and Europe continue their hostility towards Russia, they cannot import oil and gas from Russia, which would serve as an alternative to the Middle East. Britain and Europe will continue to face energy shortages, further weakening their economies. The Ukrainian war will continue indefinitely. Putin’s recent statement that “Ukraine is heading towards an end” is a smokescreen, the exact opposite of reality.
  1. Until now, Japan and China were the main importers of the Middle Eastern oil and gas. A more powerful Japan will receive oil and gas from Trump. China will increase imports from Russia. While China has historically held the upper hand in Sino-Russian cooperation, Russia will gradually gain the upper hand. Putin and Takaichi are trusted by Israel, but Xi Jinping is not.
  1. Arab oil-producing countries, led by the wealthy Crown Prince MbS’s Saudi Arabia, will lose international influence as oil production declines. Until recently, it was predicted that if the world became multipolar, the Middle East would become a four-pole system of Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, and Israel. However, Saudi Arabia and Iran will weaken, Turkey will become a puppet of Israel and join its umbrella, and the Middle East (and the Caucasus and North Africa) will become Israeli-dominated.
  1. Iran will take advantages of Trump’s tactics and prolong the existence of its defense regime until Israeli hegemony in the Middle East is established. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz will continue until next year or the year after. The US intelligence (CIA) leaked information to the media claiming that “Iran has preserved 70% of its (large) missiles, surviving destruction by the US and Israel, and possesses missile repair capabilities, making it still very strong.” This may be distorted information, intended to make Iran appear stronger than it actually is and to convince the world that Trump cannot crush Iran militarily (and therefore the prolonged blockade of Hormuz is inevitable).
  1. Israel, the main player in this war on Iran, prioritizes the destruction of Iran’s military power. So in reality, most of Iran’s large missiles might have been destroyed near completely. It is deemed that the repairs of these missiles may nearly be impossible. If Iran truly still possesses many long-range missiles, it would fire them at Israel. Iran must act quickly to win. The longer the double blockade of Hormuz continues, the more economically disadvantageous it becomes for Iran. In reality, Iran hasn’t fired at Israel recently because it no longer has any long-range missiles.
  1. I often see those articles, written by left-wing Islamists claiming that the Middle East will become Iranian-dominated. However, these leftists and Islamists have long been tools manipulated by the US Intelligence Community. The view that “Iran is winning” is likely distorted information designed to make Iran appear stronger.
  1. Both Iran War and Ukraine War will not end within this year. Both wars are being prolonged to weaken the British and European (British-led) powers. The British, who once enjoyed the US hegemony and liberal globalism, are irreversibly coming to an end. The world is shifting to a multipolar model. Trump is promoting Americanism as part of this multipolar shift. The US and the British and European powers are becoming separate entities.

 

