The Ceuta Earthquake: Migration, Sovereignty, and the Return of the Green March

TRANSCEND MEMBERS, 17 Aug 2026

Raïs Neza Boneza – TRANSCEND Media Service

— Ceuta was not the main battleground; Western Sahara was.

11 Aug 2026 – Within a day, crowds of people moved from Morocco to Ceuta, a Spanish city with a population of about 85,000. Initial news reports stated that about 50,000–60,000 people came to this place, and at least 72 people lost their lives. At the same time, the latest news stated that the number of immigrants had increased. However, the Spanish government is now saying that about 69,500 people returned back home to Morocco. Nevertheless, numerous people are still in the territory where the immigration system has nearly completely collapsed. The number of people in this situation is still unknown, but it has serious significance.

While on one side people are seen as the victims of a humanitarian catastrophe, on the other they are perceived simply as the invaders who have come to wealthy Europe with bags and wet shoes. Those migrants were not just a manifestation of the humanitarian problem in the world; rather, they were people caught in the ongoing struggle between countries.

Those who migrate do not actually cross the most guarded North African borders, as one might think; one only has to board a bus to reach one’s destination. Spain considered them illegal migrants who violated the sovereignty of that country. However, in a surprising twist, Madrid found its officials in the territory of Ceuta but continued to ignore the fact of the division of Western Sahara.
It is obvious that for Spain, sovereignty has a special meaning, but for Sahrawis it remains in question.

Morocco has noted this inconsistency.

Crisis of ten days

There is no evidence in the public domain that Rabat had some elaborate plan in mind before undertaking this move. There were different rumours circulating around the open border, which had an adverse impact. The first factor to bear in mind is the latest Spanish actions in terms of migration, which were misunderstood by people, as well as the alarming situation with unemployment, inequality, and despair among ordinary citizens of Morocco. While filming, it was noticed that Moroccan troops purposely tried to stop people and help those returning home. It is interesting, but it does not give any reason to assume that the events started on July 30.

Just ten days before Pedro Sanchez arrived in Algiers to say that Algeria was a “strategic partner and friendly nation,” the countries turned to a new stage of cooperation in gas, trade, infrastructure, and technology with a high-level meeting. During the first half of 2026, Algeria was the main supplier of natural gas to Spain. For an outsider, it is simply another step in diplomacy; however, for Rabat, this is nothing but a warning.

Algeria is seen as Morocco’s main rival at the regional level and the biggest supporter of the Polisario Front, which counterbalances Morocco’s influence within the Maghreb. This rivalry affects military spending and relations, diplomacy in the Sahel region, energy politics, and competition for influence in North Africa.

It should be noted that Sánchez’s visit does not mean that Morocco has opened its borders in response to this step, because timing is not enough evidence. But geopolitical matters do not resolve like court cases, which means countries do not provide fingerprints, written orders, and confessions. The countries are sending signals to each other. The signals can include a press release, recalling the ambassadors for a consultation, or even a coincidence of borders relaxing by several kilometres.

Morocco has previously used the switch.

In May 2021, Spain surreptitiously allowed Brahim Ghali, a leader of the Polisario Front, to come to the country for medical treatment, which resulted in strong reactions from Morocco. Next, border restrictions at Ceuta were loosened, and about 8,000 people crossed the border in two days.

The foreign minister of Morocco acknowledged that the problem occurred because Spain let Ghali into the country. Eventually, the pressure became sufficient for border patrols to resume, and migration ceased. The lesson is very clear: Morocco controls its migration policy.

In March 2022, the outcome of the diplomatic situation became evident. Sánchez changed his position and admitted and backed the Moroccan plan for the autonomy of Western Sahara as the “most serious, realistic, and credible” solution to the problem.

No treaty mentions these actions as messages. The development of the geopolitical situation does not allow the players to exchange offers. History does not mention anything about the 2026 crisis being orchestrated. To sum up, it explains why Moroccan guarantees cannot solve the dispute on their own.

From the Green March to the Human Tide

This approach is not truly a breakthrough concept. Back in 1975, Morocco launched the Green March, which included around 350,000 civilians walking towards the Spanish Sahara. During this operation, Morocco claimed that the march emphasised state backing of civilians while trying to avoid being accused of illegal actions against Spain.

Before this march, the International Court of Justice declared that the Moroccan sultan had historical relations with various tribes in the Western Sahara region. However, the court ruled that there was no reason to deny the Sahrawis self-determination. Morocco accepted the first part of the verdict but completely rejected the second one.

