Strait of Hormuz–The Gate of Ahura Mazda: Latest Actor in Global Peace Disruption

TRANSCEND MEMBERS, 18 May 2026

Prof Hoosen Vawda – TRANSCEND Media Service

“A Comprehensive Study of its Geologic Birth, Imperial Legacy, Modern Geopolitics, and the Search for Global Peace” [1]

“The Gate of the Wise Lord: How the World’s Most Dangerous Waterway Became an Unlikely Crucible for Coexistence” [2]

This publication is suitable for general readership. Parental guidance is recommended for minors, who may use this paper, as a resource material, for projects.

Prologue

It is relevant in the author’s opinion to commence this publication with a contemporary visual interpretation of Ahura Mazda, the supreme deity of Zoroastrianism, rendered in a form inspired by the Achaemenid Faravahar motif, a winged disc symbolizing divine wisdom, cosmic order (Asha), and the moral sovereignty of truth over chaos. The central divine figure is depicted emerging in relief-like prominence, echoing bas‑relief carvings found in Persepolis and Naqsh‑e Rustam, where royal theology and sacred cosmology converge.

In the foreground, a circle of Zoroastrian adherents is shown engaged in ritual veneration around an elevated fire altar. The sacred fire (Atar), placed at the compositional axis, functions both as a symbolic and liturgical focal point. Within Zoroastrian theology, fire is not worshipped as a deity but revered as a visible embodiment of divine light, purity, and truth, serving as a mediator between the material and spiritual realms. The flames are rendered with luminous realism, subtly suggesting both physical combustion and metaphysical illumination.

The devotees’ raised hands and symmetrical arrangement evoke ritual gestures associated with prayer, invocation, and ethical alignment with Asha, reinforcing the communal dimension of Zoroastrian worship. The absence of overt ritual paraphernalia beyond the fire altar underscores the religion’s emphasis on inner purity, righteous thought (Humata), word (Hukhta), and deed (Hvarshta), principles foundational to Zoroastrian ethical philosophy.

Present day Iran is a remnant of the mighty Persian Empire. Zoroastrianism is one of the world’s oldest religions. Otherwise known as Mazadayasna[3] by those who follow it, the roots of Zoroastrianism date back as far as the Second Millennium BC, or even before and served as the state religion of the Great Persian Empire for more than a millennium.[4] The architectural backdrop, in the above specially created graphics is suggestive of ancient Persian stonework, situates the scene within a timeless civilizational memory, bridging historical reconstruction with symbolic imagination. The warm, earthen palette, dominated by ochres, golds, and sunlit hues, evokes the arid landscapes of the Iranian plateau, while simultaneously referencing the spiritual metaphor of light triumphing over darkness.

From a visual anthropology perspective, this image synthesizes archaeological motifs, theological abstraction, and modern photorealism, creating a hybridized sacred aesthetic that transcends literal historicity. The depiction of Ahura Mazda [5], The Wise Lord, in anthropomorphic form aligns with symbolic representation traditions rather than doctrinal orthodoxy, reflecting the interpretive freedom often exercised in contemporary artistic engagements with ancient religions. Ultimately, the composition serves as a meditative tableau on cosmic order, ethical consciousness, and human participation in divine harmony, resonating with broader interfaith themes of light, truth, and spiritual coherence, concepts that find intriguing parallels in the author’s publication frameworks of biophotonic synchronicity and harmonism [6],[7],[8],[9]. The Strait of Hormuz [10]is the Cradle of Empires, Flashpoint of Nations – A Geographic Site for Global Peace Disruption from Antiquity to the 21^st Century. Geography is often destiny, but in the narrow waters of the Strait of Hormuz, geography is a loaded weapon. Connecting the vast oilfields of the Persian Gulf to the open Indian Ocean, this 21-kilometer-wide (at its narrowest) passage has for millennia been both a commercial lifeline and a strategic throat. From the wooden dhows of antiquity to hypersonic missiles of the 21st century, whoever commands Hormuz has held a sword over the economies and peace of continents. This report profiles that sword.

Introduction

The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a waterway; it is the world’s most sensitive maritime chokepoint. Located between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, it facilitates the transit of approximately 20% of global petroleum consumption (over 17 million barrels per day). Unlike other chokepoints e.g., Malacca, Suez, Hormuz sits within a cauldron of theocratic rivalry, unresolved historical grievances, and direct great-power competition. This document traces its evolution from a silent witness to Persian glory to its current status as a potential trigger for World War III.

The Regional Geography and What Belongs to Whom on the Political Stage

• The Geography: A strategic “S”-shaped channel. Width: ~33 km at its widest, ~21 km at the narrowest. Depth: suitable for supertankers. Two key traffic separation schemes (northbound/southbound). The Strait includes the Musandam Peninsula (an exclave of Oman) and the island of Abu Musa.
• Political Ownership and  Claims:
  • Iran (North): Controls the entire northern coastline. Claims sovereignty over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb (disputed with UAE). Holds the primary military capability to close or mine the Strait.
  • Oman (South): Controls the southern shoreline (Musandam Peninsula). Historically neutral, maintains diplomatic relations with both Iran and the West. Controls the Omani side of the Strait’s exit.
  • United Arab Emirates (Southwest): Claims the three disputed islands. Its ports (Fujairah, just outside the Strait) were built as a bypass pipeline terminus.
  • Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar: Littoral states of the Persian Gulf whose only maritime outlet to the ocean is via Hormuz. They are economically hostage to its security.
  • USA and  Allies (Extra-regional): Maintain a permanent naval presence (US 5th Fleet, Bahrain) to guarantee freedom of navigation. No territorial claims.

A Historical Review of the Region During Antiquity and the Persian Empire

• Achaemenid Era (550–330 BCE)[11]: The Strait was known as the “Gate to the Persian Sea.” Under Darius I, the Persian navy controlled Hormuz to secure trade routes from the Indus Valley to Egypt. The region was not a point of conflict but a controlled internal corridor of the empire.
• Sassanian Era (224–651 CE)[12]: The Strait became a battleground of the Roman-Persian proxy wars. Roman attempts to bypass Persian trade via the Red Sea increased Hormuz’s strategic value. The Sassanids fortified the coast against Arab and Hephthalite incursions.
• Islamic Golden Age [13](7th–13th c.): After the Muslim conquest, Hormuz (specifically the old port of Hormuz on the mainland) became a premier entrepôt. The Strait functioned as a neutral tollgate for Chinese, Indian, African, and Persian merchants. Peace disruption was rare – driven mostly by local piracy rather than state actors.
• Portuguese Interruption (1507–1622)[14]: The first major disruption of global peace via Hormuz. Afonso de Albuquerque seized the island of Hormuz, building a fortress to control all Gulf trade. This sparked 150 years of conflict with the Safavid Persians and English East India Company. The eventual English-Persian reconquest of Hormuz in 1622 established a pattern: global powers use the Strait to choke rivals.

Thoughts for Reflection

Following the strategic overview, the author finds it prudent to reflect on the precise mechanics of geology, history, geopolitical asymmetry, and international law, in relation to the Strait of Hormuz.

How was this Strait formed geographically billions of years ago and any tectonic plates are involved?

The story of the Strait of Hormuz is not one of billions, but rather of tens of millions of years, and it is a direct consequence of a monumental continental collision. The process began roughly 35 million years ago with the relentless northward movement of the Arabian Plate[15] toward the Eurasian Plate[16]. Before this collision, these two great landmasses were separated by a vast, ancient ocean known as the Tethys Sea[17].

As the Arabian Plate pushed northward, it subducted (slid under) the Eurasian Plate. This tectonic crunch had two monumental consequences visible today. Firstly, the immense pressure crumpled the earth’s crust, pushing up the Zagros Mountains [18]of southern Iran. Secondly, as the Tethys Sea was progressively squeezed and consumed, the remaining body of water in this western region was compressed into an incredibly narrow seaway: the Strait of Hormuz.

This same geological process is also the reason for the region’s oil wealth. The collision and subsequent subduction created giant underground traps where organic material, buried for eons, transformed into the vast hydrocarbon reserves that are now trapped behind the geological barrier of the Zagros fold-and-thrust belt, effectively sealed off from the open ocean by the narrow strait itself. In a poetic sense, the very same tectonic forces that filled the Persian Gulf with oil also created the narrow gate through which it must all pass.

During antiquity, were the Romans, Greeks, Persians, Carthaginians and Egyptians, involved in and trade through this waterway and were there any major conflicts? Is the present blockade scenario reminiscent to the blockade of Constantinople by the invading Crusade armies and ships in antiquity?[19]

This question weaves together economic and military history.

Trade and Involvement: While the Egyptians and Carthaginians were primarily Mediterranean and Red Sea powers (with the Carthaginians famously using the Strait of Gibraltar as their primary trade gateway), the Greeks, Persians, and later the Romans were deeply involved with the waterway leading to Hormuz. The Achaemenid Persians controlled it as an internal trade corridor, using it as the “Gate to the Persian Sea.” After Alexander’s conquests, his successor states (the Seleucids) and later the Roman Empire were acutely aware of Hormuz as the terminus for lucrative Indian Ocean trade routes that brought spices and textiles from India to the West.