  1. Today, the US, Russia, and Israel behind them are at the center of the world. China is in a delicate position under surveillance. Japan has been elevated to confront China. This world order is “multipolar,” but it can also be described as “Israeli world hegemony.”
  1. For Israel to influence the world, it needs the power of the US Intelligence Community. The CCP [i.e. Chinese Communist Party] accepts being monitored because Israel has Trump under its control and is manipulating the US. When the US financial system collapses, the power of the US Intelligence Community and the US hegemony will also be lost. Israel wants to maintain its relationship with the US Intelligence Community and the US financial bubble for as long as possible.
  1. Since last year, the CCP has tended not to resist being monitored and having its hegemony reduced. The CCP does not want to fight Israel. Iran wants help from the CCP, but the CCP has only offered verbal support. The CCP has overlooked the destruction of Iran’s oil and gas facilities and has relinquished its interests.
  1. As part of his Americanism policy, Trump has driven Chinese companies out of the Panama Canal area and overthrown the Venezuelan government, which was dependent on China for oil exports. The CCP has embraced Trump’s Americanism. The CCP also subtly cooperated with Trump’s efforts to “turn Japan towards Takaichi,” for example, by using extreme comments from the Chinese Consul General in Osaka to push Japanese people towards supporting Takaichi, who is hostile to the CCP.
  1. Israel is increasing its influence by intervening in the Central Asia, including neighboring Kazakhstan, which was once the CCP’s backyard. The Belt and Road Initiative’s propaganda has also recently subsided. The CCP is voluntarily relinquishing energy and other interests in Africa. While the CCP has reconciled with India in recent years, India is rapidly drawing closer to Israel at Israel’s invitation. Indonesia is also being invited by Israel. The CCP’s sphere of influence has shrunk considerably in the last two to three years. Will Israel (and Trump) be satisfied with this and let the CCP go? It’s debatable whether Trump’s upcoming visit to China will reveal its true nature.
  1. Israel continues its intrigue not only against the CCP but also against Russia, with whom it is supposed to have a friendly relationship. Recently, Ukrainian President Zelensky visited Armenia and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus (former Soviet Union) and was welcomed. His visit made Russian government furious. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have come under the Israeli hegemony in recent years (with Turkey acting as a subcontractor). Does Israel want to expand the war in Ukraine, which is hostile to Russia, into the Caucasus? Probably not. Rather, the opposite is true.
  1. Israel (Likud-affiliated) can influence both Zelensky and Armenia and Azerbaijan. Israel is trying to make the NATO, now led by Britain and Europe after the US withdrawal, believe that it can defeat Russia if it tries hard enough, by fostering a movement in the Caucasus to become anti-Russian and cooperate with NATO. There are many in Britain and Europe, who think that it would be better to reconcile with Russia rather than be hostile. However, Israel can weaken these people of the pro-reconciliation faction and lead Britain and other Europe into a self-destructive streak of hostility towards Russia. In reality, anyway, the war will not spread to the Caucasus. Russia’s dominance will continue in Ukraine, accelerating Britain and Europe’s self-destruction [financially, in particular].

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Disclaimers:

  1. Those hyperlinks in some of the paragraphs and those web links with brackets [ ], with the italic letters under some of the paragraphs were added by the translator for the convenience and references for the reader.
  2. The views and/or opinions in those underlined hyperlinks and those web links with brackets [ ] with the italic letters under some of the paragraphs, added by the translator, do not necessarily reflect those of his. In addition, it is either impossible or unavailable for him to verify the genuineness of the information in those links. He does not take any responsibility for the contents in those relevant links at all. The reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views, opinions and/or information at his or her own responsibility.
  3. Some sentences in the article, deemed important and/or emphasized in terms of the context, are expressed in the Italic letters, by the translator for the convenience of the reader.
  4. The views and/or opinions expressed in the above-mentioned article are those of Sakai Tanaka, the original author. His views and/or opinions do not necessarily reflect those of the “Transcend Media Service” or “TMS” (which is a non-profit peace journalism website) or those of the translator. Therefore, the reader is kindly requested to understand, interpret or judge those views and/or opinions at his or her own responsibility.
  5. The original article in Japanese was published more than a few days or a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the situations and/or conditions mentioned in the article might have been changed. This also means that the author’s argument expressed and/or the information provided in the article might have become inadequate or less or least adequate, obsolete, out of date or no longer valid by the time the TMS reader reads the same article in English.

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Original author: After graduating from university, Sakai Tanaka started working at the Kyodo News Agency in 1986. From 1997 he joined Microsoft Network (MSN) and in 1999, due to change of policy at Microsoft, he became an independent journalist. Tanaka has published more than twenty books on international affairs, some translated and published in China, South Korea and Taiwan. He studied at Harvard University from 2000 to 2001 and in 2005 was invited to serve as a senior researcher at the Royal Faisal Institute in Saudi Arabia. Website: tanakanews.com 

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Translation:  Satoshi Ashikaga — Google Translate (with some corrections and/or modifications)

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Original in Japanese:  ずっと続くイラン戦争


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This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 18 May 2026.

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