Spain signed the Madrid Agreement and withdrew without finishing the decolonisation process that would have handed over all territories of interest to Spain and Mauritania. After that, fighting began, and Mauritania gave up its claims, while Morocco took possession of the majority of the land. The Sahrawis became refugees and had to settle in camps located in Tindouf, Algeria.

With the implementation of the Green March, civilians were transformed into an instrument of territorial acquisition. Despite the fact that the modern migration problem is different from previous cases, the same principle exists behind the modern migration – taking advantage of people’s weaknesses in order to stimulate their actions. A person is treated as a key industrial tool, but it is still unethical to use such instruments.

The USA starts changing the borders on the map, accompanied by remarks.

The document presents a disturbing new trend. The report attached to the US budget for 2027, recognising Ceuta and Melilla as Spanish territories located within Morocco, means that it perceives their future positively. The alarming point is that this statement appears in a congressional committee report, not in any credible agreement transferring sovereignty over these towns. All this time, Spain asserted that its right to sovereignty over Ceuta was not to be debated. The report also points to certain changes in diplomatic relationships. The report references a $40 million aid package to Moroccan authorities for national security. Although Spain states that its right to sovereignty over Ceuta is unquestionable, in Washington quotation marks are applied to this case.

The case of Ceuta should be examined with extreme caution.

When it comes to Europe, changes in maps are often political moves. Moreover, “Spain” should be interpreted very carefully since it does not automatically imply support from the US in this case. In December 2020, the US recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In response, Morocco established relations with Israel as a part of the Abraham Accords. The deal, presented as a peace treaty, functioned as recognition of rights to disputed territories. Thus, there emerged the new diplomacy: the more states normalize relations, the more territories they get.

In 2021, Israel declared recognition of Morocco’s right to Western Sahara. The year before, Morocco signed a defence deal with Israel aimed at strengthening cooperation in areas such as military training, intelligence sharing, and developments in defence technology. This cooperation has resulted in significant advances in Morocco’s drone technology and surveillance systems.

Therefore, it is not about a secret command centre of coordination where representatives of the US, Israel, and Morocco decide when and how men are to swim to Ceuta.

At the moment, the development suggests a triangle: the US provides recognition and aid; Israel provides military and intelligence assistance; and Morocco provides access to the region, help in fighting against terrorism, and pressure on the southern borders of Europe.

At the same time, Spain pursues its own policy. In 2024, Spain recognised Palestine, condemned Israel for its activities in Gaza, and made relations with that country even worse in connection with the war between Israel and Iran in 2026. Additionally, Spain improved its relations with Algeria, which opposes Morocco and hates Israel.

Ceuta is at the centre of turbulent relationships. Describing the crisis merely as “migration” is like saying that chess is just a game of wooden pieces.

Pegasus and the phone silence

The tale of Pegasus is as follows: Pedro Sánchez’s phone and other Spanish officials’ phones were infected with Israeli spyware. Through international investigations, Morocco was identified as a user of Pegasus, though Rabat denied that it targeted the leaders of other countries. The investigations of Spanish investigators never succeeded in tracing who hacked Sánchez.

On January 2, 2026, the High Court of Spain closed the investigation again, declaring that Israel didn’t cooperate as it had been requested before. In other words, without cooperation from Israel, the investigation couldn’t identify the guilty.

It can hardly be concluded that “Morocco hacked Sánchez,” as it hasn’t been proven in court.

But there is already a big conclusion: the Prime Minister of Spain was attacked with the weapon bought from Israel. It is known from reliable sources that Spain’s strategic partner got hold of it, but Spain couldn’t go far with its investigation because of Israel’s uncooperative approach.

Thus, if earlier the two countries could be considered rivals, nowadays they can be called the states of the same kind. They will deal with the investigation of the hacking of the phone of the head of state only in case it doesn’t lead to exciting outcomes.

The relevance of Pegasus is that modern coercion is cumulative in nature: there are no separate compartments of borders, intelligence, energy, diplomatic recognition, security assistance, and monitoring technologies – all together they form an ecosystem of pressure. Each element doesn’t prove coordination but shows the country which has the leverage and provided the means of its sovereignty in legal terms; this country used to belong to Spain, but it was never decolonised. Morocco exercises control over almost the whole region, as it is trying to approve a plan that aims to secure autonomy in its favour. The Polisario Front is advocating for the self-determination of the Sahrawi people, having established the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic that has recognition from the African Union.