Major Conflicts: The most famous ancient naval conflict in the region was not in the Strait of Hormuz itself but a product of the same Persian-Greek rivalry. The Battle of Salamis (480 BCE) was a massive naval engagement between the allied Greek city-states and the Achaemenid Persian Empire. While this battle occurred near Athens, its cause was the Persian ambition to control the entire Eastern Mediterranean and its trade. The Empire’s ability to project such a fleet was fundamentally underwritten by its control over internal trade and resources flowing through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Later, the Roman-Persian wars often saw naval skirmishes and blockading strategies in the approaches to the Gulf, though large-scale fleet battles in the narrow strait itself were rare due to the difficulty of maneuvering large galleys.

The Constantinople Analogy: You have drawn a brilliant historical parallel. The present-day strategy of threatening a blockade of Hormuz is indeed reminiscent of the Crusader siege of Constantinople (1204) , though with a critical twist. In the Fourth Crusade, the Venetian-led Crusaders blockaded and then sacked Constantinople, a choke-point between Europe and Asia, crippling the Byzantine Empire’s economy and seizing its accumulated wealth. The objective was offensive: to capture and control a choke-point for direct financial and territorial gain. The modern Iranian strategy is essentially defensive: a “Madman Theory” deterrent. Tehran signals that if its existence is threatened, it will impose an unbearable cost by blockading the choke-point, triggering a global depression. In essence, the Crusaders invaded through a choke-point to pillage an empire; Iran threatens to close a choke-point to prevent its own destruction.

How were the UAE, Muscat, Qatar, Bahrain etc. formed from the defeated Persia by Alexander the Great, a Macedonian?

This requires a refinement of the historical and political timeline. Alexander the Great (356–323 BCE) defeated the Achaemenid Persian Empire in a series of decisive battles. However, he did not personally “form” the modern Arab states of the Gulf. Instead, his conquests set in motion a chain of Hellenization and political fragmentation that created the vacuum in which Arab identities and small kingdoms could eventually coalesce centuries later.

As you correctly note, Alexander was a Macedonian Greek. After conquering Persia, he sent his admiral Nearchus to sail from the Indus River through the Gulf to the mouth of the Tigris and Euphrates, thus confirming the water route and linking the Greek world to the Gulf. However, upon Alexander’s sudden death in 323 BCE, his vast empire was immediately carved up by his generals (the Diadochi). The Persian Gulf region fell to the Seleucid Empire (Greek-ruled Syria and Mesopotamia) and later the Parthian Empire.

It was the slow decline of these Hellenistic and Persian powers that allowed the native Arab peoples of the peninsula’s interior to assert themselves. The modern states of the UAE (the Trucial States) , Qatar, and Bahrain are not direct legacies of Alexander. They emerged much later, primarily in the 18th and 19th centuries, as tribal confederations (like the Bani Yas, Al Khalifa, and Al Thani families) who settled along the coast, engaged in pearling, fishing, and trade. They later came under a British protectorate to fend off Ottoman and Persian expansionism. Their “formation” owes far more to the decline of Persian power and the rise of British maritime hegemony in the Gulf than to any direct Macedonian governance.

How is Iran controlling the waterway, presently as it does NOT have a large navy?

This is the central strategic paradox of the Strait. Iran has consciously abandoned the idea of building a massive, expensive conventional “Blue Water” navy to rival the US. Instead, it has perfected a doctrine of Asymmetric Warfare, often called a “Mosquito Fleet” strategy. Iran’s control is not based on winning a naval battle but on making the cost of any battle so horrifically high that no one dares start one. Its “navy” is a system of layered, low-cost, high-density threats.

The core of their A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial) strategy:

1. Geographic Positioning as “Unsinkable Carriers”: Iran has heavily fortified the three strategically located islands of Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb in the heart of the Strait. Military analysts call these Iran’s “unsinkable aircraft carriers,” bristling with anti-ship missiles, radar, and drone launch facilities that can completely dominate the narrow shipping lanes.
2. “Swarm” Tactics (The Mosquito Fleet): The IRGC Navy operates hundreds of small, fast, missile-armed patrol boats. They are cheap, fast, and present a very low radar profile. In a conflict, these boats would execute a “swarm attack” on a massive, slow US aircraft carrier. The US could sink half the swarm, but the sheer number of low-cost attackers makes it statistically likely a few will get through to launch missiles or torpedoes, disabling a multi-billion-dollar warship.
3. A “Layered Arsenal” of Missiles: Iran has developed a comprehensive family of land-based and sea-based anti-ship cruise missiles (e.g., Noor, Qader, Ghadir, with ranges up to 300 km) and anti-ship ballistic missiles (e.g., Khalij Fars) specifically designed to engage large naval assets. These are not fired from ships alone but from hidden coastal batteries and the fortified islands.
4. Mines and “Midget” Submarines: Iran possesses a large inventory of naval mines, which could be covertly laid by its force of Ghadir-class midget submarines. These tiny submarines (14-20 in service) can hide in the shallow, noisy waters of the Strait (30-60 meters deep) and lie in wait on the seabed, making them extremely difficult to detect with conventional sonar before they launch a surprise torpedo attack on a tanker or warship.
5. Drones and Surveillance: Iran uses reconnaissance drones (e.g., Mohajer-6) flown from the trio islands to provide persistent surveillance, targeting data for shore-based missiles, and even armed drone strikes against smaller naval targets, creating a dense detection-and-response network across the entire Strait.

In essence, Iran does not need to control the surface of the water. It has created a “wall” of overlapping threats from the air, the land, the surface, and under the sea, turning the Strait into a giant, tightly-knit kill zone.

Has United Nations made any official rulings about the present status?

Yes, and the results are stark. The UN Security Council (UNSC) has attempted to act as tensions have escalated. As of April 2026, the UNSC failed to adopt a binding resolution on the Strait of Hormuz. The proposed resolution, led by Bahrain, sought to demand that Iran cease all attacks on commercial vessels, refrain from obstructing freedom of navigation, and authorize states to conduct naval escorts.

The outcome was a deadlock:

• 11 members voted in favour.
• However, both Russia and China used their veto powers as permanent members to block the resolution. Pakistan and Colombia abstained.
• Earlier drafts were even more forceful, invoking Chapter Seven of the UN Charter [20](which would have permitted economic sanctions or even military force), but that language was removed to try to appease the veto powers.

The result is a complete paralysis of the UN’s primary security body on this issue. It reveals that on the global security council, there is no international consensus. The failure to pass even a “softened” resolution was seen as a diplomatic victory for Iran and a sign that the great-power rivalry (US/Europe vs. Russia/China) has fully infected the security of the world’s most important maritime lifeline.

If the Peace Disruption continues in the region, how will it affect global trade and its impact on world economy, leading to a financial chaos analogous to the Great Depression of 1930s[21]?

The author raises a critical question. The current disruption is not analogous to a typical recession; it is an energy-induced supply shock of a magnitude that would plunge the world into an economic crisis reminiscent of the 1930s, only with much higher global economic integration speeding the collapse. The key difference from the 1930s is the cause (an energy supply collapse vs. a stock market crash and banking failure), but the effects, deflation, mass unemployment, and global trade collapse, would end in a similar place.

The Immediate Economic Chaos:

• Energy Supply Crash: A prolonged closure would shut in over 10 million barrels of oil per day (bpd), or roughly 10-20% of total global oil supply.
• Price Explosion: Oil prices would skyrocket. Oxford Economics models a future in which Brent crude surges to around 190perbarrel
• Global GDP Collapse: The world would be tipped into an outright, synchronous recession. PIMCO notes that a 20% drop in global oil supply is “unprecedented” and would cause a demand destruction directly linked to a global GDP contraction of over 10% (annualized). Oxford Economics projects World GDP growth slowing to just 1.4% in 2026 (down from ~2.6% baseline), with the US, Europe, and Japan in deep recession.

How This Triggers a 1930s-Style Collapse:

1. Supply Chain Fracture: Modern logistics run on “Just-In-Time” delivery, entirely dependent on stable, cheap diesel fuel. A shortage would paralyze shipping, trucking, aviation, and manufacturing within weeks, not months, causing artificial scarcity of food, medicine, and manufactured goods.
2. Stagflation and Central Bank Paralysis[22],[23]: Unlike the 1930s, we would face Stagflation (high inflation + high unemployment). The ECB and Bank of England would be forced to raise interest rates to fight the energy-driven inflation, further crushing growth. The Fed would face an impossible choice: fight inflation or save the labour market. This policy chaos would shatter investor confidence.
3. The 3.5 Trillion Wound: 3.5 trillion in global GDP at direct risk (over 3% of total global output). Gulf states alone would lose an estimated $1.1 billion in oil revenue per day.
4. Comparison to Past Crises:
   • 1973 Oil Crisis: Lost ~4-5 million bpd→ Prices quadrupled→ Recession.
   • 2020 COVID: Lost ~9% of global oil demand (via demand destruction)→ Contraction.
   • Current Hormuz Crisis: Lost ~10-20% of global supply directly→ Oil at 190+(vs.190+(vs.126 peak in 2026)→ GDP growth gutted.

The 1930s Analogy Is Not Hyperbole: We would see mass shipping layoffs (40% of global trade by sea seizes up), cascading sovereign debt defaults (oil importing nations go broke), and a collapse in global aviation. Unlike 2008, where the financial system failed, this is a physical collapse of the energy supply chain. Once oil storage buffers are exhausted (within 3-6 months), physical rationing of fuel and electricity would begin in major economies.

In summary: A continued blockade would not cause a recession. It would cause a Great Depression 2.0[24], triggered not by Wall Street speculation, but by a geopolitical fist tightened around the world’s fuel line at the Strait of Hormuz. The only difference is that this depression would arrive in months, not years.

The Present Strategic Importance

• Energy Flows: 21% of the world’s LNG passes through Hormuz (mostly from Qatar). More than 80% of oil exported from the Gulf (Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait, UAE) transits there.
• Military Calculus: Iran has deployed a “layered denial” strategy: naval mines, anti-ship cruise missiles (Noor, Qader), fast-attack boats (Swarm tactics), and ballistic missiles (Khalij Fars) designed to hit ships and coastal US bases.
• Global Economic Vulnerability: A 30-day closure would cut global GDP by an estimated 5-7%, triggering petrol prices above $300/barrel, recession, and food shortages (since many Gulf nations import 90% of their food through the Strait in returning tankers).

The Present Stalemate Between International Role Players

• The Core Conflict: Iran’s nuclear program vs. US-led sanctions. Iran argues Hormuz is “our maritime backyard.” The West invokes international freedom of navigation (UNCLOS).
• Key Flashpoints (2019–2024):
  • Mine attacks on tankers (May/June 2019). US blamed Iran; Iran denied.
  • Seizure of the British-flagged Stena Impero (July 2019) in retaliation for UK seizing an Iranian tanker off Gibraltar.
  • Iranian harassment of US warships in 2021-2023 (laser beams, close passes).
  • 2024-2025: Iran’s deployment of new hypersonic missiles capable of striking US carrier groups within the Gulf.
• The Stalemate Equation: Iran cannot sustain a closure (it needs the commerce too). The US cannot tolerate a closure (global economy collapses). Neither side wants war, but both prepare for one. Proxy war (Houthis attacking Saudi oil from Yemen, Hezbollah threats) is the current valve for tension.

Possible Stage for World War III

This is not alarmism. Hormuz is a “triple trigger” zone:

1. The Miscalculation Scenario: A US warship shadows an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speedboat. An Iranian commander, fearing pre-emptive attack, launches a swarm of missiles. A US ship is hit. US retaliates by sinking the Iranian northern fleet. Iran declares a full closure and mines the Strait. US invokes Article 5 of NAT.O (since many transiting ships are European). Russia and China (both heavily reliant on Iranian non-oil trade and energy) deploy naval forces to “protect their assets.” Within 72 hours, three nuclear powers are in direct naval engagement.
2. The Nuclear Escalation: Iran announces it has weaponized a nuclear device. Israel (which threatens pre-emptive strikes) bombs the Bushehr reactor. Iran responds by attempting to sink a US carrier in Hormuz using an anti-ship ballistic missile. US retaliation takes out Iran’s missile bases. Iran releases a nuclear dirty bomb over a US fleet via a converted container ship. Result: The first nuclear exchange at sea since 1945.
3. The Economic Collapse Preceding War: A prolonged, low-intensity blockade (not full closure but constant harassment) drives oil to $500/barrel. Global depression triggers nationalist coups in several European capitals. Desperate, a European task force joins the US to “forcibly re-open” Hormuz with bombings of Iranian shore batteries. Russia sees NATO expansion into its strategic rear – and attacks the Baltic states simultaneously. World War III begins not in Europe, but in Hormuz, then spreads.

1) The Effect on the Economy of South Africa and Its Ports (Cape Town)

The impact is severe and is arriving on two fronts: a physical distortion of global shipping and a brutal energy price shock. The country is caught in a perfect economic storm with no shelter.

A.) Cape Town and The Port of Cape Town: The Missed Windfall

At first glance, the crisis seems like an opportunity for South African ports. With the Suez Canal also disrupted and ships forced to avoid the Persian Gulf, maritime traffic is indeed being rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing visibility for the Port of Cape Town. Some shipping lines have announced they are adding 10-14 days to global cycles, passing by the Cape.

However, this potential advantage is being squandered by South Africa’s own chronic inefficiencies. A recent analysis of South African ports found that the Port of Cape Town, along with other major hubs like Durban, continues to face severe congestion, weather-related delays, and infrastructure constraints. Exporters warn that global shipping disruptions will not automatically translate into local economic gains solely due to these operational failures. The same report notes that while the crisis has increased Cape Town’s visibility, “unlocking the opportunity will require addressing constraints such as fuel availability, turnaround times and cost competitiveness”. Instead, the rerouting is causing container delays and rising costs, with retailers everywhere absorbing the pain.

B.) The Energy Stranglehold: Skyrocketing Prices and Physical Shortages

This is where the main damage is being done. South Africa, producing no oil or natural gas, is completely exposed to volatile international prices. The disruption in the Strait is now considered a “structural turning point” for the global energy market, and the consequences are filtering through to inflation and fiscal policy.

• Diesel Dependency: South Africa receives a staggering 80% of its diesel from the Middle East, a supply route now entirely compromised by the blockade.
• Fuel Reserves are Dangerously Low: Official figures reveal the country’s fuel reserves stand at a mere two weeks, a fraction of the 90-day global benchmark.
• Rising Prices and Inflation: The South African Reserve Bank Governor has warned that the war’s impact is transmitting directly through the oil price, leading to higher fuel prices domestically. The latest data shows “R3.06 per litre for petrol and R7.37 per litre for diesel” marking the highest single-month price increase South Africa has ever seen.

(2) Crude Oil Price in RSA vs. Global North

This is not directly comparable to a “Global North” baseline price. The situation reflects a global market but with differentiated impacts due to regional vulnerabilities.

On the world stage, the price of a barrel of crude oil is set globally. The recent US-Israel strikes on Iran sent prices soaring above $100 a barrel. However, a significant split has emerged: Asian buyers are facing a much lower effective price than Western buyers. Saudi Arabia, in a strategic move to defend its market share, has slashed its official selling price for its “Arab Light” grade to Asian buyers, cutting premiums to their lowest in years.

So, what does this mean for South Africa? The calculation is brutal. While the country has some strategic energy relationships, they are not a cure-all:

• Supply Source: 75% of South Africa’s crude comes from Nigeria and Saudi Arabia. Although this protects it from a complete supply cutoff, the price surge from all global suppliers is unavoidable.
• Foreign Exchange Collapse: The South African Rand is highly sensitive to global uncertainty. As the situation worsens, the Rand weakens further against the dollar. Because oil is traded globally in US dollars, a weaker Rand effectively makes every barrel of oil more expensive in local currency, adding a second, compounding layer to the price shock.
• Falling Refining Capacity: The national refinery’s current output provides only 40% security for energy supply, exposing the country to import parity pricing volatility.

In short, the price of crude in South Africa is likely to be significantly more devastating to its household budget than the “headline” global price suggests, because the local currency is collapsing in tandem with the rise in the dollar-denominated oil price.

(3) The Economic Collapse of the Emirati States (Dubai as a Ghost Town)

Your observation about Dubai’s sudden reversal is not an exaggeration but a current economic reality. The city’s ascent was built on a “safe haven” myth, which has been shattered in weeks.

The data points to an acute economic crisis:

• The Missile Strike: A single missile fragment hitting the Burj Al Arab hotel on February 28, 2026, punctured the city’s 40-year-old security bubble. This single event triggered a massive capital flight.
• Real Estate Implosion: The property market has completely crashed. Real estate discounts are now as deep as 20%-25% off peak prices. In the apartment rental sector, rates have collapsed by as much as 50%. Overall real estate transaction volumes in the UAE plunged by **37% year-on-year in the first 12 days of March.
• Ghost Town Dynamics: Contractors are now reportedly “begging to do projects at a loss just to receive the liquidity and stay afloat”. Major gold trading routes have been severed, and the city’s famous bustling atmosphere has evaporated as foreign buyers and investors have fled.
• Expat Exodus: The “one million expats” returning to India is an astute observation. While many are trying to stay to preserve their jobs, the mass exodus has already begun. News reports confirm that “hundreds of Indians…confront a stark, uncomfortable choice: risk their lives or risk their livelihoods”. A major construction labour crunch has hit as many Indian, Bangladeshi, and Nepali workers have returned home.
• Why the Collapse was so Swift: Dubai’s economy was heavily dependent on Off-Plan Sales (pre-construction), with transactions accounting for 65% of property deals in 2025, heavily dependent on foreign buyers. With those foreign buyers gone and the threat of war looming, the entire speculative bubble collapsed.