In 1991, the United Nations launched a peacekeeping operation under the name MINURSO. Twenty-five years later, the operation is still active, but the referendum has become a kind of ‘fairy tale’ often mentioned in Europe’s ethical policies and never implemented.

The Security Council Resolution 2797, adopted in October 2025, set a new beginning of negotiations related to Morocco’s autonomy proposal. The resolution stated that Morocco will not get sovereignty, and the right of self-determination of the Sahrawi nation will not be taken away.

Legal paradoxes are surprising

In 2024, the European Court of Justice stated that if the agreements of Morocco’s participation to the EU include Western Sahara, Morocco cannot be included in the regional agreements. For customs purposes, Western Sahara is considered a distinct region, which means that tomatoes that are produced in this area will not be labelled as Moroccan tomatoes from the point of view of consumers.

On the other hand, the opinions of European courts and governments differ drastically. Europe built the hand that now grips it.

Morocco’s ace is not military power, but rather a strategy of perpetual necessity.

For a long time, Europe has controlled the monetary flows to Morocco, Turkey, Libya, and Tunisia, thus preventing migration movements along the way. It counted on these countries to ensure law enforcement, adherence to obligations, and moral duty. These countries were treated as law enforcement agencies, filter zones, and transit locations. However, Europe seems surprised now that these ‘law enforcement agencies’ have their own political goals to pursue.

Rabat controls the flow of migration, anti-terrorism action, commercial access to Africa, energy routes, fishing, and security of Ceuta and Melilla. The opportunity exists for organising these processes so as not to let Europe blind itself to this fact.

The effectiveness of the migration utilisation technique lies in its implicitness. There is no need for any government announcement about sending 50,000 migrants to the border. The only thing that needs to be done is to ease monitoring, respond to mobilisation slowly, allow news to flow through Internet channels, lift bans, or create the mood that no one intends to guard the border properly.

Europe has surrendered its borders to outside contractors, only to discover they hold the key. The situation demonstrates sovereignty in Europe in 2026: grand declarations in Brussels, reinforced barriers in Ceuta, but still the power operates even outside the official borders. Do not blame the migrant; blaming him is just a part of the broader picture. The far right regards him as an invader and ignores higher authorities, while on the left, the individual is seen as a victim, but members of the left do not pay any attention to how the government uses that individual’s desperation. The first position robs him of humanity; the second takes away his context. These two positions let the individual disappear from the political map.

This xenophobic image is quite convenient. The chaos helps the European extremists weaken the unity, humiliate Madrid, and transform the situation into a regional immigration conflict. At the same time, while all the experts discuss the essence of migrants, the real stakeholders remain in the shadow.

The dead deserve more. They were not tools but people needing assistance, not victims of traffickers, online manipulators, or politicians. Calling it “migration management” is just a bureaucratic trick.

The message is sent in the Sahara.

Ceuta is not just a border crisis; it is the crisis of leased sovereignty as a result of the improving relations between Spain and Algeria, the recognition of Morocco as the partner of the USA in the Western Sahara issue, the strengthening of Morocco and Israel ties, and the increasing skepticism of the USA Congress members regarding Spain’s sovereignty of Spain over Ceuta and Melilla. Moreover, the Pegasus investigation was disrupted by the stop of cooperation with Israel.

There are no details confirming the allegations of coordinated actions; they simply serve as a backdrop for the event. Morocco has discovered a way to exert pressure without engaging in conflict. It leverages the instability in Europe for its own objectives, employing a method that is more cost-effective than war..

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Raïs Neza Boneza is the author of fiction as well as non-fiction, poetry books and articles. He was born in the Katanga province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (Former Zaïre). He is also an activist and peace practitioner. Raïs is a member of the TRANSCEND Media Service Editorial Committee and a convener of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment for Central and African Great Lakes. He uses his work to promote artistic expressions as a means to deal with conflicts and maintaining mental wellbeing, spiritual growth and healing. Raïs has travelled extensively in Africa and around the world as a lecturer, educator and consultant for various NGOs and institutions. His work is premised on art, healing, solidarity, peace, conflict transformation and human dignity issues and works also as freelance journalist. You can reach him at rais.boneza@gmail.com – http://www.raisnezaboneza.no

Go to Original – rboneza.substack.com

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