Is there any scriptural reference to the Strait in Abrahamic literature?

The author has raised this as a profoundly insightful question. While the Strait of Hormuz is not mentioned by name in any canonical Abrahamic scripture (the Bible, Torah, or Quran), it holds a fascinating place in eschatological (end-times) interpretation across all three faiths, particularly in Jewish and Christian prophetic traditions.

In Jewish Thought: There is a deep linguistic and prophetic link. The Hebrew word for Egypt is Mitzrayim, which is often interpreted by Jewish scholars as deriving from meitzarim, meaning “narrow straits” or “places of confinement”. In this reading, the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a contemporary manifestation of the ancient “straits” from which the Messiah will deliver the people.

In Eschatological Prophecy: A 500-year-old Kabbalistic (Jewish mysticism) secret is said to have identified the Strait of Hormuz as the epicenter of the final war. [25]Similarly, a 400-year-old prophecy from a Jewish sage explicitly identifies the Strait of Hormuz as the flashpoint that will trigger the pre-Messiah conflict of “Gog and Magog” (the final war of the End of Days).

In Christian End-Times Interpretation: This same “Gog and Magog” prophecy in the Book of Ezekiel[26] is central to Christian eschatology. Many contemporary Christian prophecy ministries are actively analyzing the Strait of Hormuz, stating that “Scripture consistently points us back to this region as central to the fulfilment of end-time events”.

• The figure of Gog and Magog appears in the Quran not as a simple footnote, but as a central character in a rich, multi-layered prophecy. Their story in the holy book of Islam is a narrative of epic scale—one of a godly king, an impenetrable barrier, and a final, cataclysmic release that signals the end of days.

The Two Quranic References: Surah Al-Kahf and Surah Al-Anbiya

• The primary Quranic narrative of Gog and Magog unfolds across two chapters (surahs), each offering a distinct perspective on these two malevolent forces known as Yajuj and Majuj.

Surah Al-Kahf (The Cave): The Barrier

• The longest and most detailed account is found in Surah Al-Kahf (18:83-98). Here, the story of Dhul-Qarnayn—a just and powerful ruler often identified with Alexander the Great or a pre-Islamic king—serves as the prophetic vehicle.
• The narrative begins as Dhul-Qarnayn reaches a mountain pass between two great barriers. There, he encounters a people who cannot understand his language and who plead for his help. They tell him:
• “O Dhul-Qarnayn, indeed Gog and Magog are [great] corrupters in the land. So may we assign for you an expenditure that you might make between us and them a barrier?”
• The “corruption” (fasad) they wreak was not merely mischief but a systemic devastation: plunder, destruction of crops and livestock, and a campaign of terror that left nothing untouched. They were a savage people who attacked and plundered their neighbors, making life unbearable.
• Dhul-Qarnayn refuses their money, declaring that the power given to him by God is sufficient. Instead, he commands them to bring him sheets of iron, which he piles between the two mountain slopes until it reaches the same height as the peaks. He then orders them to blow fire until the iron becomes like a blazing furnace. Finally, he pours molten brass over the structure, sealing it into a single, impenetrable wall:
• “And (Gog and Magog) were not able to surmount, nor could they pierce (it).”
• The wall is thus not a simple stone barrier but a sophisticated metallurgical construction—iron fused with brass—a detail that has fascinated engineers and exegetes alike for centuries.

Surah Al-Anbiya (The Prophets): The Release

• While Surah Al-Kahf describes the construction of the barrier, Surah Al-Anbiya (21:96-97) describes its apocalyptic destruction. The verse is stark and immediate:
• “Until, when Ya’juj and Ma’juj (Gog and Magog) are let loose (from their barrier), and they swiftly swarm from every mound.”
• This is not a gradual emergence but a sudden, explosive release. They pour forth from “every mound” (or “every elevated place”), an unstoppable tide of humanity that spreads across the earth. The very next verse declares:
• “And the true promise (Day of Resurrection) shall draw near…”
• Thus, the release of Gog and Magog is not simply an event; it is the final sign before the Hour. It is the moment when the carefully maintained order of the world collapses, and divine judgment becomes imminent.

Who Was Dhul-Qarnayn? [27]The Builder of the Barrier

• The identity of Dhul-Qarnayn (“The Two-Horned One”) has been a subject of intense scholarly debate. The Quran itself does not name him, but the description fits a figure known across multiple traditions:
• Alexander the Great: The most popular identification in both Muslim and pre-Islamic Christian and Jewish traditions. In the Alexander Romance, the legendary king builds a gate in the Caucasus Mountains to contain the barbarian tribes of Gog and Magog. However, the Quran’s Dhul-Qarnayn is a monotheist and a servant of God—a significant departure from the historical Alexander, who was a pagan.
• A Pre-Islamic Persian King: Some scholars identify him with Cyrus the Great or another Achaemenid ruler, given his description as a just world-conqueror who respected local peoples.
• A Prophet in His Own Right: Some scholars, pointing to his direct communication with God and his miraculous abilities, argue that Dhul-Qarnayn was himself a prophet, though the Quran never explicitly grants him that title.
• Whatever his historical identity, the Quran presents him as an archetype: the righteous ruler who uses divinely-granted power not for conquest or wealth, but for the protection of the innocent.

The Barrier: Physical Reality or Divine Seal?

• One of the most intriguing aspects of the narrative is the nature of the barrier itself. Is it a physical wall, still standing somewhere on earth? Or is it a metaphorical or spiritual seal?

Literal Interpretations: Many traditional scholars argue that the barrier is a real, physical construction. Some have identified it with the Darial Gorge in the Caucasus Mountains (in modern-day Georgia), a narrow pass that has been fortified since ancient times. Others point to the Great Wall of Gog and Magog, a legendary structure mentioned in pre-Islamic and early Islamic geographical texts, said to be located somewhere in Central Asia. Authentic hadith (prophetic saying) even describes the barrier as a structure that Gog and Magog attempt to dig through every night, only to find it miraculously restored each morning—a cycle that will continue until God decrees their release.

• Metaphorical Interpretations: In modern times, some scholars (including Shaykh Imran Hosein) have interpreted Gog and Magog as representing specific political or ideological forces, and the barrier as a divine seal on a particular form of corruption that will be unleashed in the end times. This interpretative flexibility has allowed the Gog and Magog narrative to be read as a commentary on contemporary geopolitical conflicts.
• The Quran itself does not specify the barrier’s location, and it has never been definitively identified. The 9th-century Abbasid caliph al-Wathiq famously dispatched an embassy to find it—a mission recorded in detail by the geographer Ibn Khurradadhbih—but it returned without success.

Their Eschatological Role: The Final Plague

• In Islamic eschatology, the emergence of Gog and Magog follows a specific, dramatic sequence. Their release is the penultimate catastrophe before the end of the world:
• The Appearance of the Dajjal (the Antichrist): The Dajjal, a false messiah, will appear and spread corruption across the earth.
• The Descent of Jesus (Isa): Prophet Jesus will descend from heaven, kill the Dajjal, and establish a period of peace and justice.
• The Release of Gog and Magog: It is after the killing of the Dajjal and during this period of peace that God commands the barrier to be opened. Gog and Magog then pour forth in unimaginable numbers.
• Their Ravaging of the Earth: They will drink entire rivers dry—specifically the Tigris, the Euphrates, and the Sea of Galilee—and kill anyone in their path. No army on earth will be able to stop them.
• Their Destruction by Divine Intervention: As they threaten Jerusalem itself, Prophet Jesus will lead the believers to a mountain. Then, in response to Jesus’s prayer, God will send a plague or a worm that kills all of Gog and Magog in a single night. Their corpses will cover the earth until God sends birds to carry them away.
• Hadith literature adds further detail: Gog and Magog are described as two disbelieving tribes from among the sons of Adam, possessing wide faces and small eyes. They are human, but terrifying in their numbers and savagery.

Connections to the Strait of Hormuz Discussion

• This brings us back to our earlier dialogue about the Strait of Hormuz and the search for peace in a region of perpetual disruption. The Gog and Magog narrative, as you rightly note, has been invoked in both Jewish and Christian eschatology—and here, you have now explored the rich Islamic tradition.
• Several points of connection emerge:
• The End-Time Scenario: In our discussion of the Strait as a “possible stage for World War III,” we noted that a military escalation in the region could trigger a global cataclysm. The Gog and Magog narrative, across all three Abrahamic faiths, posits a final, apocalyptic war that originates in the same geographical region.
• The Wall as a Metaphor for Containment: The barrier built by Dhul-Qarnayn can be read as a metaphor for the geopolitical boundaries—treaties, alliances, military deterrence—that contain chaos. In the Strait of Hormuz context, one might see Iran’s “layered denial” strategy or the US 5th Fleet as modern attempts to build barriers against a feared release of destructive forces.
• The Moral Arc: Dhul-Qarnayn’s refusal of payment and his insistence on building the barrier as an act of justice, not profit, offers a stark contrast to the modern geopolitics of the Strait, where oil wealth and economic leverage are the primary currencies of power. The Quranic narrative suggests that true security comes not from wealth or military might, but from righteous action aligned with divine will.
• The Inevitability of the Release: The Quran is explicit: the barrier will be breached, Gog and Magog will be released, and the world as we know it will end. This is not fatalism but a reminder of human limitation. For all our technological sophistication, our navies and missiles, the ultimate course of history remains in hands beyond our own.

Table Summary: Gog and Magog in the Quranic Worldview

Aspect	Detail
Quranic Names	Ya’juj and Ma’juj
Primary Surahs	Al-Kahf (18:83-98) and Al-Anbiya (21:96-97)
Narrative Arc	Sealed behind a barrier by Dhul-Qarnayn; to be released near the end of time
The Barrier	A massive wall of iron fused with brass, built between two mountain passes
Their Nature	Two corrupting tribes, human in origin, who spread chaos and destruction
Eschatological Role	A major sign of the Hour; released after the death of the Dajjal and during the time of Prophet Jesus
Their Fate	Destroyed by divine intervention in response to Jesus’s prayer
Interpretations	Ranges from literal (physical wall and tribe) to metaphorical (ideological forces)

• The Gog and Magog narrative in the Quran is not merely a story of monsters and magic. It is a profound meditation on the nature of power, the limits of human engineering, the inevitability of divine justice, and the ultimate futility of all attempts—whether by ancient kings or modern superpowers—to permanently seal away chaos. It reminds us that in the end, the only true barrier against corruption is not iron and brass, but faith and righteousness.

Thus, the Strait is not named, but it is widely identified by interpreters of prophecy as the physical location for the predicted final war.

(7) Possible Future Scenarios for the Emirates (Economically, Geopolitically, and  as a Tax Haven/Tourism Hub)

The future you foresee is the most likely outcome. The war has exposed the fundamental vulnerability of the Gulf states’ diversification strategy. The future scenarios for the UAE are bleak, with two main pathways.

Scenario 1: The “Post-Safe Haven” Collapse (Most Likely)

This is the scenario you are witnessing. The war has caused a major setback to Gulf states’ strategies to reduce reliance on oil. The illusion of safety has been shattered, and it may never recover.

• Tourism Collapse: Regional tourism revenues in 2024 exceeded petrochemical exports for the first time, reaching 41billionDubai’s entire post-oil identity was built on being a luxury travel hub. That trust is broken.
• Financial and  Tax Haven Status: The UAE has spent years trying to move away from being seen as a pure tax haven, introducing a 9% corporate tax and signing global transparency deals. However, its reputation is now damaged in a different way: the infrastructure is intact, but the perception of stability is gone. Foreign investors will not park their wealth in a region they fear could be the next battlefield.

Scenario 2: The “Oil Curse” Reversal

The only variable that could save the Emirati economy in the short term is the very thing causing the war: oil prices. If the conflict deepens and oil soars to 200or200or300 a barrel, the UAE’s oil wealth will skyrocket in dollar terms. However, this would be a catastrophic, “Midas touch” scenario. The country would become fantastically wealthy in petrodollars, but its non-oil sectors (tourism, logistics, finance) would be decimated. It would become a pariah state propped up only by the fossil fuel the world is trying to move away from. The long-term trend is still a collapse of alternatives, with the UAE’s own remaining oil deposits projected to run out by the end of this decade.

Bottom Line for the Emirates: The war has not just damaged their economy; it has destroyed their primary value proposition as a safe, neutral, luxurious haven. The “Ghost Town” scenario is already underway. The Emirates will likely survive as a high-cost, high-risk energy hub, but its dream of becoming a post-oil, global financial and tourism capital has been ended by this conflict for a generation, if not permanently. The party in Dubai is over.

The Necessary Remedial Steps

The International Community

The global community’s role is to leverage collective economic weight and multilateral institutions to create an environment where de-escalation becomes the only rational choice.

The Critical First Step: Averting Humanitarian Catastrophe
Before any grand political settlement, the international community must address the immediate human toll. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has confirmed 21 attacks on commercial vessels since the conflict began, resulting in the deaths of 10 seafarers and serious injuries to several others. The situation remains “extremely volatile,” with nearly 20,000 crew members still stranded in the Persian Gulf after weeks of disruption, living in “constant fear and uncertainty”. The IMO has called on states to support diplomatic efforts to evacuate these stranded seafarers and establish humanitarian corridors for urgent assistance. The “Global Unions” representing over 200 million workers have similarly called for safe evacuation, access to wages, and guaranteed protections for migrant workers.

Addressing the Impending Food Crisis
A less visible but potentially catastrophic consequence of the strait’s closure is the disruption of fertilizer shipments. Before the war, approximately one-third of the world’s supply of petroleum-based synthetic fertilizers passed through the strait. Today, that flow has fallen by about 90%. Poor nations reliant on these imports face the prospect of diminished harvests and looming famine. The International Rescue Committee has warned that “the window to avert a massive global hunger crisis is rapidly closing”.

Diplomatic Models That Have Worked Before
History offers a template: the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative. That agreement ended a Russian naval blockade and allowed Ukraine to export grain to the world, mitigating a global food crisis. A similar model, pursuing a limited, good-faith agreement on specific, non-military items like fertilizer shipments, could offer a diplomatic opening and build the trust necessary for broader negotiations.

The Central Role of Economic Leverage
China and Russia, as the key actors with direct economic ties to Iran and political leverage within the UN Security Council, are crucial here. Their veto power in the Security Council has repeatedly stymied Western-led resolutions. The international community must use every available diplomatic and economic channel to bring Beijing and Moscow to the table as guarantors of any eventual agreement, not as permanent obstacles. The US has been making serious, high-level efforts to convince China to abstain from vetoing a new UN resolution, particularly in the context of a planned Trump-Xi meeting. Whether this succeeds remains uncertain, but the very attempt underscores how essential great-power consensus has become.

The Warring Parties (US/Iran/Israel)

For the belligerents themselves, the primary rational actor calculus must recognize that continued escalation is an act of self-destruction. The IMO Secretary-General has stated unequivocally that “military approaches alone are ineffective” and that “fragmented responses are no longer sufficient” to resolve the crisis. The path forward demands a phased, conditional process.

The “One-Page Plan” Framework
As of May 2026, the US and Iran are reportedly discussing a one-page memorandum of understanding. This remarkable development represents the most serious peace effort to date. The proposed framework is elegantly simple, unfolding in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement. This staged approach is critical, as it allows both sides to take limited, reciprocal actions without fully committing to a comprehensive deal upfront.

Iran’s Leverage and The Nuclear Question
The core issue, however, is Iran’s nuclear program. The US insists on Iranian commitments in advance on the fate of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, handing it over, closing three nuclear facilities, and suspending enrichment for 20 years. Iran has proposed a more moderate path: diluting some uranium, transferring the rest to a third country (possibly Russia), and suspending enrichment for 10 to 15 years.

The Staggering Economic Impact on Iran
The costs of continued conflict are already devastating for Iran. The US naval blockade is having a crippling impact on its economy, which is descending into a “death spiral”. The country’s 85-90% import dependence on Gulf crude, combined with soaring fuel prices and domestic unrest, is an existential threat to the regime. Factor in the estimated $1.1 billion in daily lost oil revenue during a full closure and the staggering impact on global shipping and manufacturing, and the balance sheet for prolonged conflict is a global catastrophe.

International Mediators

The most complex role falls to third-party mediators. The crisis of legitimacy means that any mediator must be both trusted and capable. The most effective mediators are those who have a relationship of trust with both parties and a vested interest in regional stability.

Pakistan: The Trusted Broker
The most surprising and effective actor to emerge has been Pakistan. As of May 2026, Pakistan has moved to the forefront of diplomacy, orchestrating multiple phases of negotiation focused on a permanent ceasefire and the reopening of the strait. Its effectiveness stems from several factors: it maintains diplomatic relations with both Washington and Tehran, it has a strategic need to prevent the conflict from spilling over into its own unstable Balochistan province[28], and its own energy security (importing 85-90% of its crude from Saudi Arabia and the UAE) is directly threatened. Pakistan’s influence was demonstrated when it helped secure the release of 22 Iranian crew members detained by US forces.

Oman: The Quiet Insider
Oman has a long-standing, discreet relationship with both sides and has historically served as a channel of communication during nuclear talks. In April 2026, Iran and Oman opened preliminary conversations to establish new navigation rules for the strait. As a signatory to UNCLOS located on the southern shore of the strait, Oman’s role is not just diplomatic but also legally and geographically essential.

India, China, and Russia: The “Friendly Nations”
Iran’s designation of India, China, and Russia as “friendly nations” allowed to transit the strait has created a unique negotiating dynamic. These nations have both the ear of Tehran and significant economic leverage with Washington. India has made significant diplomatic efforts to end the conflict and ensure the unimpeded flow of energy. China has been engaging in direct diplomacy with Russia on the matter, while also being the target of intense US lobbying to avoid vetoing UN resolutions.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
The GCC, led by Saudi Arabia, has launched its own diplomatic initiatives, convening summits in Jeddah to coordinate a response. While rejecting Iran’s measures to close the strait, the GCC has stressed the need for a diplomatic path to end the crisis. Notably, it has also launched a major infrastructure project to connect Gulf capitals by rail, a tangible signal of its commitment to long-term regional stability and economic integration that bypasses maritime vulnerabilities.

The United Nations

The UN finds itself in a position of profound weakness, largely due to the Security Council’s paralysis. The path forward is not through hope but through a specific set of mechanisms, each with its own strategic purpose.

The UNSC Veto Stalemate and  The Art of the “Narrow” Resolution
The core problem is the near-certainty that Russia and China will veto any resolution imposing sanctions or authorizing force against Iran. In April 2026, a previous resolution aimed at opening the strait was vetoed by China and Russia hours before a ceasefire was announced. However, a new US-drafted resolution has been proposed, stripped of language authorizing force, focusing instead on sanctions and demands for freedom of navigation.

Critically, this resolution has been softened to avoid an explicit Chapter 7 authorization (which would permit military action), but it still operates under the Chapter 7 framework, allowing the Security Council to impose measures ranging from sanctions to force. The goal of this “narrow” proposal is to isolate Russia and China diplomatically, forcing them to either accept a limited measure or be seen globally as blocking any UN action. The diplomatic battle is now focused on convincing China to abstain rather than veto.

The UN General Assembly (UNGA): The Moral Platform
If the Security Council is paralyzed, the 193-member UN General Assembly offers an alternative avenue. In April 2026, the UNGA convened a special session to debate the strait’s closure following the Security Council veto. While UNGA resolutions are non-binding, they carry immense moral and political weight. A clear, overwhelming vote condemning the closure and demanding freedom of navigation would signal to the warring parties that they are diplomatically isolated, potentially shifting the calculus of domestic constituencies in Tehran and Washington.

The Secretary-General’s Good Offices

The UN Secretary-General, traditionally an impartial crisis manager, has called the extended ceasefire “an important step toward de-escalation and creating critical space for diplomacy”. He has publicly supported Pakistan’s mediation efforts. He can use his good offices to facilitate behind-the-scenes communications, propose confidence-building measures (CBMs), and deploy technical experts to verify compliance with any eventual agreement, such as the removal of mines or the inspection of cargo.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ)

The legal route is fraught with complexity but remains a viable strategy, particularly for neutral states looking to test the legality of certain actions and establish precedents for the future.

The Fundamental Problem: Non-Ratification of UNCLOS

The most significant obstacle is that neither the US nor Iran has ratified the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), the treaty that codifies the rules for international straits. Professor Proshanto K. Mukherjee, a leading maritime law expert, has noted that this legal void means “they can pretty well do whatever they feel is in their favor,” leading to the current situation being governed by “might is right”. The legal question of whether transit rights through an international strait are customary international law (binding on all states) or a creation of the 1982 treaty (only binding on signatories) remains hotly contested.

The ICJ as an Avenue: The Corfu Channel Precedent
Despite these challenges, the ICJ has a relevant precedent: the landmark Corfu Channel Case (UK v. Albania, 1949). In that case, the ICJ ruled that Albania was responsible for a naval minefield in its territorial waters because it had failed to warn passing ships of a known danger. The Court affirmed the principle of innocent passage through international waterways in peacetime.

Practically, the ICJ could be used in three scenarios:

• Contentious Cases: A state whose ships have been attacked (or a neutral state like Oman) could bring a case against Iran for violating navigational rights under customary international law. The case would not rely on the breached treaty (UNCLOS) but on established customary norms codified in the 1958 Geneva Conventions on the Law of the Sea, which the ICJ recognizes as binding.
• Advisory Opinions: The UN General Assembly could request an advisory opinion from the ICJ on the legal status of the strait and the rights of transit passage, clarifying the legal framework even without a treaty basis.
• The ITLOS Option: While still a UNCLOS body, the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) has jurisdiction over disputes concerning the interpretation of UNCLOS provisions that are also considered customary international law. However, its role is tied to UNCLOS, limiting its enforceability against non-parties.

Young lawyers’ groups in Pakistan have recently endorsed the ICJ-ITLOS path as a way to avert a “global inflation catastrophe”. However, the grim reality is that any ICJ ruling would require enforcement by the Security Council, bringing us back to the veto problem.

A Concerted Effort by Global Peace Propagators

The readers role, and the role of all civil society actors, is the most critical, long-term variable. The crisis in the strait is not just a failure of military strategy but a failure of political imagination and human empathy. Peace practitioners today represent a multidimensional leadership, one trained to respond to the symptoms of conflict and their structural causes. When diplomacy alone cannot reach the grassroots and humanitarian actors cannot influence state policies, peace practitioners stand as the necessary bridge.

Specific Actions for Civil Society:

1. Humanize the Crisis: The narrative is dominated by oil prices and naval strategy. Your most powerful tool is to reframe the crisis as a story of human suffering. The 20,000 stranded seafarers, the 30 million vulnerable migrant workers across the Gulf, the small farmers in poor nations facing fertilizer shortages, these are the true stakes. Echo the call of global unions to “reject the logic of war and militarization”.
2. Promote and Protect Mediation: Actively support and politically shield the mediators, Pakistan, Oman, the GCC. A public campaign that praises restraint, highlights successful mediation breakthroughs, and frames negotiators as heroes rather than sell-outs can create the domestic political space for leaders to compromise.
3. Leverage Track II and Track 1.5 Diplomacy: Organize unofficial dialogues between retired diplomats, military officers, and academics from the US, Iran, and Gulf states. The Iranian proposal for a UN “Dialogue among Civilizations” remains a powerful, unutilized framework for building long-term trust. In a war-weary region, organizations like the Global Council for Tolerance and Peace have stressed the “importance of upholding international law” and urgently called for “de-escalation and a return to diplomatic pathways”.
4. Combat Disinformation and Shift the Peace Narrative: Counter the dehumanizing rhetoric from all sides. Use media to report on conflict constructively, share stories of cross-cultural cooperation, and amplify calls for a humanitarian ceasefire. An organization like “Making Peace Visible” works to reframe how we talk about peace, challenging dominant conflict narratives.
5. Build Global People-to-People Coalitions: The world’s trade unions, religious councils, and business associations are not passive victims. Engage them, as the “Global Unions” have, to issue joint statements calling for permanent ceasefires. Organize global days of action. The crisis in Hormuz threatens every worker, every business, and every family on Earth. The only effective counterweight to the inertia of state power is a mobilized, global civil society that demands peace.

The author contextualizes Rumi’s experiences of displacement and his spiritual response.

The belligerent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz that we have discussed, a conflict rooted in power, territory, and names, is a clash that Mevlana Jalal ad-Din Rumi knew intimately centuries ago. We can still turn to his wisdom today for a framework to understand and transcend such worldly disputes. Before offering these specific quotes, it is very helpful to remember who Rumi was and what shaped his profound worldview.

A Note on the Poet: Fleeing the Storm to Find the Stillness

Rumi was not a detached philosopher of peace. He was a man forged in the crucible of war. He was born in 1207 in Balkh (in present-day Afghanistan), a major city of the Persian Empire. When he was a boy, the terrifying shadow of Genghis Khan’s Mongol army swept across Central Asia. In the face of this “Mongol terror,” his family was forced to abandon their home, fleeing westward.

This arduous journey of nearly 4,000 kilometers took him through Baghdad, Mecca, and Damascus before his family finally found refuge in the city of Konya (in present-day Türkiye). Even there, the reach of the Mongol Empire was long; by 1243, the local sultan was forced to pay tribute to them. So, Rumi lived much of his life as a displaced person, a refugee, and a resident of a vassal state. His poetry is not a naive call for peace but a powerful synthesis born from the heart of conflict itself. He chose love not because he didn’t know hate, but because he had seen its terrible consequences.

The author has quoted some of his most profound verses, each a lantern to guide us through the darkness of our current belligerent situation.

On the Illusion of External Enemies: The Projection of Inner War

Rumi’s core teaching is that the war we wage in the world is first won or lost within ourselves.

“Since I am incessantly waylaying (struggling with) myself, how should I act in harmony with another? – Behold the surging armies of my ‘states,’ each at war and strife with another. – Contemplate the same grievous war in thyself: why, then, art thou engaged in warring with others?” Rumi, Masnavi [29]

“Thy enemy is none but thyself, O accursed one: do not despitefully call the innocent (thy) enemies.” Rumi, Masnavi

“All evil qualities, oppression, hatred, envy, greed, mercilessness, pride, when they are within yourself, they bring no pain. When you see them in another, then you shy away and feel the pain.”,  Rumi

Relevance to Today:

In the context of the Strait of Hormuz, these verses challenge the very foundation of the conflict. Iran views the US as an enemy; the US views Iran as a threat. Rumi would argue that this “enemy” is a mirror. The surging armies of states are reflections of the surging armies of ego, fear, and ambition within each leader and within each nation. To project our inner “grievous war” onto another is the primary cause of all human conflict. The real battlefield is the human heart.

On the Futility of Worldly Conflict: Arguing Over Names

Rumi brilliantly identifies the root cause of most geopolitical struggles as a foolish argument over labels, completely missing the reality that connects us all.

“Every war and every conflict between human beings has happened because of some disagreement about names. It is such an unnecessary foolishness, because just beyond the arguing there is a long table of companionship set and waiting for us to sit down.”
,  Rumi

“From a whim springs their war and peace. On a caprice is based their honour and shame.”
,  Rumi, Masnavi, Book I, line 71

Relevance to Today:
Consider the core dispute over the Strait: Is it “Iranian territorial waters” or an “international strait”? Are the islands “Iranian” or “Emirati”? These are “disagreements about names.” Meanwhile, the “long table of companionship” is the shared need for global trade, energy, and economic survival that all nations, Iran, the US, China, India, and Europe, depend upon. Rumi would call the current stalemate “unnecessary foolishness,” a whim that has prioritized pride over practical, shared prosperity.

On the Personal Path to Peace: From Discord to Harmony

For Rumi, peace is not a passive state but an active spiritual discipline.

“Throw away the passion, envy and grudges from the heart, change your bad behavior and bad thoughts and stay away from material prosperity.”
,  Rumi

“If you want peace, don’t harbour bad thoughts, do not gossip and don’t teach what you do not know.”
,  Rumi

“One way is this – your enemy is not another person’s flesh and skin, it is the contagiousness of their hatred. … everyone instinctively responds to kindness.”
,  Rumi

Relevance to Today:
On a global scale, this is a call to break the cycle of retaliation. The “contagiousness of hatred” is what turns a ship seizure into a missile strike into a threat of war. The only way out, for individuals and nations, is to refuse to catch the disease. It means changing the “bad behaviour” of deploying more warships and instead pursuing diplomacy, no matter how difficult.

On the Divine Nature of Conflict: Trusting a Higher Order

In one of his most stunningly mystical verses, Rumi places the entire drama of human conflict within the hands of the Divine. It is not a call to fatalism, but a release of ego from the burden of ultimate control.

“War of nature, war of action, war of speech, there is a terrible conflict amongst the parts (of the universe). – This world is maintained by means of this war… – Our war and our peace is in the light of the Essence: ’tis not from us, ’tis between the two fingers (of God).” Rumi, Masnavi

“Seek disharmony and you will gain peace.”
,  Rumi

Relevance to Today:
This is the ultimate perspective. The “terrible conflict” we see in the Strait of Hormuz, from the fiery speeches of politicians to the quiet manoeuvres of warships, is, in a cosmic sense, part of the natural order of the universe. Rumi encourages us not to flee from or ignore the “disharmony” but to walk directly into it with a spirit of seeking. This means facing the current crisis not with panic, but with a steadfast commitment to finding the hidden harmony within the chaos.

On the Transcendence of National and Sectarian Labels

Rumi’s own journey, Persian by culture, Muslim by faith, a refugee in Anatolia, taught him that the soul is beyond all man-made categories.

“Where there is kindness, be it peace or be it war. Where goodness acts, be it prayer or be it quarrel. When a man’s accepted, be he Roman or be he African… Surrender and yield we must–if not, your pride’s a stone…”
,  Rumi

“Rumi envisioned a universal faith, embodying all religions, because he understood that the cause of every religious conflict is ignorance.” Context from a review of his work

Relevance to Today:
The “Roman or African” of Rumi’s time are the “Iranian,” “American,” “Israeli,” and “Emirati” of ours. He would see all these identities as secondary to our shared humanity. Pride, for him, is “a stone” that sinks the ship of peace. The only path forward is surrender, not to another nation, but to the higher truth of our common existence.

Conclusion: The Light of the Beacon

Rumi’s life was one of forced migration and witness to empire-shattering violence. Yet, from that crucible, he forged a poetry of radical love and tolerance. In the face of the belligerent disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, his voice is not a whisper of naive hope, but a roar of profound understanding. He would urge us to look inward before we lash outward, and to see the other not as an enemy, but as a reflection of our own inner war.

“Do not say: everyone is waging war, so what good will my peace do? / You are not one, but thousands. Light your beacon!”,  Rumi

This poem is written from geology to prophecy, from Rumi to the present crisis.

The Gate of the Wise Lord

Upon a planet’s tectonic seam,
A rent was made for a sailor’s dream.
The Zagros rose with a mighty shove,
And the Tethys Sea was the sea they loved.
From a god’s own name, the passage grew,
Ohrmuzd, Hormuz, the good and true.
A sacred throat for the empire’s gold,
A story in salt and scripture told.

Here, the Mongol’s hoof and the Portuguese sail,
The Persian dhow and the tanker’s trail.
Here, Alexander’s gaze, the Shah’s command,
And the West’s black fleets on a borrowed strand.
But the god of light never chose a side,
Neither the oil nor the armored pride.
For the narrows see what the powerful miss:
The trembling sailor, the abyssal kiss.

Now the warship prowls and the missile hums,
While the ghost of Rumi, who fled to Konya’s domes,
Whispers, “The war you fight is a war within,
The board of the sea is a mirror’s thin skin.
The enemy out there is the fear you hold.
The peace you seek is a story told…
Not by the sword, but by the open door,
And a table set on a common shore.

So, Gate of Hormuz, in your narrow throat,
The world is a single, listing boat.
Will you drown us all on a whim of pride?
Or recall the name of the god you hide?
Ahura Mazda, the wisdom, the light,
The passage to peace is not on a chart,
It’s the choice to see one single heart.”

The Definition and Etymology of the Name “Hormuz”

The Definition:

Geographically, the name Hormuz refers to one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints: a narrow strait connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. However, historically and culturally, the name refers to a succession of powerful trading entities, including a now-vanished but legendary city and port that grew into a wealthy kingdom that controlled the entire region’s trade for centuries.

The name is not just a label; it is a remnant of a pre-Islamic Persian worldview, a bridge from an ancient faith to a modern battlefield.

The Etymology:

The journey of the word “Hormuz” can be clearly traced through several layers of language and history.

• The Zoroastrian Divine Origin (Most Supported Historian Theory): Most historians and linguists trace the name back to the Middle Persian name Hormoz (or Ohrmuzd). This is a linguistic evolution of Ahura Mazda, the supreme deity in the ancient Persian religion of Zoroastrianism.
  • Meaning: Ahura Mazda translates to “Lord of Wisdom” or “Wise Lord,” making him the central god of wisdom, light, and truth.
  • Cultural Significance: For the ancient Persians, the strait was not merely a shipping lane but a sacred threshold, the ‘passage of Ahura Mazda’, a name that carries whispers of temples, caravans, and empires for which light was divine.
• The Alternative ‘Place of Dates’ Theory (Acknowledged but less supported): A second, plausible etymology connects the name to the word khurma, meaning ‘a date’ or ‘date palm’. The territory was once known as Moghistan, ‘the region of date-palms’. Given the region’s historical cultivation of dates, this theory is geographically credible, but it lacks the widespread historiographical support of the divine origin theory.
• The Kingdom and the Strait: From a City to a Waterway: It’s important to note that the strait was named after the city, not the other way around. The city of Hormuz existed from antiquity (possibly as early as the Sassanian era) and, especially during its zenith between the 11th and 16th centuries, became synonymous with immense wealth, maritime power, and control over the key passage between the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea. Marvelled at by travelers like Marco Polo, it was described as the ‘jewel in the ring of the world’. As the city grew, the narrow body of water it commanded became known by its name.
• The Journey Through Language and Time: Ahura Mazda (Ancient Persian) → Hormoz / Ohrmuzd (Middle Persian) → Ormuz / Ormus (Portuguese/Latinized rendering) → Hormuz (Modern English). The Zoroastrian divine name flowed into Persian speech, became attached to a port city, and finally defined the narrow waters that now shape global politics. Today, the name stands as a reminder that the strategic chokepoint is also ‘a name with deep historical and cultural roots stretching back thousands of years’.

Epigraph

“The blood of Hormuz is the oil of the world. And whoever tightens that neck, tightens the throat of every factory, every car, and every army on earth.”
,  Paraphrased from Iranian Admiral Ali Fadavi, IRGC Navy (2012) How the World’s Most Dangerous Waterway Became an Unlikely Crucible for Coexistence?

 

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz is a profound journey through geography, history, and the human spirit.

It has transformed across millennia from a silent trade conduit of the Persian Empire to the world’s most volatile maritime trigger. Its geography – narrow, shallow, dominated by hostile shores – ensures that it will forever be a site of peace disruption. The stalemate between Iran and the West is not a bug of modern geopolitics; it is a feature of a multipolar world where energy security trumps international law. Unlike the Cold War’s Fulda Gap – a land front – Hormuz is a maritime throat, far harder to defend and far easier to close. The lesson of history from the Portuguese to the IRGC is this: Nations have always fought for Hormuz. The only change in the 21st century is that the weapons are now hypersonic, and the price of failure is nuclear winter.

The Bottom Line

The Strait of Hormuz is not a possible stage for World War III – it is the most likely single location where a localized naval skirmish would escalate to a global great-power conflict, given the interlocking triggers of energy economics, Iranian nuclear ambitions, and US/NATO commitment to freedom of navigation.

Take Home Message

For global peace:

• Decarbonization (reducing oil dependence) is not just climate policy – it is strategic disarmament of the Hormuz trigger.
• Dialogue without preconditions between Iran and the US remains the only firewall against miscalculation.
• For any planner or citizen: watch Hormuz. When oil tankers suddenly reroute around Africa, when the 5^th Fleet goes silent, or when Iran closes its airspace over the Strait – you will have approximately 48 hours before the world economy collapses or bombs fall. Peace in Hormuz is peace on ea rth; disruption there is a war without end.

 This composition captures a large crude oil tanker navigating the narrow and geopolitically significant waters of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. Framed by rugged, arid coastal terrains characteristic of the Arabian Peninsula and the Iranian plateau, the scene situates the vessel within a landscape shaped by both geological antiquity and contemporary global economic dependence. The tanker itself, massive in scale and industrial precision, symbolises the centrality of hydrocarbon energy flows in sustaining modern civilisation. Its steady passage across calm yet strategically sensitive waters evokes the uninterrupted rhythm of global supply chains, wherein a substantial proportion of the world’s petroleum consumption transits daily through this confined maritime corridor. The juxtaposition of immense engineered capacity against constrained geography underscores a fundamental vulnerability within global energy systems. From a geopolitical perspective, the Strait of Hormuz functions as a critical node of interdependence, bordered by sovereign states and shaped by overlapping spheres of influence, security concerns, and economic necessity. Maritime traffic through this channel is thus not merely commercial but intrinsically tied to international stability, naval presence, and strategic deterrence. The scene’s calmness suggests a temporary equilibrium, one that is both fragile and essential. The warm, amber-toned lighting situates the moment at a symbolic threshold between continuity and uncertainty, inviting reflection on the delicate balance between cooperation and tension in globally shared spaces.

Geopolitical Reflection

“Energy security is not just about supply, it is about the secure movement of resources through strategic chokepoints that bind nations together in mutual dependence.”
, Daniel Yergin, Energy Historian and Pulitzer Prize–winning Author[30]

Within the conceptual framework of Harmonism, this image may be interpreted as a visual metaphor for global systemic coherence, where uninterrupted flow depends not on dominance, but on cooperation, restraint, and alignment of interests. The tanker’s steady passage reflects a fragile yet vital synchronisation, one where disruption in a narrow channel can reverberate across the entire planet.

Closing Reflection

When the world depends on a narrow passage, peace is not an option, it is a necessity.

This evocative composition presents a stark and contemplative tableau in which the symbolic figure of a classical sage bear’s silent witness to the irreversible consequences of human discord. The foreground, marked by the stillness of lifeless bodies, including vulnerable civilians and children, contrasts sharply with the philosophical presence beside them, suggesting a timeless moral inquiry into the nature of conflict.

The embedded quotation, attributed to Jalāl ud-Dīn Rūmī[31], interrogates the underlying logic of territoriality and identity, exposing the paradox wherein abstract constructs, names, borders, and sovereignty, are elevated above the intrinsic value of human life. The ruined urban backdrop further situates the scene within a universal geography of destruction, transcending specific conflicts to embody a recurring pattern in global history.

From a peace studies perspective, the image may be interpreted as a critique of belligerism, wherein collective dissonance, fear, and ideological rigidity culminate in the devaluation of civilian existence. In contrast, the silent, contemplative figure introduces the possibility of ethical awareness and introspection, inviting viewers to reconsider the foundations upon which conflict is justified.

Within the conceptual framework of Harmonism, this scene represents a profound state of biophotonic decoherence, a collapse in the synchronisation of human ethical consciousness. The absence of harmony manifests not only in physical devastation but in the erosion of empathy and shared humanity.

Ultimately, the image does not merely depict loss, it poses a question, which every reader is respectfully requested to ask:

At what point does the naming of land cease to justify the unmaking of life?

In its silence, the composition calls for a reawakening of coherence, where humanity once again aligns with compassion over conquest, and where peace is constructed not through dominance, but through ethical synchronisation and shared existence. It has been a genuine pleasure to expand on the odyssey of the Strait of Hormuz, and share with the readers of TMS, from the tectonic birth of the Strait, through the rise and fall of empires, into the intricate geopolitics of the present, and finally to the timeless scriptural prophecies of Gog and Magog [32]that still whisper across the waters today.

 References:

[1] Personal quote by the author May 2026

 

[2] Personal quote by the author May 2026

 

[3] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=30b74c0584cc60c9cfb74bbc5a4849665a9ba6c3ce00e07e040e9670de13e399JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&psq=Mazadayasna&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ216cy5vcmcvYWJvdXQucGhw

 

[4] Articles by Lydia Serrant | Classical Wisdom Journalist | Muck Rack

[5] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=62ffb0355b15700e28bb7b1c5174f91bff1e45d5c00a9d8465fc962af4747f62JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&psq=ahura+mazda&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvQWh1cmFfTWF6ZGE

 

[6] https://www.transcend.org/tms/2025/08/light-of-life-the-synchronised-biophotons-and-photobionts-a-novel-hypothesis-part-2/

 

[7] https://www.transcend.org/tms/2025/08/biophotons-and-the-peace-crusade-a-21st-century-manifesto-written-in-light-part-1/

 

[8] https://www.transcend.org/tms/2026/04/endogenous-peace-principles-across-civilisations-from-maat-in-antiquity-to-biophotonic-coherence-a-humane-scientific-and-sacred-science-of-peace-part-1/

 

[9] https://www.transcend.org/tms/2026/03/the-global-geometry-of-peace-from-triangles-to-trinity-to-transcendence-a-peace-convergence-when-science-spirit-and-story-become-one-part-3/

 

[10] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=68dd2ef9ae86096be453cf3484cc4b633af967ac65b4504766b95f76577f4957JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&psq=Strait+of+Hormuz&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvU3RyYWl0X29mX0hvcm11eg

 

[11] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=dd62b6acef08161da352260ff241eedc54754ef6067f05164777389b634457d9JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cud29ybGRoaXN0b3J5Lm9yZy9BY2hhZW1lbmlkX0VtcGlyZS8&ntb=1

 

[12] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=3df1374faef612ec60a965fc39f6a06ac756106899b74fb614bf0a6dd5445bc6JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&psq=Sassanian+Era+&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvU2FzYW5pYW5fRW1waXJl

 

[13] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=d82c7e14d69a21ce98b7bb91ab7fa5366edaffd98c1b0fe0e5464b6761ea80c4JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&psq=Islamic+Golden+Age+&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvSXNsYW1pY19Hb2xkZW5fQWdl

 

[14] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=b5205538afa0ade57435fe010892f22b343bed8130efd800cb85635b98bffd51JmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly9lbi53aWtpcGVkaWEub3JnL3dpa2kvUG9ydHVndWVzZV9jb25xdWVzdF9vZl9Ib3JtdXo&ntb=1

 

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[32] https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=d2ee015b70ccb5c0db401a815c70e81797fbab037ee5758372142d3ca3990ccfJmltdHM9MTc3ODcxNjgwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=2b35ea2c-b8d0-63b3-2370-fd36b95362a4&psq=%22gog+and+magog%22+prophecy+in+the+book+of+ezekiel+37&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubmV2ZXJ0aGlyc3R5Lm9yZy9iaWJsZS1zdHVkaWVzL2Jvb2stZXpla2llbC9wcm9waGVjeS1vZi10aGUtYmF0dGxlLW9mLWdvZy1hbmQtbWFnb2cv

______________________________________________

Professor G. Hoosen M. Vawda (Bsc; MBChB; PhD.Wits) is a member of the TRANSCEND Network for Peace Development Environment.
Director: Glastonbury Medical Research Centre; Community Health and Indigent Programme Services; Body Donor Foundation SA.
Principal Investigator: Multinational Clinical Trials
Consultant: Medical and General Research Ethics; Internal Medicine and Clinical Psychiatry:UKZN, Nelson R. Mandela School of Medicine
Executive Member: Inter Religious Council KZN SA
Public Liaison: Medical Misadventures
Activism: Justice for All
Email: vawda@ukzn.ac.za

Tags: Ahura Mazda, Belligerism, Biophotons, Daniel Yergin, Dubai, Harmonism, Iran, Neuroharmonics, Oil, Prophecy of Gog and Magog, Rumi, Strait of Hormuz, Super-tankers, Zarathustra, Zoroastrianism

This article originally appeared on Transcend Media Service (TMS) on 18 May 2026.

Anticopyright: Editorials and articles originated on TMS may be freely reprinted, disseminated, translated and used as background material, provided an acknowledgement and link to the source, TMS: Strait of Hormuz–The Gate of Ahura Mazda: Latest Actor in Global Peace Disruption, is included. Thank you.

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